Alan Lichtman 13 Keys to the White House

The 13 Keys 

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. In favor of Trump

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. In favor of Harris

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. In favor of Trump

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. In favor of Harris

5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. In favor of Harris

6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. In favor of Harris

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. In favor of Harris

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. In favor of Harris

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. In favor of Harris

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. In favor of Harris

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. In favor of Trump

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. In favor of Trump 

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. In favor of Harris

4 - Trump, 9 - Harris

this scale predicts Harris to win this election