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Research question vs hypothesis vs prediction
Research question: a broad question about the world, motivated by a real problem (e.g. does reading Lord of the Rings make Miles more like Gandalf?). Hypothesis: a construct-level claim grounded in theory that can be tested many ways (e.g. reading about a fictional character increases identification with that character). Prediction: the specific expected result on the measure you chose (e.g. faster RTs for congruent than incongruent IAT pairings). Order: question → hypothesis → operationalisation → prediction. Keeping them distinct protects against HARKing (hypothesising after results are known).
Operationalisation
Turning a concept into something measurable, i.e. choosing the tool that turns it into a number. One hypothesis can be operationalised many ways (IAT, questionnaire, fMRI, observation). E.g. using the IAT to measure Miles's identification with wizards. It is the key lever for limiting concept overreach.
Dependent vs independent variables
Independent variable (IV): the thing the researcher changes or manipulates (e.g. IAT congruency, which book was read). Dependent variable (DV): the thing that is measured or counted (e.g. reaction time).
Manipulation vs correlation designs
Manipulation: the researcher changes an IV and measures the effect on a DV, which allows a cause-and-effect inference. Correlation: two measured variables are compared to see whether they move together. You can't infer causation from correlation, although a causal link could still exist.
Within vs between vs mixed designs
Within-subjects (repeated measures): the same participants do every condition. It has more power and needs fewer participants, but risks order effects and demand characteristics. Between-subjects (independent groups): each participant does only one condition. It has more noise and needs more participants. Mixed: at least one within IV and one between IV (e.g. congruency within, book read between).
One-way vs factorial designs
One-way: one IV, which can have 2 or more levels (e.g. congruent vs incongruent, analysed with a t-test). Factorial: 2 or more IVs, named by the number of levels of each (2×2, 2×3, etc.). It shows how the IVs interact, which makes it very powerful. Levels are also called conditions.
Quasi-experimental designs
Designs where at least one IV cannot be randomly allocated because it is a fixed participant characteristic (e.g. sex at birth, young vs old). Weakness: the groups may differ in other ways (e.g. love of Lord of the Rings), which creates alternative explanations. E.g. the odour study was a 2×7 quasi-between design.
Control conditions
A baseline condition for comparison, so an effect can be attributed to the manipulation (e.g. Juliet reading Pride and Prejudice instead of Lord of the Rings). The choice of control decides what effect you are testing: a Harry Potter control would test whether Gandalf specifically matters. The odour study failed because it didn't compare against its blank-pad control.
Extraneous variables vs confounds
Extraneous variable: any variable other than the IV that could affect the DV (background noise, distraction). It is acceptable if spread equally across conditions, but it adds noise. Confound: an extraneous variable that varies systematically with the IV, so you can't tell which one caused the effect (e.g. a wizard hat left only in the LOTR condition, or one condition run during a heatwave). Confounds destroy internal validity.
Sampling bias
When the way participants are recruited makes a sample, or one condition, systematically different. E.g. recruiting the LOTR condition outside Comic-Con means those participants already love wizardry, which makes it a confound. Sampling bias also limits generalisation (e.g. results from free divers applied to the general public).
Sample characteristics
Descriptive information about participants (age, sex, gender, other relevant traits). It is collected to check that conditions are broadly similar and to describe who the results apply to.
Attention checks
Items within an experiment that check participants are actually paying attention to the task. They matter especially online, where people get bored, watch Netflix or make tea.
Manipulation checks
Checks that participants actually experienced the manipulation as intended. E.g. the odour study checked that sniffers could actually smell.
Counterbalancing
Varying the order of conditions across participants so order effects cancel out in within-subjects designs. E.g. half do congruent then incongruent IAT blocks, half do the reverse, and the results are averaged.
Randomisation
Randomising aspects of the experiment (e.g. trial or condition order) so extraneous variables are spread evenly and don't become confounds. You can't remove noise, but you can control it through randomisation.
Random allocation(assignment)
Randomly assigning participants to conditions in between-subjects designs, so groups are broadly similar (age, interests, love of wizardry). It is not possible in quasi-experimental designs.
Inferential overreach
Claiming more than the evidence supports when moving from evidence to claim (e.g. "reading Lord of the Rings turns Miles into a wizard", or "brain rot" headlines). There are 5 types: causation, concept, relevance, explanation and certainty. The goal is a bounded claim that stays close to the evidence.
Construct vs internal vs external validity
Construct: does the measure actually capture the concept? (Does the IAT measure wizardry?) It guards against concept overreach; the lever is operationalisation. Internal: does the IV actually cause the change in the DV, with no confounds? It guards against causation overreach; the lever is control and design. External: do the results generalise to other people, settings and times (including ecological validity)? It guards against relevance overreach; the levers are sampling and realistic measures.
Reliability
The consistency of a measure: it gives similar results over time (test-retest) and its items hang together (internal consistency, e.g. Cronbach's alpha). It relates to both concept and relevance overreach.
Convergence
When multiple studies using different methods or samples point in the same direction. No single study proves a hypothesis, so results must be integrated with existing research. It guards against certainty overreach ("standing on the shoulders of your peers").
Underdetermination
When the same outcome can be explained by more than one hypothesis. E.g. caffeine improving word recall could reflect memory, attention, perception, or just the comfort of a warm drink. It guards against explanation overreach: discuss alternative explanations.
Statistical evidence
Using statistical tests (e.g. t-tests, p-values) to judge whether a result is unlikely to be due to chance. Significance is not proof and still needs interpretation. E.g. the odour study had p < .00001 but compared the wrong conditions.