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Safe Seat
An elected office predictably won by one party, making success highly likely.
Competitive Seat
An office where opposing parties have similar support, making the outcome uncertain.
Conditions for a Safe Seat
Strong partisan alignment, lack of strong challengers, and structural advantages like gerrymandering.
Conditions for a Competitive Seat
Evenly divided voter demographics, swing voters, open seats, or shifting national tides.
Incumbency and Safe Seats
Incumbents often create safe seats through name recognition, casework, and fundraising advantages.
Open Seat
An election with no incumbent running, significantly increasing the likelihood of a competitive race.
Madison's Concern About Factions
Madison was concerned that factions would tyrannize the minority or destabilize government through adverse passions or interests.
Extended Republic and Factions
A large republic dilutes factions by incorporating a greater variety of interests, making a majority faction harder to coordinate.
First Amendment
Protects freedoms of religion, expression, press, assembly, and petition.
Fourth Amendment
Protects against unreasonable searches and seizures, requiring warrants based on probable cause.
Sixteenth Amendment
Established Congress's right to impose a federal income tax.
Twenty-sixth Amendment
Lowered the voting age to 18.
Majority-Minority Population
A demographic population in which the majority consists of racial or ethnic minorities.
Pre-Election Poll
A survey conducted before an election to measure voter preferences and intended votes.
Exit Poll
A survey of voters taken immediately after they have exited polling places to ask about votes already cast.
Survey Respondent and Sample
A respondent is an individual participating in a survey; a sample is the subset of a population selected for it.
Comparing Pre-Election and Exit Polls
Pre-election polls measure intended votes before election day, while exit polls measure votes already cast.
Polling and Voter Demographics
Polling helps analysts examine voter choices and demographic patterns by revealing how different groups vote and why.
Political Party
An organization that seeks to gain power by running candidates in elections.
Linkage Institution
A structure connecting citizens to government, such as parties, media, and interest groups.
Realignment
A lasting shift in party allegiance and voting coalitions that alters the political landscape.
Divided Government
When one party controls the presidency and another controls one or both houses of Congress.
Polarization
The growing ideological gap between political parties, reducing moderate viewpoints.
Party Identification
A citizen's personal loyalty or psychological attachment to a specific political party.
Party Objectives
Parties seek to win elections, capture government control, and enact policy agendas.
Connecting Citizens to Government
Parties mobilize voters, raise funds, frame issues, and aggregate public preferences.
Lasting vs. Temporary Coalition Changes
Realignment is a permanent shift in voter loyalty; temporary changes are short-term fluctuations.
Divided Government Control Combinations
A president from one party facing a Congress controlled by the opposing party.
Impact of Ideological Distance
Wider distance reduces legislative compromise, increases negative campaigns, and sharpens voter choices.
Federal Election Commission (FEC)
Independent regulatory agency that administers and enforces federal campaign finance laws.
Disclosure
The requirement that candidates, parties, and political committees report who contributes money and how much.
Contribution
A direct gift of money or services given to a candidate's campaign, subject to strict legal limits.
Expenditure
Money spent by a campaign or independent group to advocate for or against a candidate.
Hard Money
Contributions made directly to federal candidates that are regulated and subject to limits by the FEC.
Soft Money
Regulated or unregulated funds raised by political parties for general party-building activities, largely banned by BCRA.
Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA)
2002 law (McCain-Feingold) that banned national party soft money and restricted issue ads before elections.
Issue Advocacy
Political advertising focused on policy issues without explicitly calling for the election or defeat of a candidate.
527 Organization
Tax-exempt group organized to raise money for political activities, often engaging in voter mobilization and issue ads.
Coordination
Strategic communication or collaboration between a campaign and an outside spending group, which turns independent expenditures into contributions.
FEC Responsibilities
Administering campaign finance laws, disclosing contribution reports, and overseeing public funding of presidential elections.
Hard Money vs. Soft Money
Hard money goes directly to candidates with strict limits; soft money was used by parties for broad activities before BCRA bans.
BCRA and Election-Related Advertising
BCRA restricted corporations and unions from running broadcast ads naming federal candidates within 30 days of a primary or 60 days of a general election.
Express Advocacy vs. Issue Advocacy
Express advocacy explicitly calls to elect or defeat a candidate; issue advocacy focuses on policy issues without such a call.
Contributions vs. Independent Expenditures
Contributions are given directly to campaigns and subject to limits; independent expenditures are spent independently without campaign coordination.