Chapter 1 - Thinking Bias

scientific theory, biases, pseudoscience, critical thinking principles

naieve realism

belief that the way we see the world is precisely as it actually is

scientific theory

explanation for a large number of findings in the natural world

belief perserverance

when we stick to our initial beliefs even when evidence contradicts them 

hindsight

“i knew it all along” after the fact we tend to think we would have predicted it all along

confirmation bias

when we only seek evidence that supports our hypothesis and neglect/distort contradicting evidence

pseudoscience

claims that seem scientific but aren’t, lacks safeguards against confirmation bias and belief perserverance

lack of self correction when prediction are vauge and unfalsifiable

ad hoc immunizing hypothesis

no predictions that disconfirm , an escape hatch to protect against falsification

overreliance on anecdotes

can’t tell us about cause and effect and often very difficult to verify

apophenia 

over-detecting patterns and connections among unrelated or random phenomena, sometimes we find a “signal” or pattern when one dosen’t exsit

• ex. seeing a man in the moon

falsifiability

theory generates hypothesis that could be disproved (risky)

• NOT all possible outcomes confirm theory

(pt) barnum effect

tendency to accept certain info as true even when it is so vague as to be worthless

bandwagon/appeal to majority

“most people believe…”

ad hominem/against the man

people from some identities have greater authority

false dichtomy/either-or

conclusion is only 1 of 2 options, since 1 is incorrect, the other wins by default

circular reasoning

basing a claim on the same premise worded differently (premises need evidence)

not me

believing we are immune from fallacies, findings, and biases that affect others

ozcam’s razor

the simplier theory is usually better

replicibility

can the results be replicated in other studies?

peer review

ananymous experts determine acceptability for publication

generalizibility

results obtained from a convivence sample also externally valid in other population

basic research

research examining how the mind works

applied research 

research examining how we can use basic research to solve real world problems