China midterm

High Qing

zenith of wealth and power under Manchurian Qings in mid 1700s (emperor Qianlong)

• importation of crops from New World —> no taxes necessary

• major corruption and inequality, poor public works. White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1804)

First Opium War

1840-42

trade surplus with GB, looking for a new market

China banned opium; GB retaliated and defeated China

• ended with Treaty of Nanking, China defeated and opened 5 ports, ceded 21M silver dollars along with Hong Kong

• no tariff ability, proselytization, extraterritoriality (inability to try foreign actors in China)

• humbled China and demonstrated their military inferiority

Opening chapter of Century of Humiliation

Zakaria: main factors of China’s economic success

• market-based approach

• high savings rate

• high productivity

Trying to avoid “middle-income trap”

Qing dynasty

1644-1911

• Manchus united and conquered China

• adopted confucianist customs for control

• closed economy (“Middle Kingdom”)

• peak land area of 13.1M sqkm in 1790 (fourth largest empire in the world)

• 30% of world’s GDP at peak in 1820 (driven by massive population and labour force w/ agrarian economy, sophisticated banking and credit system)

Problems at tail end of Qing dynasty

• Industrial revolution, French & US Revolutions

• Meiji Restoraiton (successfully transformed Japanese economy)

• Needham puzzle: why did China fail to take the next step after Qing ec. success?

• Mark Elvin: high-level equilibrium trap (abundance of labour > new tech), land farmed to limit (Malthusian dynamic)

• Joel Mokyr: state lost interest; aversion to changing status quo; lack of competition (state monopsony in marketplace of ideas, intellectual talent consumed by desire to maintain order)

Taiping Rebellion

1850-1864

cause: severe ec. hardship (gov’t only took in 10% of expenditures), natural disasters, famine, corruption

• Hong Xiuquan claims he was Christ’s brother, leads peasant rebellion

  • motivated by anti-Manchu sentiments, overpopulation and ec. disaster, promising sweeping egalitarian changes (such as equal rights for women and banning of opium)

• proto-communist, anti-Confucianist but realistically without much direction; “without any seeds for a renaissance” (Marx)

• over 2M soldiers at peak

• ended as British forces brought “Ever Victorious Army”

• led to local elites have private militias, 20-30M deaths, devastated ec. zones

Self-Strengthening Movement

1861-1894

Ti-Yong formula to save country, led by Qing (invested 3.5% of national income into program).

• military modernization w/ Western tech after 20M casualties from Taiping Rebellion

  • “Western learning for its own use, Chinese learning for its essence”

  • 30 advanced munition factories, 4 naval shipyards

  • important bc it had lost its three main tributary states from 1870-90s (Ryukyu islands, Vietnam, Korea)

• study abroad programs

• modernization > fundamentals

confucianism

• conservative governance

• hierarchy

• orthopraxy and correct practice

historically, major ethnic tensions from outside the Great Wall bc non-Han Chinese would invade

Sino-Japanese War

1894-1895

battling for supremacy over the Korean peninsula

• first national embarrassment

  • over 30,000 chinese casualties in battle

  • defeated by Japanese army 1/3 the size

• Treaty of Shimonoseki (1895) extracted significant concessions, including Taiwan

Three pathways for Qing responses to Sino-Japanese defeat

• NATIVISTS

  • Boxer Rebellion (killed approx. 30,000 converts and missionaries, supported by Ci Xi in quest for more self-determination)

  • Ci Xi stupidly declared war on eight Western nations; signed humiliating Boxer Protocol in 1901 to pay cost of war for foreign states

• SELECTIVE MODERNISTS (imperial attempt to strengthen state)

  • 100 Days Reform (1898): failed political and educational reforms that echo Western practices

    • 180 decrees established

      • abolishing civil service exams and sinecure posts, new ed. system

  • Kang Youwei (mentor of young Guangxu) and Emperor Guangxu arrested by Ci Xi

  • 1905: Ci Xi reverses course and abolishes exams (now no way to solidify official ideology)

• ICONOCLASTS

  • Sun Yat-Sen (1911 revolution)

1911 Revolution

• Wucheng uprising sparked larger military movement

• 15-18 provinces soon declared independence as entire dynasty collapsed (22 regional rebellions)

• Pu Yi abdicated, Sun Yat-Sen first president of Republic of China (1912)

• established chinese identity. NATIONALISM.

• revolution had been less viable over the years than Japan bc no split between emperor/state in China

• LEVENSON: a failure, but not a mistake (borrowed parliamentary democracy w/ separation of powers. still not conclusive and led to warlordism)

  • “partial revolution” because representative democracy failed and no clean break with the past was truly established

Yuan Shikai

one of the most popular military generals during 1911 revolution

• brief revival of monarchy, faced opposition, died

• a remnant of the first warlord era (Dingwu army to adopt Western-style organization, with German-led training)

• political deal at North-South Peace Conference committed president of new ROC to him if he engineered Qing abdication (which happened on 2/12/12)

• formed “constitutional compact” (basically a dictatorship) after assassinating contestant (Song Jiaoren)

• SPENCE: still major ec. development (centralized currency, opium suppression)

Japan attacks German concession areas in China from WW1

• 21 Demands ultimately rejected but major anti-Japan antipathy

• May Fourth Movement: youth intellectuals, Tiananmen march to demand ouster of pro-Japan ministers

Chiang Kai-Shek

Sun’s protege in KMT = significant military talent (previously at Whampoa Military Academy)

Northern Expedition

1926

campaign led by Chiang, KMT, NRA to unify China and destroy warlords (including CCP! after having collabed with them)

• in warlord era, six presidential elections, 25 different cabinets. outrageous taxation, forcing opium agriculture

established one-party Nanjing Government authoritarian rule soon after

Origin of KMT

founded by Sun in 1894.

• originally 3 core principles: nationalism, democracy, livelihood

• always preoccupied by getting support so hard to pinpoint content

• const’l government w/ 5 branches, civic unity, land reform

became majority under Yuan Shikai; Chiang took power in ‘25 while destroying warlordism in First United Front (CCP-KMT) which was soviet-brokered, although it failed due to a moral hazard problem

• shaped to exemplify “democratic centralism” (very polarized within party)

Rule of KMT

• became totalitarian party-state

  • capitalist, corrupt, inflation, warlordism remained the basis for power

  • deep poverty, inhumane work hours, weak unions

  • poorly constructed tax and tariff system (less industrial production than Belgium despite 500M vs. 8M population)

  • exogenous shocks (ex. Yangzi River flood of 1931, 3.7M deaths)

  • still, signifcant strides for infrastructure and economic growth

• Shanghai Massacre 4/12/1927: slaughtered 90% communists (KMT “white terror”), leading to the Nanjing decade (leaders educated abroad; commercialization)

New Life Movement

1934-35

• KMT imitating Western manners; appeasement after Japan conquered Manchuria in 1931

• fascist, consistent budget deficits, crackdown on literary left

  • focused primarily on CCP “bandits” rather than external threats

Yellow-River Flood (destruction of levees as scorched earth defensive tactic against Japanese) backfired and killed 30-87,000 Chinese from 1938-47

Xi’an Incident

1936

Generals Yang Hucheng Zhang Xueliang (son of Zhang Zuolin) kidnapped Chiang and forced him to fight against Japan w/ Second United Front

• (earlier in 1930s, Japan had invaded and begun to govern Manchuria, with Pu Yi as figurehead)

1937: Marco Polo Bridge Incident (skirmish near Beijing sparked full-out war between China-Japan)

1937-38: Nanjing Massacre: Japanese troops killed 100-300,000 Chinese and raped 20-80,000 women after having captured Nanjing (despite United Front). 20M deaths in war amid hyperinflation

Maoism vs. Marxist-Leninism

• ACTIVE vs. deterministic (leading country and skipping evolutionary progression of capitalism)

• NATIONALIST vs. internationalist

• PEASANT vs. proletariat revolution (very few urban workers to begin with)

• PERMANENT REVOLUTION vs. organizations

Second United Front

collaboration w/ CCP and int’l support for potential coalition to fend off Japanese threat

Origins of CCP

• founded by Chen Duxiu and Li Dazhao in 1921 following Bolshevik Revolution in 1917

• support from ComIntern

• purged by KMT during N. Expedition after having collaborated with them

• LIEBERTHAL: will & strategy > challenges

Civil War between KMT/CCP (‘45-’49)

Double Tenth Agreement (10/10/45): KMT/CCP acknowledge respective legitimacy and seek to avoid civil war. collapsed very soon

with lack of public support for KMT (hyperinflation, carpetbagging, alienation of agrarian majority, non-radical land reform unlike CCP) post-war, Civil War occurred

• KMT was exhausted after Sino-Japanese war, brutal conscription (14M troops) alienated citizens

• following Japan’s surrender, truce ended and scramble to occupy cities

• Chiang remote command, 48M refugees, hyperinflation (moms selling daughters for $4K yuan)

• CCP unexpected victory (USSR allowed them to take surrendered Japanese weapons after WW2 ended) and established communist regime

  • SCHOPPA: peasant support, class struggle, pragmatic and adaptable appraoch

• KMT retreats to Taiwan (no longer a Japanese colony) and takes all the gold. Richest party in the world.

Main challenges for CCP immediately following rise to power in 1949

• little experience governing urban China

• no professional bureaucracy; no civil servants (essentially just a military organization)

• poor science and tech and fiscal resources, especially with KMT brain (and gold) drain to Taiwan

hence Mass Line and other mass mobilization efforts

CCP pre-PRC

evolved unlike Marxist parties:

• RURAL, high labour mobilization

• adapting to countryside w/ land reform and peasant activity. this was possible due to weak state capacity

• 1930-34: Jiangxi period: allowed CCP and Mao to grow

  • land reform: antagonized too many people. frightened Chiang, exterminated CCP members, Long March.

Long March: yearlong military retreat to Yan’an (in Shaanxi province)

• Mao consolidation of rule, brainwashing

• 1935: Zunyi conference is when Mao established actual control over Red Army

• Mass Line: going out into the villages to hear grievances

• Soviet invasion of Manchuria at end of WW2 drove out Japan and established stronger arms and infrastructure partnership with Mao

Rule of CCP

• significant collectivizing land reform, seizure of private and foreign capital, agricultural production

• gender rights (marriage law in 1950)

• Anti-America, Aid Korea campaign (‘50-’53) - fought w/ NK (worried about US expanding to Chinese borders), major casualties. armistice publicized as huge victory for China

• appropriation of private properties from both entrepreneurs AND foreigners

Suppression of counterrevolutionaries campaign (‘50-’52) of people who were affiliated w/ KMT pre-1949 (they had significantly relied on KMT bureaucrats to govern PR, but as the size grew and they could get better workers, they purged previous KMT affiliates)

anti-corruption campaign (‘51-’52): Five Anti against private sector (bribery, tax evasion, theft of state property, theft of state secrets, shirking on gov contracts), Three Anti against party leaders (corruption, waste, bureaucratism

CCP land reform

1950-53

• no longer needed support of landowning elites, so “speak bitterness” campaign was in place to attack them and often assassinate them

• 300M peasants received land; collectivized ownership and agricultural resources

First Five-Year Plan

1953

• heavy industry, exploiting agriculture, support from USSR

Underlying tensions in the ‘50s: (SPENCE)

• the role of Mao (growing irrelevance post-wars?)

• China-Soviet relations (not urbanized enough to simply copy the USSR model)

• Soviet aid (interests compounded for loans, significant debt amid weak economy)

  • intellectuals vs. peasants/workers (both have important voices to be heard)

• Taiwan-US missile deal (Matador)

not super successful given still heavily rural population

• 1% rise in grain production; 3.8% rise in agricultural production

• as a result, push for mass mobilization and decentralized ec. decision-making

Hundred Flowers’ Campaign

• “thought reform” and “reeducation” to win over political opponents during mid-’50s were ultimately unsuccessful especially amid such a poor economy

  • ‘50-’51: tens of thousands of intellectuals reeducated at revolutionary colleges

• leading writers persecuted; things got bad after Stalin’s death and Hungarian uprising

• 100 Flowers Campaign (led by Lu Dingyi) opened door to constructive dissent

  • Hu Feng: Marxism can stifle real feelings of creativity and art

  • Backlash led to Antirightist campaign

Antirightist campaign

1957-1959 following Hundred Flowers’ Campaign. solidified status as a one-party state

• Mao claimed critics were “poisonous weeds” rather than “fragrant flowers”; spurred by Khrushchev speech in 1956 and Hungarian Revolution of 1956

• Campaign led by Deng; 552,877 people designed as rightists (up to 2M?)

  • public humilitation, labour camps, forced reeducation

Professors speak out

1957

• amid severe repression, CCP maintained estimate of 5% population were counterrevolutionaries (“gross manifestation of subjectivism”)

• party prestige starting to fail; the current iteration of communism is a fake version of true social democracy

• similar to Wild Lilies essay (Wang Shiwei) critical of CCP inequalities fifteen years prior (‘42)

antirightist campaign began shortly after

• dictator’s dilemma? never aware of true thoughts

Great Leap Forward - socially

1958-61

took advantage of silenced groups post-antirightist campaign

• soviet-style economy no longer apt, trying to avoid Khrushchev

• penchant for mass mobilization (belief in VOLUNTARISM); misguided belief that labour > heavy industry

• policies extended after Lu Shen Conference (7/59), when open confrontation between Peng Dehuai and Mao following private letter critiquing “petty-bourgeois fascism”; Dehuai replaced w/ Lin Biao who militarized Chinese society; successful nuclear detonation in Oct ‘64

• Sen: would’ve never happened in a democracy (no public opposition)

Three Bitter Years: severe malnutrition and attitudinal changes (18% pop loss in Fengyang Co)

Great Leap Forward - economically

• mass mobilization in industry and agriculture - very naive (melting cookware, overinflation of ec. growth)

• moral > economic incentives. no meritocratic incentive structure in place

• “both red and expert” —> disregard for expertise, weakening central bureaucracy while maintaining poor horizontal communication

• merging rural villages

• summer 1958: immense land reform (99% peasant pop. organized into communes)

still brought fundamental change:

• pooling of hosuehold, child-rasising, cooking arrangements

• brought legit prosperity to previously infertile regions (goal was nuclear weapon)

• enormous people’s militia of 220M people

• no social media therefore didn’t realize it was a national problem

Great Leap Forward - early 60s

• famine led to approx. 30M deaths, naatural disasters

• agricultural exports flow to USSR as debt

• US involvement in anticommunist militias in Laos and Tibet, threats of war with India

• Chen Yun inspection of countryside, 6/61, turned up horrific findings (factual). ordinary rural life ignored by corrupt bureaucracy

  • felt that society should somewhat deindustrialize

  • Socialist Education Movement (‘63-’65) to purge “reactionary elements” and intra-party bureaucracy

  • reducing trade expenditures significantly post-GLF: import of industrial machinery (from Soviets) led to oil up 10x since 1957; smaller communes on open market; ‘62 $1B yuan surplus

• Liu Shaoqi at Seven Thousand Cadres Conference (1962): 30% famine is natural disasters, 70% is manmade errors (Mao’s low point)

Great Proletariat Cultural Revolution

GL policies applied to literature and arts, destroying traditional chinese culture and confucianism

• mass mobilization against bureaucracy

• radical education, healthcare, income distribution alongside insular foreign policy

1965 Yao Wenyuan publishes attack on Wu Han play (“antisocial poisonous weeds”)

• Mao closes schools, Red Guard fanaticism (schools, homes, intellectuals beaten) to destroy 4 Olds (culture, customs, habits, ideas)

  • Red Guard takes over diplomacy after Wuhan Incident (1967); protests, hunger strikes, labour stoppages, thosuands of deaths. Essentially the voluntarist revolution he searched for!!

  • May 7 cadre schools for intellectuals

• seizures of political power: obviously factional warfare; “sent-down” youth to countryside, separated from family

Sino-Soviet split

• USSR refused to aid China with nuclear weapons

• aftermath of Khruschev (Mao rejected idea of peaceful coexxistence with West)

• both vying for dominance over communism

Into the 1970s

• Nixon visits China in 1972 (Kissinger) and signs Shanghai communique formalizing relations between the two countries

• Sep 76: Mao dies, Gang of Four (Jiang Qing, Zhang Chunqiao, Yao Wenyuan, Wang Hongwen) arrested

Deng Xiaoping

• lots of foreign experince (France, Moscow)

• much less nationalistic and nativist, rise, fall, rise, fall rise as “capitalist roader” aligned with Liu Shaoqi; rose again to architect China’s reforms

  • led antirightist campaign

• Four Cardinal Principles to uphold despite opening up

  • attacked Lin Biao and Gang of Four rather than Mao to prevent Khrushchev effect

  • Descent from Yellow Mountain to gain trust

    • expertise > redness; less strict hierarchy within bureaucracy

    • Two and a Half core: Deng and Chen Yun basically equal, Li Xiannian a half-step behind

• VOGEL: initial challenges of leadership: inherited a structure he hadn’t built, official titles still held by Hua Guofeng, resistance from rural and military

Reform policies

• higher educational requirements, debates over policy, high economic growth

• less defence-oriented, more private property (with direct ec. incentives like bonuses, farm, procurement), heavy FDI, high global integration

• still, sharp inequality and social corruption among entrepreneurs

• Chen Yun eventually supplemented free market with panned state economy

• styles of Deng’s reforms: GRADUALISM, PRAGMATISM (ends justify means), EC>POL, PARTICULARISTIC CONTRASTING (“let’s get some rich first”)

  • loosening ideological straitjacket (Democracy Wall)

  • reinstated entrance exam system

  • Special Economic Zones to attract expats

Hua Guofeng

Mao’s successor following Lin Biao’s crash

• “With you in charge, I am at ease” (Two Whatevers)

1978: Third Plenum of 11th Party Congress - official start of opening up, big news for FDI

• Decentralization and delegation to local officials