3.5 Economic Development and Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition Model

Stage ONE: Little to No Growth

• CBR = CDR
• Short life expectancy, high infant mortality
• Disease, lack of health care, poor sanitation
• US/Europe: before late 18th
• Almost no countries now in Stage 1

Stage TWO: Rapid Growth

• Death rates decline
• Improved health care, access to water & food, vaccinations
• Fertility rates remain high
• Imbalance
• US early 19th, India now

Stage THREE: Stable Growth

• Economy/Education improves
• Family income up, #births declines
• More birth control availability
• CBR lowers to = CDR again

Stage FOUR: Stable Growth

• CBR < CDR
• High affluence/economic development
• More elderly
• Govt may encourage immigration or $$ incentives to have more children

Stage FIVE: Declining Growth?

• very low birth rate

• low death rate

• slow decrease of the total population

  

Affluence

• More resources used per person
• More wealth (higher GDP) can lead to environmental improvements and increased efficiency

Technology

• ^^Destructive:^^ New toxic chemicals, increased resource extraction, manufactured “needs”
• ^^Beneficial:^^ Green solutions that increase efficiency and lower impact (hybrid car)

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