Risk Assessment

Risk Assessment Overview

• Definition of Risk Assessment: The process used to determine the likelihood that an individual will commit future violent or criminal acts., encompassing both prediction and management components.
  • Prediction: Assesses the probability of future criminal behavior based on identified risk factors.
  • Management: Develops interventions aimed at reducing the likelihood of violence.

Historical Context of Risk Assessment

• Previous paradigms viewed risk as a dichotomy (dangerous vs. not dangerous); modern views regard risk as a continuum of probabilities.
• Key court cases highlighted the inadequacies of mental health professionals to predict future violence leading to the release of wrongfully confined individuals (Baxstrom v. Herald).
• Evolution of thought showcasing high error rates in predictions until the 1990s when empirical research began to inform risk assessment better.

Components of Risk Assessment

• Risk Factors: Factors influencing an individual's likelihood of reoffending, categorized as:
  • Historical (static): Past events such as previous criminal behavior.
  • Dispositional: Personal traits like age, gender, and psychopathic traits.
  • Clinical: Presence of mental health disorders and substance use issues.
  • Contextual: Situational factors, such as access to victims or social support systems.

Types of Errors in Risk Prediction

• There are four possible outcomes in predictions:
  • True Positive: Correct prediction of violent behavior.
  • True Negative: Correct prediction of non-violent behavior.
  • False Positive: Incorrect prediction leading to wrongful labeling as violent.
  • False Negative: Incorrect prediction resulting in failure to recognize potential for violence.
• The implications of false positives include wrongful denial of freedom, while false negatives can result in future harm to society.

Methods of Risk Assessment

1. Unstructured Clinical Judgment

• Decisions based on subjective impressions without standardized procedures or guidelines.
• High variability in risk factors considered leads to inconsistent outcomes.

2. Actuarial Prediction

• Uses predefined rules based on empirical data to determine risk levels.
• Focuses on static risk factors derived from statistical relationships.

3. Structured Professional Judgment (SPJ)

• Combines empirical data with professional discretion to evaluate risk factors.
• Encourages attention to both risk and protective factors, allowing for a more nuanced assessment.

Current Issues in Risk Assessment

• Subpopulation Research: Many risk assessment tools have not been adequately validated for specific groups (e.g., women, Indigenous populations).
• Cultural Bias: Risk assessment tools may be biased against certain populations, leading to erroneous assessments of risk.

Risk Prediction Tools

• Static-99: Measures sexual recidivism based on static risk factors.
• HCR-20: Implements structured professional judgment, assessing past, current, and future risk factors for violent behavior.

Protective Factors

• Factors that decrease the likelihood of violent acts, such as strong social supports, prosocial involvement, and stable employment.

Conclusion

• Risk assessments must be carefully constructed and validated to ensure reliability across diverse offender populations. Continuous research is needed to address gaps and enhance predictive accuracy and fairness in assessments of risk.