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Hardliners
believe the adversary is a rational opportunist who will expoit any conciliation but back down when confronted
Accommodationists
believe the adversary is a paranoid victim who will reciprocate conciliation but back down when confronted
Globalization
Parity thesis says equality….
equals caution, which is what keeps the general peace
Preponderance thesis says equality….
leads to chaos b/c there is no leader
Polarity
describes how military, economic, and political power is distributed among states in the international system. Defines the number of dominant centers of power(or “poles”) on the world stage.
International public goods
security, peace, prosperity
Polarity: Multipolar
When the system has many states/central actors of power
Power is defined by…
material capabilities: military, economic, demographic
Under the parity thesis, inequality…
can lead to oppression
Under the Preponderance thesis inequality…
equals hierachy, which leads to order
Hegemony supplies the 3 C’s of global economy
Commerce (large market), capital, & currency
Elements of power
persuasion(related to diplomacy/soft-power), reward, punishment(sanctions), and force/threat of force
When states are bargaining in a crisis…
all leaders have an incentive to bluff
Aqueis
A state gives up without a fight
Capitulate
The state fights back at first, but once war gets too costly it gives up
2 principle public goods
prosperity & peace
Leaders w/ large winning coalitions(aka democracies)…
need to provide public goods to stay in power
causality aversion
avoiding the attempt to explain global events through simple "cause-and-effect" rules
In a war, flat terrain offers…
an offensive advantage & an advantage to Blitzkreig strategy
In a war, rough terrain offers…
defense advantage & advantage to insurgency
What defines a war?
sustained conflict between regular armed forces of 2 or more internationally recognized states in which there are more than 1k battefield losses
The idea of ‘Capitalist Peace’
Those in capitalist countries are less likely to go to war b/c the investors would be hurt by the costs
Countries less integrated in the global economy are less likely to go to war b/c…
being tied to the global economy means you face pressure from other countries on policies, trade, sanctions, etc that they don’t like
Sanctions
deny investment and trade for a specific country
Sanctions rarely work against autocratic regimes b/c…
Only democratic leaders need to provide public goods to remain in power
Sanctions lead to a decrease in prosperity which means…
leader providing no public goods & the people have an incentive to replace the leader (provided gov is democratic)
Chokepoints
Certain areas most likely to lead to conflict & areas that can easily cut off freedom of trade (Strait of Hormun)
Self-determination
the desire of a nation to self govern rather than being ruled by a central state government
Nation
a group of people who share common culture, history, language, or identity and a desire for self-governance
State
a sovereign political entity w/ a defined territory, a permanent population, its own government and international recognition.
Münck Analogy
failure to stop aggression ANYWHERE may lead to aggression EVERYWHERE. the consequence of that is that it will dishearten allies and embolden adversaries.