U.S. Congress: Electoral Strategies, Incumbency, and Redistricting

Mayhew's Central Assumption

Members of Congress are single-minded seekers of reelection. Reelection is a proximate goal that must be achieved before any other political or policy goals can be pursued.

Advertising

Any effort by a member of Congress to disseminate their name among constituents to build a favorable brand name, containing little or no issue content (e.g., holiday cards, parades).

Credit Claiming

Acting to generate the belief among constituents that a member is personally responsible for causing the government to do something desirable (e.g., pork-barrel projects, casework).

Position Taking

The public enunciation of a judgmental statement on a political topic to establish a candidate as a "speaker rather than a doer" to appeal to voters, donors, or party elites.

Out-of-Step Voting

When a legislator's roll-call voting record is significantly more ideologically extreme than their district's preference, leading to direct general election vote penalties and higher chances of defeat (Canes-Wrone et al. 2002).

Party Loyalty Costs

The distinct electoral penalty a member of Congress incurs when voting with national party leaders on controversial votes in direct conflict with district preferences, separate from baseline ideological extremity (Carson et al. 2010).

2SLS Model (Two-Stage Least Squares)

A statistical regression method used by Carson et al. (2010) to resolve endogeneity/simultaneity bias between a legislator's party-line voting behavior and district safety.

Strategic Politicians Model

Gary Jacobson's theory that aggregate electoral waves occur because experienced, high-quality candidates strategically choose when to enter races based on national economic and political tides.

Preemptive Spending

The practice of incumbents stockpiling campaign funds to deter strong opponents. Krasno & Green (1988) prove that early incumbent spending fails to scare off high-quality challengers.

Candidate Quality

A candidate's political experience, operationally measured in empirical literature by whether they have held prior elective office (Jacobson 1989; Krasno & Green 1988).

The Invisible Primary

The period before primary voting begins where party elites, donors, and interest groups network to endorse candidates, funnel resources, and select preferred nominees (Hassell).

Field Clearing

Strategic efforts by party networks to discourage, block, or deter primary challengers from running against a preferred candidate to avoid costly primary battles (Hassell).

House vs. Senate Field Clearing

Field clearing is easier in U.S. House primaries because candidates rely heavily on local party resources. Senate primaries are statewide, highly visible, and attract self-funders and Super PACs that bypass party control.

Democratic vs. Republican Party Networks

Democratic networks rely on centralized consensus-building across organized group leaders and labor unions; Republican networks operate through decentralized conservative donor, activist, and media networks.

The Moderate Dilemma (Thomsen 2018)

The dynamic where moderate candidates self-select out of running for Congress because they are turned off by intense polarization, gridlock, and donor networks that favor ideological fighters.

Direct Effects of Incumbency

The vote-share bonus an incumbent receives directly from holding office and utilizing official resources/perks, such as staff, taxpayer-funded travel, and franking privileges (Cox & Katz).

Indirect Effects of Incumbency

The electoral advantages stemming from the scare-off effect (deterring strong opponents) and the quality effect (defeating amateur candidates), which drove post-1960s growth in the incumbency advantage (Cox & Katz).

The Personal Vote

Non-partisan constituent loyalty built through candidate familiarity, localized casework, and personal relationships. Isolated by Ansolabehere, Snyder, and Stewart (A.S.S.) using "Old vs. New Voters" post-redistricting.

Carson, Engstrom, and Roberts (2007)

Study of late-19th-century House elections (1872-1900) proving that candidate quality and strategic deterrence operated long before modern office perks, franking, and casework staff existed.

Vanishing Marginals

The steep historical decline in the percentage of competitive/swing congressional seats (winning with under 60% of the vote) beginning in the 1960s, leading to record-high incumbent reelection rates.

Gerrymandering vs. Malapportionment

Gerrymandering is drawing district boundaries to favor a specific political party; malapportionment is drawing seats with unequal population sizes. *Baker v. Carr* established "one person, one vote" to end malapportionment.