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How fear drives American politics | David Rothkopf | TED Talks

Fear, the Cost, and the Age of Fear

  • Speaker introduction and stance on fear

    • Identifies with fear and anxiety; uses personal anecdote to establish credibility.
    • Background: a Jewish person from New Jersey who could worry early in life; signals a relatable, self-aware perspective.

  • Early fears in the nuclear era and constructive responses

    • Childhood fear of global thermonuclear war; coat-hanging protection drills symbolizing existential threat.
    • Despite fear, society produced constructive outcomes: the space program, the highway system, and the Internet.
    • Key idea: fear can trigger productive, positive transformation when channeled properly.

  • Post-9/11 response: drastic overreach and its toll

    • Event: September 11, 2001, when 19 attackers hijacked four airplanes.
    • The toll was horrific and not to be minimized; the response, however, was disproportionate—"verging on the unhinged."
    • Consequences of the response:
    • Reorganized the national security apparatus in the U.S. and many other governments, the most sweeping since the end of World War II.
    • Initiated two wars; expenditure in the trillions of dollars; suspension of values; use of torture; dehumanizing the notion that if 19 attackers could do it, anyone could.
    • Result: broad security paranoia where everyone became a potential threat.

  • Surveillance and erosion of privacy

    • Post-9/11 surveillance expanded to listening in on emails and phone calls of hundreds of millions, regardless of ally status or national interests.
    • Claim: 15 years later, there are more terrorists, more terrorist attacks, and more casualties, with the region from which attacks emanate more unstable than at any time since events like the Flood.

  • Diagnostic question: where did we go wrong?

    • Acknowledges Washington’s dysfunction (political fights, cage-match discourse) but argues larger, systemic problems exist beyond partisan bickering.
    • Central claim: a dysfunction that prevents progress in the world’s richest, most powerful country is more dangerous than ISIS.

  • Creativity crisis in government and think tanks

    • In Washington and many capitals, there is a creativity crisis: bold new ideas are attacked on Twitter and fail to gain confirmation in government jobs when proposed.
    • Problems arise from groupthink within small decision-making circles; external views are treated as threats.
    • Processes are reactive to news cycles; foresight and strategy functions are stunted because they chase the latest headlines.
    • Result: we fail to look ahead and misread crisis timelines; crisis after 9/11 occurred because the wrong direction was being watched, and today we remain looking in the wrong direction due to transformational trends on the horizon.

  • Transformational trends and their global implications

    • The very fabric of human society is being rewoven; a pivotal moment is approaching where most people will be connected via smartphones.
    • The Economist cover reference: by the year 2020, 80 ext{%} of the planet’s population would have a smartphone. In Africa, cell phone penetration reached 80 ext{%}; more SIM cards than people already existed by last October.
    • Implication: we are nearing a moment when virtually every human can touch others through a man-made system, with profound governance and life implications.

  • Security paradigm shift: from Cold War to Cool War and cyber warfare

    • Shift from nuclear-era restraint to a modern cyber environment where conflict costs are low and deterrence is unclear.
    • Doctrinal gaps: if attacked cybernetically, is a kinetic (physical) response legitimate or effective? How to deter cyber aggression?
    • Example: China’s cyber actions prompted indictments that are unlikely to result in custody or deterrence; treated more as gestures than real deterrence.

  • The new battlefield: information tools empower non-state actors

    • Insurgent groups with cell phones have access to satellite imagery and other powerful tools previously available only to superpowers.
    • Personal devices give attackers capabilities once unimaginable: a cafe siege in Sydney used an iPad to terrorize and broadcast via the Internet.
    • The weapon is increasingly information and connectivity, not just physical hardware.

  • Internet governance and cyber-politics

    • The unipolar/post-Cold War expectation that the Internet would connect the world is being challenged.
    • Great Firewall of China and similar policies show states asserting control over online content, security, and borders.
    • Emergence of cyber-nationalism vs. cyber-internationalism; nations building new Internet backbones to reduce dependence on external networks.
    • Result: a new, cyber-enabled bipolar world order with divergent governance models.

  • Economic and social transitions driven by mobile technology

    • Mobile money expansion appears in places like Kenya and Tanzania, enabling financial inclusion for millions.
    • Projections: 2.5\times 10^{6} people lacking financial services today may gain access soon, with roughly 10^{9} people able to access financial services via mobile by the near future.
    • Broader implications: shifts in monetary policy, the nature of money, and the delivery of education and healthcare; government services increasingly delivered through mobile platforms.

  • Policy discourse in Washington and the cyber-uncertainties ahead

    • Ongoing debates about naming extremist groups (ISIS/ISIL/Islamic State) and about nuclear negotiations with Iran that focus on older technologies rather than current cyber realities.
    • Businesses reluctant to publicly discuss cyber attacks, signaling a gap between private sector realities and public policy responses.

  • The public-private partnership and the science-and-government dialogue

    • Historical engine of progress in America: public-private synergy between science, technology, and government (Thomas Jefferson’s isolated laboratory; canals, railroads, telegraphs, radar, Internet; Tang).
    • The current culture in Washington cherishes less government and has declared a “war on science,” despite history showing science’s enduring wins against such wars.
    • The tech sector tends to value independence, often originating in garages and exhibiting libertarian/anarchic leanings; but global transformation demands renewed collaboration with government.

  • Philosophical and constitutional questions for the digital age

    • If Internet access is a fundamental right, should it be enshrined in constitutions? What about electricity access for the ~1.2\times 10^{9} people without power?
    • Invites philosophers and broader dialogue to address responsible governance, rights, and public policy in an interconnected world.

  • The central argument: rebuilding dialogue to meet transformation

    • The speaker’s purpose: to emphasize that the dialogue between scientists/technologists and government needs restoration.
    • Both sides depend on each other to navigate the coming transformations and avoid vulnerabilities.
    • The risks of 9/11-like distractions are not in the litany of dead or property damage alone; they are the costs of distraction from critical issues and the failure to mobilize cross-sector collaboration.

  • A Renaissance analogy and the role of platforms like TED

    • The transformative moment is likened to the beginnings of the Renaissance and other major eras of human reform.
    • Meetings like TED and global discussions are proposed as venues for formulating the right questions and shaping future foreign, economic, social, and philosophical policy.

  • Final takeaway

    • The future of policy (foreign, economic, social) and philosophy will emerge from cross-disciplinary collaboration and proactive discussion.
    • The speaker expresses gratitude and optimism about engaging groups like TED to drive the conversation forward.

  • Key numerical references (for quick review)

    • Attackers on 9/11: 19
    • Aircraft involved: 4
    • Core Al-Qaeda members: 100
    • Proliferation of smartphones by 2020: 80\% of the global population
    • Smartphone penetration in Africa cited as 80\%
    • Public-private transformative moments linked to science and government (historical examples): not numeric, but conceptually tied to decades of development
    • Mobile financial inclusion projections: 2.5\times 10^{6} people without access today; 10^{9} people expected to have access soon
    • Global electricity access reference: 1.2\times 10^{9} without electricity
    • Temporal marker: year 2020 as referenced for smartphone penetration

  • Summary reminder of overarching themes

    • Fear can drive both constructive progress and destructive overreach; the challenge is to channel fear into thoughtful, forward-looking policy.
    • Post-9/11 security responses illustrate the dangers of overreaction, surveillance overreach, and the erosion of civil values.
    • The global landscape is undergoing rapid, interconnected changes driven by mobile technology, cyber capabilities, and the privatization of innovation—requiring renewed dialogue between government and science/technology communities.
    • Philosophical and ethical questions about rights, governance, and the nature of money and information need broad, interdisciplinary discussion to guide policy.
    • Platforms like TED can be catalysts for the right kinds of questions and collaborations to navigate this transformational era.