AB

3.5 Economic Development and Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition Model

Stage ONE: Little to No Growth

  • CBR = CDR
  • Short life expectancy, high infant mortality
  • Disease, lack of health care, poor sanitation
  • US/Europe: before late 18th
  • Almost no countries now in Stage 1

Stage TWO: Rapid Growth

  • Death rates decline
  • Improved health care, access to water & food, vaccinations
  • Fertility rates remain high
  • Imbalance
  • US early 19th, India now

Stage THREE: Stable Growth

  • Economy/Education improves
  • Family income up, #births declines
  • More birth control availability
  • CBR lowers to = CDR again

Stage FOUR: Stable Growth

  • CBR < CDR
  • High affluence/economic development
  • More elderly
  • Govt may encourage immigration or $$ incentives to have more children

Stage FIVE: Declining Growth?

  • very low birth rate

  • low death rate

  • slow decrease of the total population

Affluence

  • More resources used per person
  • More wealth (higher GDP) can lead to environmental improvements and increased efficiency

Technology

  • ^^Destructive:^^ New toxic chemicals, increased resource extraction, manufactured “needs”
  • ^^Beneficial:^^ Green solutions that increase efficiency and lower impact (hybrid car)