Elections Test 2

Campaign Strategy

A candidate’s overall plan for winning an election. It determines which voter target, what messages to emphasize, where to campaign, and how resources should be spent.

Campaign Tactics

The specific activities used to implement a strategy, such as television advertisements, phone banking, door-to-door canvassing, rallies, and digital advertising.

Strategic campaign decisions

Choices about whether to run for office, which issues to discuss, which positions to adopt, whether to attack an opponent, and hot to distribute campaign resources.

Vote Target

The number of votes a campaign estimates it must receive to win an election. Campaigns use historical turnout, party support, and estimates of persuadable voters to establish these goals

Candidate Base

Voters already likely to support a candidate because of party identification, ideology, or other political loyalties.

Opposition Base

Voters already strongly committed to the opposing candidate. Campaigns generally avoid spending substantial resources trying to convert them.

Persuadable Voters (Swing Voters)

Voters who have not firmly committed to either candidate and whose votes may be influenced by campaigns

Mobilization

Encouraging individuals who already support a candidate to actually turn out and vote.

Persuasion

Convincing undecided voters or supporters of another candidate to change their voting preferences

Resource Allocation

The strategic distribution of campaign money, stand, time, advertising, and volunteers to areas where they are expected to have the largest electoral effect.

Four Principles of Campaign Strategy

1. Identify the electorate - Separate voters into the candidate’s base, the opponent’s base, and undecided voters

2. Use Election Data - Examine polling, registration lists, and previous election results to identify potential supporters

3. Balance Mobilization and Persuasion - Decide whether winning requires higher turnout among existing supporters or converting undecided voters.

   1. Target Resources Strategically - Spend time and money where they are most likely to produce additional votes.

Probability Sample

A sample in which members of the target population have a known probability of selection. Properly designed probability samples allow researchers to estimate broader public attitudes without interviewing everyone

Margin of Error

An estimate of statistical uncertainty surrounding a survey result caused by sampling. Smaller samples generally have larger margins F

Focus Groups

A small, deliberately selected group of people brought together to discuss candidates, issues, or campaigns

• usually 8-20 people

• helps campaigns understand why voters hold particular opinions

• unlike a probability survey, it is not intended to produce statically representative population estimates

Voter Identification (VOTER ID) Calls

Contacts made by a campaign to deter which candidate a person supports, what issues they care about, or how likely they are to vote.

Voter File

A database of registered voters containing information such as addresses, party registration where available, past voting participation, demographic characteristics

Turnout Propensity Score

A statistical estimate of how likely and individual is to vote

Candidate support Score

A statistical estimate of how likely an individual is to vote for a particular candidate

Persuadability Score

An estimate of how receptive an individual voter may be to changing their candidate preference

Micro targeting

Using detailed voter data, polling, and statistical models to identify specific individuals or small groups and deliver tailored campaign messages.

example: a campaign identifies undecided suburban parents who are especially concerned about education and send advertisements emphasizing its candidate’s education proposals

Differences between traditional polling and micro targeting

Traditional polling measures attitudes among a sample of voters. Micro targeting combines survey information with voter data to predict individual-level behavior and tailor outreach.

Political Reality

The existing circumstances surrounding an election that candidates cannot easily change, inducing partisanship, incumbency, national economic conditions, and the political environment

Retrospective Voting

Voting based on evaluations of past government performance rather than promises about the future

Open Seat Election

An election without an incumbent running. There races can offer challenges better opportunities because no candidate has the advantages of holding office

Strategic Politician

A politician who decides when and where to run based on an assessment of electoral opportunities and the risks of losing

3 Major Considerations in the decision to run

1. Motivation - Whether the candidate actually wants to hold the position and is willing to accept the personal, family, and professional costs

2. Resources - Whether the candidate can raise money, recruit stand, obtain endorsements, and build effective organization

3. Opportunity - Whether the electoral environment provides a realistic chance of winning

Campaign Message

The central argument a candidate communicates to voters about why they should be elected

Issue Priorities

The issues a campaign deliberately emphasizes because they are important to voters or advantageous to the candidate

Framing

Presenting an issue in a way that encourages voters to understand it through a particular issue

Issue Ownership

The belief that one political party is more competent or credible at handling a particular issue

Republican Reputation (focus on)

national security, taxes, crime

Democrats Reputation (focus on)

Health care, education, social security and medicare

Agenda Control

A campaigns attempt to determine which issues dominate public attention performs better on those issues

Issue Trespassing

When a candidate deliberately emphasizes an issue traditionally associated with the opposing party to broaden electoral appeal

Candidate Centered Campaign

A campaign that emphasizes a candidate’s personality, accomplishments, background, or leadership qualities rather than primarily discussing partisan policies

Median Voter Theorem

A political predicting that, under particular assumptions, candidates competing in a 2 candidate selection have incentives to move toward the political position of the median voter

Median Voter

The voter positioned in the middle of the electorate’s ideological distribution, with half the voters on either side

Flip Flipping

Changing political positions in ways that appear opportunistic or inconsistent

Why candidates do not always more to the center

• they may alienate ideological supporter

• Party donors and activists may oppose moderation

• They may appear inconsistent or untrustworthy

• Their previous positions may limit their credibility

• In strongly partisan districts, moderation may be unnecessary to win

Positive Campaigning

Promoting the candidate’s own qualifications, record, policies, and achievements

Negative Campaigning

Criticizing or attacking an opposing candidate’s record, policy positions, qualifications, or personal characteristics

Contrast Advertisement

An advertisement directly comparing candidates and explaining why one is preferable to the other

Attack Advertisement

An advertisement primarily designed to undermine an opponent

Front Runner

Candidate currently perceived to be leading an election

Underdog

Candidate with a weaker electoral position who may need to change voters existing preferences

Why Candidates Attack

Candidates may attack to weaken support for an opponent, attract attention, define an unfamiliar challenger, or shirt discussion toward weaknesses in the opponents record

Negative Campaigning and Timing

Early attacks may influence voters organization rather than directly from the candidate. Such attacks can sometimes appear more credible, though their effectiveness varies.

Outside Group Attacks

Criticism originating from an independent organization rather than directly from the candidate. Such attacks can sometimes appear more credible, though their effectiveness varies.

Research Finding

The electoral effects of negative campaigning are mixed. Negative advertisements ma affect perceptions, but there is considerable uncertainty about their overall effect on vote choice and turnout

Ground Game

Organized person-to-person campaign out reach intended to mobilize and sometimes persuade voters

Canvassing

Directly contacting voters, particularly by going door to door

Phone Banking

Calling voters to deliver messages, identify supporters, or encourage turnout

Ger-Out-The-Vote (GOTV)

Efforts designed to increase turnout among people likely to support a particular candidate

Air War

Campaign communication through mass advertising, social media, steaming platforms, or connected TV

Persuasion Strategy

Concentrating resources on people who already prefer the candidate but might not vote

Mobilization Strategy

Concentrating resources on people who already prefer the candidate but might not vote

Campaign Strategists

Political professional who helps plan a campaigns overall path to victory

Campaign Manager

Person who oversees day to day campaign operations, including staff, schedules, budgeting, and coordination

Chief Strategist

An advisor primarily responsible for high level strategic decisions

Professionalization

The increasing reliance of campaigns on paid specialists, sophisticated data, polling, consultants, and organized operations

Campaign Consultant

A professional hired for specialized political work, such as polling, fundraising, media strategy, voter targeting, or digital outreach

Congressional Campaign

Campaign for a seat in the US house or Senate

Incumbent

A politician who currently holds an office and is seeking reelection

Challenger

A candidate running against an incumbent

Open Seat

A contest in which no incumbent is seeking reelection

Quality Challenger

A candidate with political experience, established connections, fundraising ability, or other credentials that crease competitiveness

Political Amateur

A candidate who has not previously held office and generally lacks the experience and political network of a quality challenger