The Best is Yet to be

Canada high-speed rail rebrand as network

¾ 2023: 50% via rail trains trips on time

Montreal -> toronto: 5 hours 8 mins (driving only 30 mins longer)

$300

Only G7 country without high speed

Others: 450 km/h

Commissioning studies

Windore -> Quebec City

Calgary -> Edmonton

6 - 40 billion

Promised high speed rail campaigns - no trains

Eg. Ontario - Kathleen Wynne

Alberta: Alison Redford

Alison Redford: Former Premier of Alberta who also pledged high-speed rail.

Michael Ignatieff and Stéphane Dion: Liberal leaders who included high-speed rail in their campaign promises.

Reasons for failure:

Via rail - owns 3% of train tracks; other owned by CN Rail

Density

Windsor-Quebec corridor (populated region) high-frequency rail investment - $6 to $12 billion

However will not reduce travel times significantly

Failed megaprojects

Bertha (cutterhead) - largest tunnel-boring machine stuck 120 ft below Seattle

Tim Burgess: President of the Seattle City Council, who stated, “There’s no turning back” regarding the project.

Mike McGinn: Former mayor of Seattle, who opposed the tunnel project in favor of cheaper alternatives.

Christine Gregoire: Washington State's Democratic Governor who supported the tunnel.

Bent Flyvbjerg: Management professor at the University of Oxford; megaprojects 8% of GDP.

Flyvbjerg's “Iron law of megaproject” - over budget, time etc

Sydney Opera - 14% overrun, derailed Jorn Utzon architect

Tarbela Dam - 7.5% inflation, 8 years longer

Inflation 380%

McGinn - develop light rail, campaigned against Bertha

2.1 Megaprojects as a globalisation strategy

Globalisation - megaprojects

Why? - cross-national relationships, enable complex constructions

Beijing - high tech, futuristic

Addressing challenges

Enhance market size

Creates competition - costly

Economic impacts

Land value, trade etc -> open market and attract investors (for developing countries)

Sweden = Denmark - Oresund Bridge - cultural integration, national borders

Malaysia Twin towers - symbolic national pride

Perceptions:

Immaterial benefits less favourable than tangible benefits

Has ability to hide real problems

Long develpoment - in process, negative can turn positives

When benefits dont meet expectations

Developments can change with time

Success Rates: Approximately 30% of megaprojects are completed on time and within budget.

Cost Overruns: cost increases of 20-50% beyond initial

Big Dig | Channel Tunnel | California High-Speed Rail

Big Dig: most expensive US highway (Boston)

Highway that rerouted Central Artery (I-93)

Over 15 billion

Cost overruns but improved traffic

Channel Tunnel (Eurotunnel - UK -> France )

31.4-mile underwater rail from Folkestone -> Coquelles near Calias (in 35 mins)

Cali HSR

Proposed high-speed rail - planned 800 miles

Expected in 2029

Reduce travel between San Fran - LA by 2.5 hours

Facing political + financial challenges, delays and cost increases

Sejong City | Hambantota | NEOM | Khazar Islands

Sejong:

2012: Major buildings

Relocate gov offices from Seoul - promote regional dev and alleviate congestion

Partially completed

Hambantota (south Sri Lanka)

Port project by China

Open: 2010

Low traffic volumes, concerns about debt

NEOM (Saudi Arabia)

Futuristic city in northwestern - Vision 2030

Expected start in 2025

Khazar Islands (Azerbaijan)

Artificial islands in the Caspian Sea

Doubts over feasibility

Three Gorges Dam | Hong Kong-Zhuhai Bridge | New Eurasia Land Bridge

Three Gorges (China)

Largest power station on Yangtze - 22.5k megawatts

Complete in 2012

Displaced 1.3 million people

HK ZH bridge

China: effective due to gov banking and visions - lack transparency and public views

New Eurasia landbridge (China)