Population: Past, Present, and Futures

Population History

World Population Today

• Population of the world in 2014: 7.238 billion

• LDC = 82% of world’s total population

• Doubling time: the number of years it would take for the population to double if its current rate of growth were to remain unchanged

  → Used to determine how fast a population is growing

From Gradual to Explosive Growth

• Growth history

  • Beginning of humanity - 1750: slow population growth

  • 1750 - present: explosive increase in population growth

• 3 population surges

  1. Acquisition of clothing

  2. Sedentarization + development of agriculture

  3. Industrial Revolution

• Depopulation

  1. Plague

The Demographic Transition

• Demographic transition

  1. High rates of births and deaths

  2. High birth and declining death rates

  3. Low rates of fertility and mortality

The Demographic Transition in the Industrialized Countries

• Pre-decline rise in fertility = every case of demographic transition

  • Cause: modernization

    • Increase in living standard → increase in populations’ health → rise of natural fertility levels → contraception becomes widespread

Mechanisms of Transition: Westerns and Japanese Experiences

• Multiphasic response theory: assumes the widespread fertility declines in a society occur in a context of rising socioeconomic opportunities, coupled with sustained high rates of natural increase due to declining death rates (in infancy and childhood)

• Ireland

• Japan

Demographic Transition of Developing Countries

• Differences between demographic histories of the West and developing countries

• Sweden vs. Mexico

Transitional and Delayed Transition Societies

• Transitional populations: countries that have recently completed or are approaching the end of demographic transition

• Delayed transition populations: countries where the demographic transition has only recently begun

What Accounts for Delayed Development?

• Industrialization + technological innovation

• Geography + climate

• Colonization

• Unequal exchange relations between industrialized and developing countries

Mechanisms of Demographic Transition: Westerns and Non-Western Cases

• Decrease in fertility rates:

  • Innovation theorists: emphasize the role played by new contraceptive technologies and new ideas emphasizing small families

  • Adjustment theorists: new socioeconomic opportunities in a context of industrialization and urbanization made large families less desirable than before

  • The rapid spread of Western ideas and a change in the way parents and society think about children

  • Implementation of family planning programs

  • Improvements in education and literacy among women

Demographic Transition and World Population Growth

• Decline in death rates → world population explosion

World Population Futures

• Population growth rate: expected to continue declining steadily

• Post-transitional regime: low fertility, high life expectancy, low rates of natural increase, high levels of demographic aging

World Population Projections

• Population projection: computational exercise intended to determine a future population’s size and age-sex distribution

• 2050 = 9.6 billion

Population Momentum

• Population momentum: the amount of unavoidable growth that is built into the current age structure of the population

Some Demographic Certainties for the Future

• Population growth → developing countries

• Populations will become older

• Decline in proportion of children → more developed countries

Canadian Population History: An Overview

• Canada

Demographic Conditions in the Frontier Society

The Demographic Transition in Quebec and Canada

• New France

  • Marriage

  • High fertility

  • Low death rates

• Quiet Revolution

  • Fertility decline

The 19th Century Onward: From Rural to Urban Industrial Society

• Canada

Future Outlook

• Increase in senior population

• Decrease in young population

• *Immigration → population growth