Week 2: Aging Population

Demography

the study of the size, structure, and distribution of human populations

* Spatial or temporal changes
* **Aging is a major contributor** to changes

Why are there more older people? - 2 main demographic reasons


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1. __**Increasing life expectancy**__
* the average number of years a person is **projected** to live; given no dramatic change in causes for death happens
* calculated based on the current trends
* **not** the average age at the time of death

* **Better medical treatment**
* lower case fatality rates
* **better public health, effective health promotion**
* (seatbelts, smoking)
* **Epidemiological transition**
* a more influential reason
* the replacement of infectious diseases by chronic degenerative diseases over time due to
* expanded public health
* change in health behaviour

Why are there more older people? - 2 main demographic reasons


2. \

Declining fertility rates

(more important factor for population aging)

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* Having a lot of children not a status/ economic advantage anymore
* socio-cultural changes
* women rights movements
* family planning techniques

Epidemiological transition

* the replacement of infectious diseases by chronic degenerative diseases over time due to
* expanded public health
* change in health behaviour

Challenges that developed nations also face

* healthcare and pension challenges

Canada’s population is one of the _____ in the world!

Oldest

* In fact, in 2016, people 65+ outnumbered children under 15 in Canada
* In 2018, 9% of the worlds population was 65+

2 trends account for the worldwide shift to an older population:

1. decline in birth rates
2. a decline in death rates

Total Fertility rate (TFR)

* the average number of children born to women in their lifetime in a population
* 2018 TFR = 2.4
* TFR is declining in most countries, and is expected to further decline

3 measures are used to measure population aging

1. The number of older people in a population
2. The median age of a population
3. The proportion of older people in a population

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Aging around the world

Developed regions

more developed countries comprise of Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and Japan

Less developed regions

Regions + countries that are developing socio-economically

* China, India, Brazil

Least developed regions

The 47 poorest economically countries that have weak human development indicators

* Haiti, Yemen, Niger

Aging in the least developed nations

* high fertility rates
* low life expectancy
* low % of old people

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* need to support large population of dependant children
* widespread poverty
* hardships due to rapid urbanization

Aging in the less developed nations

* These countries have developing economies
* need solutions that fit their cultures and current economic conditions
* developing economies pose challenges

Aging in the developed nations

* large proportions of older people (continuing to get older)
* challenges:
* higher pension costs
* need to rethink long-term care

By 2036, Canada will have between million and _ million older people

(__% of the total population)

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and the median age is _______

__**Twentieth century;**__

* fertility rate declined
* (Baby boom 1946-65)
* By 2036, Canada will have between 9.9 million and 10.9 million older people (24-26% of the total population)
* Increasing median age
* __**Median age:**__
* half the population is older and half is younger than the median age

3 conditions that affect a populations size + structure:

* Immigration
* Death rates
* birth rates

Demographic transition

* occurs when a population changes from a high birth rate/high death rate condition to a low birth rate/ low death rate condition
* Canada began its demographic transition around 1850 as the birth rate decreased

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4 stages:

Stage I

* high fertility
* high mortality
* small population
* slow and varied population growth
* high proportion of young people
* small proportion of older people

Stage II

* High fertility
* mortality begins to decline

Stage III

* Fertility declines
* mortality declines further
* population growth levels off at a larger size
* older population begins to grow

Stage IV

* Low fertility
* Low mortality
* low population growth
* large population of older people in the population

The third demographic force:

immigration

2 phenomena that affected birth rate in Canada

1. **Baby Boom**
* sharp rise in fertility
* reverse in trend of decreasing fertility
* 1946-1960

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1. **Baby Bust**
* sharp drop in fertility
* mid 1960 - present

Prospective aging

* allows demographers to compare populations with different life expectancies, and to compare one society at different points in time as life expectancies increases
* one measure of prospective aging uses number of years of remaining life expectancy as the start of old age

women outnumber men ____to ___

five to one

\*and older women outnumber older men

Old age security pension

* Canadas basic retirement income program, which supplements the income of nearly all the country’s older people

Guaranteed income supplement

An income supplement program for the poorest older people

Allowance

an income supplement program for spouses of pensioners who receive the old age security pension and have a combined income below a set amount

Indigenous seniors

* have relatively young populations and lower life expectancies
* (high fertility rates)
* small population of seniors
* Seniors increasingly live in urban areas
* elders play an important role in preserving community heritage

*___-_____* of seniors in Canada in 2016 had immigrated to Canada from other countries

* most older people in Canada speak english or french

Residential Mobility

* Canadian seniors “age in place”
* often own their homes and prefer to stay there as long as possible
* Disability stage requires the older person to move to nursing home or other long term care institution

Apocalyptic demography

* The use of demographic facts to project the high cost of an aging population and predict that population aging will lead to economic and social crisis
* some call this view ‘alarmist’ and say that it distorts the likely effects of population aging
* __**population aging = economic/ social crisis**__

How can we make it less apocalyptic

1. **improvement in health**
* a healthy aging population
2. **policy changes**
* increasing age of retirement
* different pension plans
* …. ‘your ideas in future’

Overall dependancy ratio

* the combined total number of people aged 19 and under and people 65+ divided by the number of people age 20-64

Dependancy ratios (Senior + Youth)

Senior:

* people 65+ / population age 20-64

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Youth:

* people 0-19 / population age 20-64

Crude dependancy rates

* based solely on the number of people in each age group
* does not address the economic burden of an older population
* ‘only shows part of the story’

Benefits of an older population

1. lower crime rate
2. healthier lifestyle
3. improving economy
4. keeper of traditions
* crucial for indigenous populations
5. unpaid (hidden) contributions
* helping family
* volunteering