Chapter 3: Canada's Population in a Global Context
Population: Past, Present, and Futures
Population History
^^World Population Today^^
Population of the world in 2014: 7.238 billion
LDC = 82% of world’s total population
Doubling time: the number of years it would take for the population to double if its current rate of growth were to remain unchanged
→ Used to determine how fast a population is growing
From Gradual to Explosive Growth
Growth history
- Beginning of humanity - 1750: slow population growth
- 1750 - present: explosive increase in population growth
3 population surges
- Acquisition of clothing
- Sedentarization + development of agriculture
- Industrial Revolution
Depopulation
- Plague
The Demographic Transition
Demographic transition
- High rates of births and deaths
- High birth and declining death rates
- Low rates of fertility and mortality
^^The Demographic Transition in the Industrialized Countries^^
- Pre-decline rise in fertility = every case of demographic transition
- Cause: modernization
- Increase in living standard → increase in populations’ health → rise of natural fertility levels → contraception becomes widespread
^^Mechanisms of Transition: Westerns and Japanese Experiences^^
- Multiphasic response theory: assumes the widespread fertility declines in a society occur in a context of rising socioeconomic opportunities, coupled with sustained high rates of natural increase due to declining death rates (in infancy and childhood)
- Ireland
- Japan
^^Demographic Transition of Developing Countries^^
- Differences between demographic histories of the West and developing countries
- Sweden vs. Mexico
^^Transitional and Delayed Transition Societies^^
- Transitional populations: countries that have recently completed or are approaching the end of demographic transition
- Delayed transition populations: countries where the demographic transition has only recently begun
^^What Accounts for Delayed Development?^^
- Industrialization + technological innovation
- Geography + climate
- Colonization
- Unequal exchange relations between industrialized and developing countries
^^Mechanisms of Demographic Transition: Westerns and Non-Western Cases^^
- Decrease in fertility rates:
- Innovation theorists: emphasize the role played by new contraceptive technologies and new ideas emphasizing small families
- Adjustment theorists: new socioeconomic opportunities in a context of industrialization and urbanization made large families less desirable than before
- The rapid spread of Western ideas and a change in the way parents and society think about children
- Implementation of family planning programs
- Improvements in education and literacy among women
^^Demographic Transition and World Population Growth^^
- Decline in death rates → world population explosion
World Population Futures
- Population growth rate: expected to continue declining steadily
- Post-transitional regime: low fertility, high life expectancy, low rates of natural increase, high levels of demographic aging
^^World Population Projections^^
- Population projection: computational exercise intended to determine a future population’s size and age-sex distribution
- 2050 = 9.6 billion
^^Population Momentum^^
- Population momentum: the amount of unavoidable growth that is built into the current age structure of the population
^^Some Demographic Certainties for the Future^^
- Population growth → developing countries
- Populations will become older
- Decline in proportion of children → more developed countries
Canadian Population History: An Overview
Demographic Conditions in the Frontier Society
^^The Demographic Transition in Quebec and Canada^^
- New France
- Marriage
- High fertility
- Low death rates
- Quiet Revolution
^^The 19th Century Onward: From Rural to Urban Industrial Society^^
^^Future Outlook^^
- Increase in senior population
- Decrease in young population
- *Immigration → population growth
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