week 8 slides - thursday

The Democratic Peace and the Problem of Endogeneity

Introduction

The presentation by Professors Lockwood and Ross delves into the concept of the democratic peace theory, questioning the causal direction of democracy and war and introducing the problem of endogeneity. This involves understanding how perceptions of democracy affect international relations.

Is the Democratic Peace a Law?

• Causal Direction: Oren suggests that democratic peace theory may be misunderstood; rather than democracies being less likely to engage in war with each other, it posits that democracies label nations they won't fight as democratic. This self-classification influences international perceptions and actions.

• Historical Example: Woodrow Wilson's perception of imperial Germany illustrates this point. In the 1890s, Wilson viewed Germany as a democracy yet denounced it by 1917, as he advocated for a war to promote democracy worldwide.

  • Transformation in views: This shift shows how the same country can be interpreted differently based on changing political contexts and relationships, influencing U.S. foreign policy over time.

Revisiting Russett's Analysis

• Complex Relationships: There are indications from Russett’s work that the linkage between democracy and war is complex. It raises questions regarding how significantly "democracy" contributes to peace relative to other factors like cultural similarities.

• Perception vs. Reality: Historical perspectives should be reconciled with objective measures of democracy in statistical analyses, illustrating how public perception influenced decisions rather than actual democratic governance.

Endogeneity in Causal Relationships

• Definition of Endogeneity: Endogeneity emerges when explanatory variables are correlated with error terms in a regression model, leading to complications in identifying causal pathways.

  • Forms of Endogeneity:

    • Reverse Causation: When the effect can also influence the cause.

    • Simultaneity: Cause and effect influence each other.

• Examples: Cases like education and income, loan size and business growth illustrate how these relationships can obscure causal direction, complicating our understanding of how democracy influences conflict and vice versa.

Addressing Endogeneity in Research

• Temporal Lags: This method proposes using data from earlier periods for suspect variables to distill their influence on later outcomes.

  • Example: Assessing whether economic development in a given year affects women's empowerment in subsequent years.

• Statistical Techniques: Instruments such as instrumental variable analysis can provide alternative explanatory candidates that maintain integrity in correlational analysis.

• Wendt's Abductive Inference: This approach focuses on deriving explanations that consider the underlying causal mechanisms, asking what must exist for certain outcomes to occur, bridging nomothetic and scientific realism methodologies in international relations.

Conclusion

The democratic peace theory and the problem of endogeneity present significant challenges in understanding international dynamics. Insights from historical contexts and methodological advancements are essential for unraveling the complexities surrounding democracy and conflict.

The Democratic Peace and the Problem of Endogeneity

Introduction

The presentation by Professors Lockwood and Ross delves deeply into the intricacies of the democratic peace theory, which postulates that democracies are less likely to engage in war with one another. However, the discussion raises crucial questions regarding the causal direction between democracy and war while introducing the concept of endogeneity. This term refers to the issue of how perceptions of democracy can significantly impact international relations, shaping both policy decisions and public opinion.

Is the Democratic Peace a Law?

Causal Direction

Oren's analysis suggests that the democratic peace theory may be subject to misunderstanding and oversimplification. Instead of asserting that democracies inherently avoid conflict with each other, the theory posits that democracies often classify nations they are not inclined to fight as democratic. This self-classification plays a pivotal role in influencing international perceptions and diplomatic actions.

Historical Example

An illustrative historical case is President Woodrow Wilson's evolving perception of imperial Germany. In the 1890s, Wilson regarded Germany as a burgeoning democracy, but by 1917, his views had drastically shifted. He denounced Germany, advocating for U.S. involvement in World War I as a means to promote democracy on a global scale. This transformation underscores how political contexts and relationships can alter the interpretation of a country's regime, deeply influencing U.S. foreign policy over time.

Transformation in Views

This historical shift exemplifies how nations can be reclassified based on changing political climates and alliances, impacting international relations dynamically. Such transformations highlight the critical interplay between domestic politics and international diplomacy.

Revisiting Russett's Analysis

Complex Relationships

Professor Russett's work illuminates the complex and multifaceted relationships between democracy and war. It raises essential questions about the extent to which democratic governance contributes to peace compared to other factors, such as cultural affinities, economic ties, and geopolitical interests.

Perception vs. Reality

Moreover, it is essential to reconcile historical perspectives concerning democracy with objective measures employed in statistical analyses. This reconciliation illustrates that public perception may significantly influence political decisions—often more so than the actual state of democratic governance within a nation. The impact of media representation and historical narratives on international relations cannot be overstated, as they shape policy agendas and public support.

Endogeneity in Causal Relationships

Definition of Endogeneity

Endogeneity is defined as the phenomenon that arises when explanatory variables correlate with error terms in a regression model. This correlation complicates the identification of clear causal pathways due to the intertwined nature of the variables involved.

Forms of Endogeneity

Reverse Causation

One form of endogeneity is reverse causation, where the supposed effect can also influence the cause, creating a feedback loop that obscures true causal directions.

Simultaneity

Simultaneity is another form, in which cause and effect influence each other concurrently.

Examples

Common examples include the interdependencies between education and income levels, or the relationship between loan sizes and business growth. These examples demonstrate how complicated relationships can obscure our understanding of how democracy impacts conflict and vice versa.

Addressing Endogeneity in Research

Temporal Lags

To address endogeneity in research, one strategy is the use of temporal lags—an approach that utilizes data from earlier time periods to isolate the influence of suspect variables on later outcomes. For instance, assessing whether economic development in a specific year positively affects women’s empowerment in subsequent years.

Statistical Techniques

Additionally, statistical techniques such as instrumental variable analysis help provide alternative explanatory candidates that preserve the integrity of correlational analysis while accounting for potential biases in the data.

Wendt's Abductive Inference

Wendt's abductive inference approach further bridges nomothetic and scientific realism methodologies in international relations by focusing on deriving explanations that consider underlying causal mechanisms. This involves asking critical questions about the necessary conditions for certain outcomes to manifest, thus deepening the analysis of the relationships between democracy and conflict.

Conclusion

The complexities posed by the democratic peace theory and the problem of endogeneity present significant challenges to our understanding of international dynamics. Insights derived from historical contexts, coupled with advancements in methodological approaches, are paramount for unraveling the intricate interplay between democracy and conflict. Engaging with these themes is essential for both scholars and practitioners aiming to navigate the contemporary geopolitical landscape.