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Given that there is a 50% baseline chance of innocence before looking at the DNA evidence, a DNA match makes the probability that Jane Doe is actually innocent extremely small (approximately \(0.00000101\)). This means it is almost certain she is guilty under these conditions.



What are the 6 formulas

draw the general tree diagram

what is sensitivity
true positive
what is specificity
true negative
Three rules for independence

Total outcomes #
multiple individual outcomes for each
ex: roll a die, flip a coin, roll a die = 6×2×6