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inflation
general, ongoing rise in the level of prices across the economy
hyperinflation
extreme case in which prices increase at astronomical rates
Zimbabwe 2008
example of hyperinflation
substitution bias
if you only calculate inflation using a fixed basket of goods you ignore the fact that people can buy cheaper goods as their purchasing power gets worse
quality/new goods bias
if you only calculate inflation using a fixed basket of goods you ignore that goods can get better in quality or new goods can be invented
overstate
An inflation rate calculated using a fixed basket of goods tends to ______ the true rise in the cost of living.
housing (42.4%)
highest rated category to create CPI
core inflation index
takes CPI and exudes volatile economic variables like energy and food prices
helps actually see price changes that affect cost of living without owing price changes to already volatile markets
why does the CII help?
government policy changes
what changes are made using the CII?
only ~0.5% per year
how much does the CPI overestimate inflation by?
updates basket of goods frequently; using different math methods to calculate CPI
how does the BLS compensate for biases in the basket of goods?
producer price index (PPI)
measures inflation based on how much producers pay to make goods and services
International price index
measures inflation based on exported and imported goods
employment cost index
measures inflation based on how much workers are paid
GDP deflator
measures inflation based on all GDP component prices (consumption, investment, gov’t, exports minus imports)
after WW1, after WW2, 1970s
when were the most notable waves of inflation in the US?
deflation
severe negative inflation, where most prices in the economy are falling
following the 1920-21 recession, the Great Depression (1930s)
notable periods of deflation in the US
hyperinflation
an outburst of high inflation
when economies shift from controlled to market oriented
when does hyperinflation often occur?
in the Confederate states, 1860-65
when did the US get close to hyperinflation?
prices, wages, interest rates
economic variables that should adjust with inflation (if they don’t we have problems)
unintended redistributions of purchasing power, blurred price signals, difficulties in long-term planning
problems if prices/wages/interest rates don’t rise with inflation (or if they have a time lag to adjust)
people holding cash, investors where the nominal return doesn’t adjust for inflation, when wages don’t adjust for inflation, retirees with a fixed private company defined pension
What kind of people are hurt by inflation?
borrower paying a fixed interest rate (their rate is worth comparatively less as the years go by)
What kind of people benefit from inflation?
when we perceive price more vaguely we can’t react as well to economic signals
what’s the problem with blurred price signals?
indexed
a price, wage, or interest rate is adjusted automatically for inflation
cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs)
contractual provision that wage increases to keep up with inflation
adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
type of loan borrower uses to purchase a home in which the interest rate varies with market interest rates
COLAs, ARMs
examples of indexing arrangements in private markets
US income tax code, adjusting levels of Social Security benefits, indexed bonds
examples of indexing arrangements in government programs
central bank
organization that ensures a country’s financial system operates smoothly as well as conducting monetary policy
Federal Reserve
central bank of the US
semi-decentralized
structure of the Federal Reserve, in which some employees are appointed by the government and others are representatives from private banks
7 members appointed by President and confirmed by Senate
who runs the Federal Reserve?
Jerome H. Powell
current chair of Federal Reserve Board
controls agenda and is Fed’s public voice
what is the power of the Chair of the Federal Reserve Board?
San Francisco, Dallas, KC, Minneapolis, Chicago, St. Louis, Cleveland, Atlanta, Richmond, New York, Philly, Boston
where are the 12 Federal Reserve banks (DC is the 13th)?
conducting monetary policy, promoting financial system stability, providing banking services to gov’t and commercial banks
3 functions of Federal Reserve
solvency
the degree to which someone’s (usually a business) assets are greater than their liabilities
maintain bank solvency and avoid excess risk
what is bank regulation meant to do?
minimum net worth to protect depositors and other creditors
what does regulation require of a bank?
percentage of their assets
how is the bank’s minimum net worth usually expressed?
Office of Controller of the Currency, National Credit Union Administration (NCUA), Federal Reserve
gov’t agencies that monitor bank’s balance sheets to make sure their net worth is positive and risk isn’t too high
bank run
when depositors race to the bank to withdraw their deposits for fear that they’d otherwise be lost
deposit insurance
insurance system that makes sure depositors don’t lose money even if the bank goes bankrupt
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)
who do banks pay a deposit insurance premium to?
lender of last resort
institution that provides short-term emergency loans in financial crisis conditions
conducting nation’s monetary policy
most important function of federal reserve
managing interest rates and credit conditions
what does monetary policy involve?
open market operations
the most common monetary policy tool in the US, when the central bank sells/buys Treasury bonds to influence quantity of money and interest rate levels
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
who makes the decisions regarding open market operations?
7 members of Fed Reserve’s Board of Governors and 5 voting members from regional Federal Reserve Banks
who comprises the FOMC?
reserve requirement
percentage of each bank’s deposits that it’s legally required to hold either as cash in their vault or on deposit with the central bank
greater = less money available to lend out and vice versa
what does a change in the reserve requirement mean for a bank?
discount rate
interest rate charged by central bank on loans it gives to other commercial banks