state failure geopolitics (Goldstone)

characteristics of STABLE states (goldstone)

if they have BOTH:

effectiveness - how well the state carries out its state functions (es. security, economic growth, ecc…)

legitimacy- be inclusive and work with the law, respect of the government from the population (its popularity among the population) / CREDIBILITY THAT THE GOV. IS FUNCTIONING

characteristics of failed states

states which both lack of effectiveness and legitimacy will collapse / soon collapse

N. of pathways to failure ?

5

5 pathways to state failure?

1. ethnic/ religious conflicts

2. state predation (corruption)

3. regional rebellion

4. democratic collapse

5. crisis in authoritarian states

all have several submodes

ALL LEAD TO LOSS OF LEGITIMACY/ EFFECTIVENESS OR BOTH

communal group (ethnic/ religious) conflicts+ example

1. gov. becomes ineffective at managing security/ economy => rebellion from ethnic groups

2. gov. exclude/ damage a minority and support only few ones => rebellion

es. failed reforms in Nepal in 1990

made a multiparty parliament and king, however party leaders were corrupted and NO land reforms => NO POPULAR SUPPORT

=> some leaders in the parliament made a rebellion in rural areas against them => they ended up controlling 70% of the country side / civil war / 10.000 people died

2006=> agreement but situation is still not currenctly resolved.

state predation (corruption) + example

when a regime is seemed corrupted by elite institution (es. church/ business community) => rebellion, assaulting the state

es. Nicaragua younger king in 70s-80s.

the dictator family was first supported, then the youngest came to power and used his position only to enrich himself.

(took in his pocket money meant to go to aid for recovering capital from earth quake / murdered member of business elite)=> church and business community didn’t like him anymore => WAR => other family (which was supported by pop. took power.

regional rebellion explanation + example

regional / economic class rebellion ( NOT ethnic / religious group)

the guerrillas seem better to provide security

es. FARC(armed communist rebel group) in Colombia

low class rebellion=> then supported by the FARC, who gained certain regions. They took as well the Cali and Medellin Cocaine groups, had the rosources to provide key sources (es. security) than the government.

gov. was unable to stop them => loss of legitimacy

democratic collapse explanation + example

when democracy loose effectiveness=> military regimes take place=> usually lead to corruption

es. Nigeria 1983

gov. soon had debts due to worsen of oil market => corruption rose=> military took place with justification of what had previously had happened.

problem of succession / reform crisis in aurthoritarian states (explanation and example )

if legitimacy is associated to one ruler=> if that individual dies => loss of legitimacy and an open spot with power is left.

the one who takes power will be seen as illegitimate (loss of legitimacy)

if more take power => gov is weak => loss of effectiveness

es. Indonesia

a gov. failed to replace an illegitimate succession of Suharto, leading to army to take place in some regions.

UN, other election/ other political parties to restablish effectiveness/ legitimacy.

another mode:

using policies incorectly, gaining little of their benefits and having a lot of trade offs.

example of communal group conflict

nepal

example of state predation (corruption)

nicaragua successur

example of guerrilla/ regional rebellion

es. FARC in Colombia

example of succession crisis

Indonesia ( ruler died and left a spot open, UN had to intervene)

example of failled democracy

Nigeria