Current Political Phenom Midterm

3 big IR theories

Realism, liberalism, constructivism

Realism

The world is anarchy, the state is the dominant actor, power/survival matters most, every state for themselves

Liberalism

States have shared interests, can learn to cooperate, trade and build relationships to avoid conflict

Constructivism

Many actors are important, and interests are not fixed but influenced by culture, identity and history; actors choices reflect shaped norms which can be seen differently by different actors, causing conflict

War

Organized military force between 2+ parties with 1000+ deaths

Militarized interstate incident

Single military action involving an explicit threat, display or use of force by one member state against another (2+ states)

Militarized dispute (MID)

Sequence of related militarized incidents, each of which is an outgrowth of or response to one or more previous incidents; must have same set of members (increased since 20th C and Dec in 21st)

Multilateral MID

Set of incidents that are connected in time by issues and location, with 2+ participants

MID outcomes

Victory (favorable change), yield (coerced submission but no change), stalemate (no change/most common), compromise (concessions for each), release (captives let go)

Factors that make interstate war less likely

Proximity (shared access), equality in power, major power status, alliances, democracy (more peaceful overall- monadic or to each other- dyadic), militarization (deterrence)

Factors that make conflict more likely

contiguity (shared border), no alliance, presence of dictatorship

What explains war duration?

Information (leaders disagree and believe each is stronger/will benefit but as info is revealed, likely to concede)

Domestic politics (if war goes bad, people punish leaders; new leaders more likely to end bad war)

State-based conflict

Contested incompatibility that concerns government or territory where the use of armed force between 2 parties (1+ is state gov) resulting in 25+ deaths in a year

Primary vs secondary parties

Primary: hold incompatible positions (one is state gov)

Secondary: states that enter conflict to support one of primary parties

extrasystemic conflict

Between state and non state group outside its own territory (mostly post-colonial conflicts, ex. Algeria war of independence vs France)

Interstate conflict

Both sides are states (Ex. Islas Malvinas war UK vs Argentina)

Intrastate conflict

One side is Gov and other side is 1+ rebel groups

Internationalized intrastate conflict

One side id gov and other side is 1+ rebel groups with involvement of foreign troops (ex Yemen civil war with Saudi supporting Yemen Gov vs Houthi rebels)

Why do ethnic groups rebel?

SEDUP for civil war

S: size of group, E: exclusion, D: downgrade of power status, U: underrepresentation, P: past conflict

Civil war types

Irregular/guerrila: strong state vs weak rebels

Conventional: both sides high military capacity

Symmetric/non conventional: both sides low military capacity

Non state conflict

Use of armed force between 2 organized armed groups, neither is a state gov with at least 25 deaths in year

Levels of nonstate conflict

Level 1: formally organized groups (ex FARC)

Level 2: informally organized groups (ex political party supporters)

Level 3: informally organized groups with shared identity (ex Muslims or Christians)

Vertical vs horizontal inequality

Vertical: diff between individuals in region (wealth, education)

Horizontal: diff in average wealth, etc between ethnic groups in region

Causes of spillover violence

Displaced people, learning (sees violence and copies bc think it’s efficient), emulation (imitating behavior seen as acceptable)

Terrorist attack

Intentional action + violence/threat of violence + non state actor WITH 2/3: political/economic/religious/social goal, coercion to audience beyond victims, and action outside of legit warfare

5 terrorist strategies

SOAAP (imagine big Osama saying soap in an accent)

S: spoiling (derailing peace agreement), O: outbidding (demonstrating more commitment to rep population than rival group), A: attrition (imposing costs until opponent backs down), A: advertising the cause, P; provocation to trigger gov reaction against population to get support

Do terrorists win

survival is different than achieving political goals which is almost never

Conditions for terrorism

High military capacity (bc rebellion harder), weak bureaucratic capacity (harder to track dissidents)

One sided violence

Direct civilian killings by actor, 25+ deaths by Gov or formally organized group

Unintentional vs indirect deaths

Unintentional: civilians killed from cross fire accidentally

Indirect: civilians indirectly killed from conflict like famine or disease

Rebel capacity affect on deaths

Rebel groups that need civilian cooperation→ less likely to kill civilians by offering them concessions like protection/get support; weak groups may kill

Also groups with foreign support don’t need civilians so may kill them with less restraint

Protest types

PPE (loan)

Peaceful, physical suppression (without lethal injury), excessive force (lethal and targeted violence)