Chapter 3: Canada's Population in a Global Context

Population: Past, Present, and Futures

Population History

^^World Population Today^^

• Population of the world in 2014: 7.238 billion

• LDC = 82% of world’s total population

• Doubling time: the number of years it would take for the population to double if its current rate of growth were to remain unchanged

  → Used to determine how fast a population is growing

From Gradual to Explosive Growth

• Growth history

  • Beginning of humanity - 1750: slow population growth
  • 1750 - present: explosive increase in population growth

• 3 population surges

  1. Acquisition of clothing
  2. Sedentarization + development of agriculture
  3. Industrial Revolution

• Depopulation

  1. Plague

The Demographic Transition

• Demographic transition

  1. High rates of births and deaths
  2. High birth and declining death rates
  3. Low rates of fertility and mortality

^^The Demographic Transition in the Industrialized Countries^^

• Pre-decline rise in fertility = every case of demographic transition
  • Cause: modernization
  • Increase in living standard → increase in populations’ health → rise of natural fertility levels → contraception becomes widespread

^^Mechanisms of Transition: Westerns and Japanese Experiences^^

• Multiphasic response theory: assumes the widespread fertility declines in a society occur in a context of rising socioeconomic opportunities, coupled with sustained high rates of natural increase due to declining death rates (in infancy and childhood)
• Ireland
• Japan

^^Demographic Transition of Developing Countries^^

• Differences between demographic histories of the West and developing countries
• Sweden vs. Mexico

^^Transitional and Delayed Transition Societies^^

• Transitional populations: countries that have recently completed or are approaching the end of demographic transition
• Delayed transition populations: countries where the demographic transition has only recently begun

^^What Accounts for Delayed Development?^^

• Industrialization + technological innovation
• Geography + climate
• Colonization
• Unequal exchange relations between industrialized and developing countries

^^Mechanisms of Demographic Transition: Westerns and Non-Western Cases^^

• Decrease in fertility rates:
  • Innovation theorists: emphasize the role played by new contraceptive technologies and new ideas emphasizing small families
  • Adjustment theorists: new socioeconomic opportunities in a context of industrialization and urbanization made large families less desirable than before
  • The rapid spread of Western ideas and a change in the way parents and society think about children
  • Implementation of family planning programs
  • Improvements in education and literacy among women

^^Demographic Transition and World Population Growth^^

• Decline in death rates → world population explosion

World Population Futures

• Population growth rate: expected to continue declining steadily
• Post-transitional regime: low fertility, high life expectancy, low rates of natural increase, high levels of demographic aging

^^World Population Projections^^

• Population projection: computational exercise intended to determine a future population’s size and age-sex distribution
• 2050 = 9.6 billion

^^Population Momentum^^

• Population momentum: the amount of unavoidable growth that is built into the current age structure of the population

^^Some Demographic Certainties for the Future^^

• Population growth → developing countries
• Populations will become older
• Decline in proportion of children → more developed countries

Canadian Population History: An Overview

• Canada

Demographic Conditions in the Frontier Society

^^The Demographic Transition in Quebec and Canada^^

• New France
  • Marriage
  • High fertility
  • Low death rates
• Quiet Revolution
  • Fertility decline

^^The 19th Century Onward: From Rural to Urban Industrial Society^^

• Canada

^^Future Outlook^^

• Increase in senior population
• Decrease in young population
• *Immigration → population growth