Chapter 3: Canada's Population in a Global Context

Population: Past, Present, and Futures

Population History

^^World Population Today^^

  • Population of the world in 2014: 7.238 billion

  • LDC = 82% of world’s total population

  • Doubling time: the number of years it would take for the population to double if its current rate of growth were to remain unchanged

    → Used to determine how fast a population is growing

From Gradual to Explosive Growth

  • Growth history

    • Beginning of humanity - 1750: slow population growth
    • 1750 - present: explosive increase in population growth
  • 3 population surges

    1. Acquisition of clothing
    2. Sedentarization + development of agriculture
    3. Industrial Revolution
  • Depopulation

    1. Plague

The Demographic Transition

  • Demographic transition

    1. High rates of births and deaths
    2. High birth and declining death rates
    3. Low rates of fertility and mortality

^^The Demographic Transition in the Industrialized Countries^^

  • Pre-decline rise in fertility = every case of demographic transition
    • Cause: modernization
    • Increase in living standard → increase in populations’ health → rise of natural fertility levels → contraception becomes widespread

^^Mechanisms of Transition: Westerns and Japanese Experiences^^

  • Multiphasic response theory: assumes the widespread fertility declines in a society occur in a context of rising socioeconomic opportunities, coupled with sustained high rates of natural increase due to declining death rates (in infancy and childhood)
  • Ireland
  • Japan

^^Demographic Transition of Developing Countries^^

  • Differences between demographic histories of the West and developing countries
  • Sweden vs. Mexico

^^Transitional and Delayed Transition Societies^^

  • Transitional populations: countries that have recently completed or are approaching the end of demographic transition
  • Delayed transition populations: countries where the demographic transition has only recently begun

^^What Accounts for Delayed Development?^^

  • Industrialization + technological innovation
  • Geography + climate
  • Colonization
  • Unequal exchange relations between industrialized and developing countries

^^Mechanisms of Demographic Transition: Westerns and Non-Western Cases^^

  • Decrease in fertility rates:
    • Innovation theorists: emphasize the role played by new contraceptive technologies and new ideas emphasizing small families
    • Adjustment theorists: new socioeconomic opportunities in a context of industrialization and urbanization made large families less desirable than before
    • The rapid spread of Western ideas and a change in the way parents and society think about children
    • Implementation of family planning programs
    • Improvements in education and literacy among women

^^Demographic Transition and World Population Growth^^

  • Decline in death rates → world population explosion

World Population Futures

  • Population growth rate: expected to continue declining steadily
  • Post-transitional regime: low fertility, high life expectancy, low rates of natural increase, high levels of demographic aging

^^World Population Projections^^

  • Population projection: computational exercise intended to determine a future population’s size and age-sex distribution
  • 2050 = 9.6 billion

^^Population Momentum^^

  • Population momentum: the amount of unavoidable growth that is built into the current age structure of the population

^^Some Demographic Certainties for the Future^^

  • Population growth → developing countries
  • Populations will become older
  • Decline in proportion of children → more developed countries

Canadian Population History: An Overview

  • Canada

Demographic Conditions in the Frontier Society

^^The Demographic Transition in Quebec and Canada^^

  • New France
    • Marriage
    • High fertility
    • Low death rates
  • Quiet Revolution
    • Fertility decline

^^The 19th Century Onward: From Rural to Urban Industrial Society^^

  • Canada

^^Future Outlook^^

  • Increase in senior population
  • Decrease in young population
  • *Immigration → population growth

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