Multipolarity - R/L, evidence of increasing multipolarity

Realism

• Multipolarity = inherently unstable

• The more actors there are, the more opportunity for conflict

R — multiple power centres

• Also known as anarchical polarity

• Small increases in polarity can create a great power, which means more insecure, uncertain and security dilemma

R — Mearsheimer

• Fluidity of multipolarity (compared to uni/bi) creates uncertainty

• Encourages risk-taking to gain power, thus undermining potential for long-lasting balance of power

Liberalism

• Multipolarity promotes multilateralism :)

• This then → cooperation and integration (i.e. interdependent polarity)

L — cooperation

• States realise the futility of competition and conflict due to relative size (small) of potential gains

• Cooperation instead benefits all

L — 2 positive impacts of multipolarity

1. Encourages participation in IGOs which creates opportunities for cooperation

2. States are more evenly matched

L — one condition for multipolarity

• Security is dependent on whether leading players prefer to work through IGOs (🇺🇳) or alliances (G7/20)

3 optimistic views of multipolarity

1. 🇨🇳 can be encouraged to bandwagon with 🇺🇸 over responsbilities and they share them

2. 🇷🇺 has a v. small GDP

3. Better 🇷🇺-🇺🇸 relations post-CW

5 pessimistic views on multipolarity — 🇨🇳

1. Hegemonic powers rarely adjust to peace/decline in their status

2. Will seek politico-miltary power to reflect dominance

3. Clash of civilisations — communist dictatorship v liberal democracy

4. Existing divisions re Tibet, 🇹🇼 and HR

5. Resource rivalry

3 pessimistic views on multipolarity — 🇷🇺

1. Nuclear stockpiles

2. Soviet Bloc expansion

3. Dicatorship v liberal democracy

🇺🇸 current approach to rivals

• Keeping them in line with their self interest to prevent them wanting to rise

The world is more multipolar — 🇺🇸 declining hegemony (5)

1. Lots of racial and class divisions in 🇺🇸 under Trump

2. Global cultural influence and moral exclusivity undermined due to widespread HR coverage, admitted by Trump

3. Obama tactically decided to focus on Pacific, not Atlantic (relinquished 🇺🇸 ability to fight on 2 fronts)

4. Obama chose to not get involved in 🇸🇾 or Arab Springs (left a gap for 🇷🇺 and 🇹🇷 to fill)

5. News stations like Al-Jazeera and RT challenge 🇺🇸 dominance

The world is more multipolar — 🇨🇳 increasing in power (6)

1. 🇨🇳-founded AIB rivals WB

2. 🇨🇳 brands becoming more globally recognisable

3. Nationalist unity (compared to fractured 🇺🇸 unity)

4. Lots of investment in military equipment for use in Pacific

5. Working w/🇷🇺 to challenge USA — 2023 agreed to extend their “strategic partnership”

6. More assertive re. 🇹🇼 and 9-dash-line

The world is more multipolar — 🇷🇺 increasing in power (4)

1. Nationalists are unified (compared to 🇺🇸 divisions)

2. Flexed its muscles by invading Crimea and 🇺🇦

3. 🇮🇳, 🇪🇬, 🇮🇷 and 🇿🇦 maintain good relations with 🇷🇺 (not 🇺🇸!)

4. Working w/🇨🇳 to challenge USA — 2023 agreed to extend their “strategic partnership”

The world is more multipolar — technology (3)

1. Technological advancements means almost everyone is militarily equal

2. Increase in cybertech means nuclear weapons less important

3. Cybertech could allow a weak state to paralyse a strong one

The world is more multipolar — non-state actors (2)

1. Power more evenly distributed between states and non-state actors

2. Emerging powers — BRICS, 🇪🇺 — challenging economic hegemony