midterm review (sent by Rachel's friend)

Berinsky

polls can effectively serve democracy but must consider who they survey and what questions they ask to accurately measure public opinion

converse 1964

- the mass public lacks constraint in the belief systems

- the public is largely ideologically innocent and struggles with abstract political issues

- when people interact with politics, it largely is understood in group terms

- people, by and large, have unstable views - "non0attitudes"

- exceptions are party identification, social issues, and issue publics

deli carpini and keeper

political knowledge is unevenly distributed with some people knowing a lot about politics while others know very little. which affects how consistently people form political opinions and participate

dellman et al

effective survey questions are clear unbiased specific and designed around how respondents actually understand remember and answer questions

ellis and stimson

political beliefs shape public opinion by using ideological labels na d symbols that help citizens understand and organize political issues

hetherington 2001

political trust affects how citizens evaluate government and respond to political information with declining trust making people more skeptical of government institutions

hillygus

survey quality depends on methodological transparency since no survey is perfect and readers need detailed information about sampling questions response rate and data collections to judge how trust worthy the results are

lay et al

children can develop political attitudes and partisan identities from their parents and social environments even at a young age

mason 2018 ch. 1 and 5

American political parties have created mega identities that absorbs individual group differences (us versus them)

McClain et al

racial identity has multiple dimensions: group membership, personal identification, and group consciousness - that can shape how people think about politics

verba 1996

hi lights the tension between citizens and elites; demonstrates that there is a participation gap between groups which directly impacts political outcomes

define public opinion

collective sum of individuals' preferences on any issue or set of issues related to politics

5 classical or folk theory of democracy and public opinion

1. citizens form opinions about political issues

2, citizens share those opinions with others

3. consensus is built through political discussion

4. politicians respond to public opinion

5. the electorate votes out the politicians who are not acting in accordance with the public's wishes

individuals' political opinions are often:

- logically inconsistent

- random or unstable meaning expressed opinions might not match their actual held opinions

- uninformed and therefore easily swayed

define opinion when it comes to politics

feelings judgements and preferences that represent how one interprets sociopolitical phenomena

what is an attitude

psychological tendency to evaluate a particular entity with some degree of favor or disfavor

8 dimensions of public opinion and describe them

1. direction: what "side" does your opinion favor

2. extremity: do opinions fall towards the end of the range of possible options or towards the middle

3. intensityL strength of feeling about the object of opinion; attitude strength

4. societal importance: how much is everyone else talking about the topic?

5. stability: is overall opinion changing? if so what direction?

6. information content: how much knowledge underlines the opinion

7. variation among groups ("cleavages"): are opinions across different groups similar or different?

8. ambivalence: opinion about an issue is characterized by conflicting underlying values

why is public opinion important

the pubic holds elites accountable by rewarding or punishing their responsiveness

what is responsiveness:

multidimensions transactional relationship where elites act on consituent interests through four components

1. policy

2. service

3. allocation

4. symbolic

what are the two potential models of government responsiveness

1. delegate model: elites try to understand what constituents want and tailor public policy to cater to those desires

2. trustee model: elites act relatively free of public opinion as long as their maintain the trust and confidence of their consitutents

what models does the folk theory of democracy resemble

the delegate model

what are the 5 necessities for effective democratic accountability (prerequisites for folk democratic theory)

1. a personality structure conducive to democratic cooperation

2. interest and participation in the democratic process

3. possession of information and knowledge

4. principles conducive to democracy: procedures and a common understanding/interest in the public good

5. accurate observations of political happenings

6. communication and discuss political matters with other citizens

7. some form(s) of rationality in decision making

elite driven model of democratic theory

a small wealthy and educated minority holds the actual political power and makes key decisions for society while the masses play only a limited indirect role

what does folk theory of democracy argue

elected officials give equal consideration to the preferences and needs of all citizens

2 ways voices are silent and 2 ways to correct this

1. lack of motivation: citizens who have low interest or low intensity of preference; voluntarily silent

2. lack of capability: citizens who have high need but lack the money, skills, or organizational resources to act; involuntarily silent

1. sample surveys: offer closest approximation to democratic political equality because they eliminate self selection bias

2. equalize individual opinions; bring (some of) the silence voices to the conversation

what is a belief system

a configuration of ideas in which elements are bound together by some form of constraint or functional interdependence

what are the structural components of a belief system

- idea elements: individual beliefs

- range: scope of the belief system

what are the two types of idea elements: individual beliefs

1. central beliefs: core to the belief system; often considered to be stable over time

2. peripheral beliefs: secondary beliefs derived from the core belief; more flexible over time

what are the two types of rang: scope of the belief system

wide range: links multiple issue domains together into a cohesive organization / structure

narrow range: covers a limited or highly specific issue domain

what is constraint and the two types of constraint

the cognitive glue or functional interdependence; it means that if a person holds one specific belief, it restricts or strongly predicts what their other beliefs will be

1. static: how well a person's opinions on different political issues correlate with one another at a specific point of tie; snapshot of the belief system

2. dynamic: how a person's opinions change and move together over time in response to new information, elite cues, or changing political contexts

3 ways that describe what causes constraints

logical: strict logic; if you hols position A it is a strict logical contradiction to hold position B

psychological: quasi-logical argument where ideas are bound together by a central unifying principle or world view

social: packaging of beliefs based on social groups or elite messaging

- hierarchical- based on social groups

- social diffusion- based on elites packaging information together for the mass public

4 possible answers as to why elites have more constrained belief systems:

- political sophistication / expertise

- different incentive structures

- different elite communication networks/ access to information

- self-selection into elite roles

five types of citizens (levels of conceptualization) and describe them

1. ideologues: rely on abstract but accurate conceptual dimensions of ideology to evaluate politics

2. near ideologues: mentioned liberal- conservative dimension but may not understand issues or place on dimension

3. group interest: use group benefit assessments over ideology

4. nature of the times: no understanding of ideological differences but use current events to assess parties / elites

5. no issue content: evaluation of politics lacks any policy significance no idea what parties stand for or assess candidates on person qualities

describe the belief stability scale

- scale is from 0-1

- higher scores indicate the same position across the observations

- low scores indicate a shift in position across the observations

what are non-attitudes

when a respondent is asked a question about a political or policy issue and rather than admitting they don't know or haven't thought about it, they choose an answer anyway

what is coin flip analogy

for a large portion of the mass public, answering a policy question is functionally equivalent to flipping a coin

what is an issue public and the three criteria criteria

a subset of the electorate that holds meaningful attitudes on a specific political issue

1. members of an issue public should care about the issue more than most others

2. the interest should be durable over time

3. their issue attitudes should be politically influential

what is issue public membership (Ryan Ehlinger 2023)

some people have a political issue that they care about more than most other issues

what is the best way to measure public opinion

opinion polls and surveys

what are the two basic choices we make when conducting a poll

- which people to interview

- what questions to ask

what do surveys measure

1. descriptive information

- demographic information

2. behavior

- identifies patterns in people's actions

3. opinions and attitudes

- opinions on relevant political topics

- attitudes that often explain opinions

four types of survey modes

1. in person interviews

2. telephone interviews

3. mail surveys

4. online surveys

advantages and disadvantages of in-person interviews

advantages:

- usually highest cooperation and lowest refusal rates

- allows for long, complex interviews

- higher response quality

disadvantages:

- very expensive

- takes longer to collect data

- interviewer presence can be disadvantageous (social desirability bias)

telephone interview advantages and disadvantages `

advantages:

- less expensive than personal interviews (but still expensive)

- allows for supervision of interviewers

- shorter data collection periods

disadvantages:

- people don't pick up the phone anymore (nonresponse bias)

- mode limits the questions that can be asked

mail surveys advantages and disadvantages

advantages:

- pretty cheap to run

- access to difficult to contact busy populations

- requires little human effort during the fielding process

disadvantages:

- difficult to obtain cooperation

- slow data collection

- poor response rates

online surveys advantages and disadvantages

advantages:

- often the lowest cost, can survey globally with (relative) ease

- fastest data collection

- complex survey designed can be used

disadvantages:

- technology constraints on the use side

- representative samples are difficult to obtain

- cell phones limit capabilities of the surveys

what is a sample frame

the list, database or source material from which a researcher draws a sample to study

probability sampling and 4 different methods

probability sampling involves random selection, allowing for strong statistical inferences about the whole group

1. simple randome sample

2. systematic sample

3. stratified sample

4. cluster sample

describe a simple random sample

every member of the population has an equal chance of being selected. your campaign Fram should include the whole population

describe systematic sample

- similar to simple random samples, but usually easier to conduct

- every member of the population is listed with a number, but instead of randomly generating numbers, individuals are chosen at regular intervals

describe stratified samples

divide the population into subgroups (strata) based on the relevant characteristics

- allows for more precise conclusions because it ensures every subgroup is properly represented in the group

describe cluster sample

dividing the population into subgroups but each subgroup is diverse and represents multiple demographics

instead of sampling individuals from each subgroup you randomly selected the entire subgroups

what is non-probability sampling and different methods

non-probability sampling involves non-random selection based on convenience or other criteria allowing for easier data collection

1. convenience sample

2 voluntary response sample

3. purposive sample

4. snowball sample

5. quote sample

describe convenience sample

a sample of people closest to the research- not representative of the population

describe voluntary response sample

based on ease of access- respondents volunteer to participate

always at least somewhat biased, as some people will inherently be more likely to volunteer than others

describe purposive sample

the researcher selects a sample that is most useful to the purpose of the research

describe snowball sample

recruit participants from other participants. this is helpful in hard to reach populations

describe quota sample

relies on the non-random selection of a predetermined number of proportions of units called quota

divides respondents into exclusive strata then sample from within to reach the quota

what are elite cues

messages or signals from political elites that help shape the public's opinions on political issues

describe hawks vs. doves

hawks: advocates for an aggressive foreign policy, strong military power, and entering or escalating conflicts

doves: seeks to resolve international disputes through diplomacy, negotiation, and avoiding military force

describe " top of the head" response (zaller)

when people don't have pre-existing attitudes on most political issues so when they are confronted with a survey question, they construct a response off the top of their head response

what is zaller's view of public opinion

- rejects the view that individuals have "true attitudes" (argues that attitudes only emerge in the presence of pollsters)

- mass opinion is largely shaped by exposure to elite cues, usually via the media

- elite rhetoric helps tell us which issues are important

- zaller has since said he game too much influence to elites

what is political knowledge

the range of factual information about politics stored in long-term memory

what should people know about politics? (the three categories of knowledge)

1. rules of the game: institutions and processes

2. people and players: who holds positions of power, who the candidates are, what parties they belong to, etc

3. substance of politics: policy issues, major political questions, prevailing social and economic conditions

what influences political knowledge

education

mass media

geography

demographics

what are the two big inferences

1. measurement inference: moving from the unobservable concept in someone's head to the actual box they check on a questionnaire

2. representational inference: moving from the 1,000 people who answered the online questionnaire to the millions of adults in the nation

describe the survey process

target populationL the group the survey is meant to generalize

sample frame: lists that identifies all elements of the largest population

samples cases; subset of the target population selected to participate

respondents: subset of the target population that actually participated

describe coverage error

the failure to give some individuals in a target population of a chance of being selected into the sample

describe sampling error

the difference between the survey statistic and the actual value that would be found if you measured the entire population

what is nonresponse error

errors introduced by the practical reality that surveys almost never collect data from all sampled cases

difference between unit nonresponse and item nonresponse

unit- failing to collect any data from the respondent

item- collects some data but the respondent might have skipped some questions so you have gaps in your collected data

what is measurement error

occurs when recorded responses to a survey fail to reflect the true characteristics of the respondent

what is post-survey error

mistakes or inaccuracies that happen after interviews and data collection finish, during the data processing, coding, editing, analysis, and reporting stages

describe the general flow of a survey structure

1. consent to participate I the survey

2. layup questions

3. substantive questions

4. sensitive questions

5. debrief on the purpose of the survey and a thank you

what should you provide in the consent

the purpose of the study

funding resources

risks associated with participation

survey authors' full names and contact information

estimated time to complete the survey

inform that by continuing the survey they are providing their consent to participate

describe layup questions

the start of the survey should include easy to answer questions that require little thought on the part of the respondent

describe substantive questions

these are the questions you are interested in (political knowledge, issue opinions, attitudes, etc)

types of survey questions

close ended questions: respondents choose from a list of pre written response options

open ended questions: respondents can type out their response as they see fit

types of response options

nominal: non-ordered categorical data that is counted with respect to the frequency of occurrence

ordinal: ordered categorical data that determines the extent to which one possesses a characteristic

interval: labels using ordered constant units of measurement that indicate the amount of a characteristic that one has

what is socialization

the process by which individuals learn about the world from general outlooks on life and understand their place in the social order

other words: the sum total of how one's experiences early in life shape how one sees the world and their place in it

two types of socialization

non political socialization- the learning of social patterns norms and values that are non political by nature

political socialization- the process of individuals developing identities and outlooks on the world that are specifically related to politics

what was lay et al. 2023 about

political socialization in early childhood

what is ideology

a belief system a set of ideas about the proper order of society and how it can be achieved

define core values, role of government, economic sphere, and social / cultural sphere in American liberalism

core value- equality of opportunity

role of government- active participation in society

economic sphere- the market requires a firm hand to regular corporations and prevent a conglomeration of power

social / cultural there- advocated for expansion of rights free from government intrusion and free expression

define core values, role of government, economic sphere, and social / cultural sphere in American conservatism

core value- individual, family, and community responsibility over federal government intervention maximizing market freedom

role of government- primary purpose is to protect individual liberty maintain the rule of law and provide a strong national defnese

economic sphere- believes in free markets: laissez-faire government regulation stifles innovation

social / cultural sphere-

- mainstream (post-reagan) strong government role in promoting traditional values maintain social orders / hierarchies and protect religion

- libertarian leaners: no regulation of the private behavior of consenting adults

what does ellis and Stimson argue

elite political actors usually have stable, aligned ideological views but individual citizens experience a deep disconnect between two types of mass ideology

1. symbolic ideology: how people label themselves

2. operational ideology: what people think the government should actually do web nit comes to public policy

what are ideological symbols

the labels and language people attach to their political identity

how is ideology measure

symbolic self placement- a single 7 point item measures the label a respondent claims

2. operational preferences- a battery of concrete policy questions summed into a scale. measures what respondents actually want government to do

what is partisanship

social identity that largely maps onto one's other identities and social affiliations

what is partisanship as a rational prespective

a running tally of retrospective evaluations of party performance

what is partisanship is psychological perspective

explains why partisanship is sticky even when issue positions shift

explain partisanship as social identity perspective

more like a team identity than a policy position

explain partisan sorting (levendusky 2009)

sorting is the alignment of an individual's ideology with their party identification so partisan and ideological identities increasingly overlap

what are the consequences of partisan sorting

people are less likely to have friends or surround themselves with people who don't align with the same party

what is a group

a social category people are sorted into based on a shared characteristic such as race gender religion class or age or party

what is group membership

being placed in a group by others based on widely shared definitions of who belongs

what does a membership item on a survey measure and what does it not capture

membership as the respondent reports

attachment to the group, shared values, or what the group means politically

what is group identity

knowing you belong to a group and feeling attached to it because you share its beliefs, feelings, and interests

- compares in and out groups with people favoring their own group

how to measure group identity

closeness- do you feel close to the general group or no closer to them than other people?

importance- how important is being in the group to your sense of who you are?

what is group consciousness

identity with the group and belief the group is disadvantaged and belief in collective action to fix it