State: An entity that has a geographically defined territory, stable population owing allegiance to an effective government, and is recognized diplomatically by other states.

State Power

• Power: The ability to influence others and control outcomes, producing results that would not have occurred naturally.

• Power Potential: A measure of the power an entity like a state could have, derived from a consideration of both its tangible and untangible resources; states may not always be able to transfer their power potential into actual power.

• Realists focus primarily on natural and tangible power sources.

• Liberals pay attention to natural, tangible, and intangible sources.

• Constructivists emphasize the sources found in the power of ideas (nontangible).

Natural Sources of Power Potential

• The 3 most important natural sources of power potential are geographical size and position, natural resources, and population.

• In the 1890’s, power was believed to be dominant to whoever had control over the ocean routes controls the world.

• In 1900’s, power was believed to be dominant to whoever had control over the Heartland of Eurasia (Europe, Asia and Africa). Another example of this is the China plan for roads, railways, pipelines, and cables across Eurasia.

• Geographic power potential is magnified or constrained by natural resources.

• Health status, age distribution, and level of social services may magnify or constrain state power in regards to population.

• An example of population constraint is Ethiopia with 112 million people but a gross domestic product

Tangible Sources of Power Potential

• Industrial development, economic diversification, level of infrastructure, and characteristics of the military are critical tangible sources of power potential.

• Examples of Natural Sources of Power are geography, natural resources and population.

• Examples of Tangible Sources of Power are industrial development, level of infrastructure, and characteristics of military.

• Examples of Intangible Sources of Power are national image, public support, and leadership.

Intangible Sources of Power Potential

• When public support is absent, the power potential of the state diminishes.

• An example of loss of public support is the war effort for Vietnam.

• Britain’s Winston Churchill is an example of augmenting the power potential of their states by taking bold initiatives.

• Constructivists recognize that power comes from tangible and intangible sources but also ideas and languages.

Hard Versus Soft Power

• Hard Power: refers to a state’s exploitation of the various sources of power to coerce other states into adopting actions in its interest.

• Soft Power: refers to a state’s attempt to persuade other actors to do things it wants based on the legitimacy of its own actions, values, or policies.

• An example of soft power is the countries of Europe working to adopt policies for climate change.

• Smart Power: A combination of hard and soft power.

• An example of smart power is Russia and Ukraine natural gas dispute and Russia providing covid masks.

Tools of Statecraft

• Statecraft: Techniques states use to exert influence and project power including diplomacy, economic, and use of force tools.

• Credibility: The quality of having both the ability and incentive to act using a certain policy such that other states believe it will be carried out.

The Art of Diplomacy

• Diplomacy: The practice of states trying to influence the behavior of other states by bargaining, negotiating, taking specific noncoercive actions, or refraining from such actions, or appealing to the foreign public for support of a position.

• Diplomacy usually begins with negotiation, through indirect or direct communication, in an attempt to reach an agreement.

• In Tacit Bargaining, actions (as opposed to verbal statements or written proposals) are the critical means of communication.

• States seldom enter diplomatic bargaining or negotiations as power equals.

• There are 2 levels of bargaining simultaneously.

• The 1st level of bargaining is international bargaining between states.

• The 2nd level of bargaining is bargaining between the state’s negotiators and its various domestic constituencies, both to reach a negotiating position and to ratify the agreement.

• The negotiator is the formal link between the two levels of negotiation.

• An example of the 2 level game is the US and Mexico negotiation of trade in 2019.

• Public Diplomacy: Involves a country strategically targeting publics and elites in foreign countries with informational, cultural, and educational programming.

• An example of Public Diplomacy is China’s Confucius Institute for promoting Chinese language and culture.

• The end goal of public diplomacy is to create an image that enhances the advocating country’s ability to achieve its diplomatic objectives by persuading the target country’s government to adopt policies consistent with the advocating country’s interests.

• Track One Diplomacy: Negotiations among government officials taken on behalf of governments.

• Traditional and Public Diplomacy are types of Track One Diplomacy. They both involve talks and negotiations among government officials or actions taken as official government policy.

• Track Two Diplomacy: Consists of individuals from outside the government engaging in informal diplomatic interactions with the aim of helping to resolve their conflicts.

• Example of Track 1 and Track 2 Diplomacy is the Israel and Palestine 1993 Oslo Accords.

• Positive Incentive example is diplomatic recognition or foreign aid in return for desired actions.

• Negative Consequence example is reduction or elimination of foreign aid, use of coercive force.

Economic Statecraft

• Engagement: Getting a target state to act in a desired way by rewarding the moves it makes in the desired direction; often referred to as positive sanctions.

• Sanctions: Economic, diplomatic and even coercive military force used to enforce an international policy or another state’s policy; sanctions can be positive (offering to a state) or negative (punishing a state).

• Smart Sanctions: Limited sanctions targeted to hurt or support specific groups; used to avoid the humanitarian costs of general sanctions.

• An example of Smart Sanctions are freezing assets of governments and/or individuals and imposing sanctions on commodities (oil, diamonds, timber).

The Use of Force

• Compellence: A state threatens to use force to try to get another state to do something or to undo an act it has undertaken.

• An example of compellence is George Bush and the UN threatening Iraq to comply Saddam’s Baathist regime to leave Iraq to avert war.

• Deterrence: States commit themselves to punishing a target state if that state takes an undesired action.

• An example of Deterrence is threats of war.

• First-strike Capability: The ability to know with absolute certainty that a state could annihilate its adversary’s nuclear capability in one go.

• For Compellence or Deterrence to be effective, states must clearly and openly communicate their objectives and capabilities, be willing to make good on threats or fulfill promises, and have the capacity to follow through with their commitments.

Models of Foreign Policy Decision Making

The Rational Model, The Realist Approach

• Under the rational model, the state is assumed to be a unitary actor with established goals, a set of possible policy options, and an algorithm for deciding which option best meets its goals.

1. The PRC(China) was testing missiles over the ROC(Taiwan) in direct threat to the latter’s national security.

2. The goal of both the ROC(Taiwan) and its major supporter, the United States, was to stop the firings immediately.

3. The ROC(Taiwan) decision makers had several options; do nothing, wait until after the upcoming elections, issue diplomatic protests, bring the issue to the UN Security Council, threaten or conduct military operations against the PRC(China), or threaten or use economic statecraft.

4. THe ROC(Taiwan) leaders analyzed the benefits and costs of these options; doing nothing would suggest that the missile testing was acceptable; the PRC(China) would exercise its veto in the UN Security Council; and economic or military actions the ROC undertook were unlikely to be successful against the stronger adversary, potentially leading to the destruction of Taiwan.

5. The ROC(Taiwan) weighed these costs against the possible benefits of each policy, and chose the one with the most benefits relative to costs. With U.S. support, it chose diplomatic protest as a first step.

The Rational Model of Decision Making

State as unitary actor. 1. clearly indentifies the problem 2. Makes the goal clear 3. Determines policy alternatives 4. analyzes costs and benefits of alternatives 5. selects action that produces best outcome at least cost.

The Organizational, Bureaucratic, and Puralist Models; The Liberal Approaches

• The rational model used by rationalists, focuses on outside stimuli that drive decision making of a unitary state actor.

• The Organizational model can capture the impact that departments or ministries of government can have.

• Organizational Process Model: Emphasizes different government organizations’ standard operating procedures (SOPs) and routines.

• The Bureaucratic Politics Model: focuses on negotiations among individuals that head various organizations within the government representing different interests.

• The interests of the Bureaucatic are determined by where in the government they are located.

• Trade and environmental policy are examples of the bureaucratic politics model of decision-making at work.

• An example of Bureaucracies are the ministries of agriculture, industry, and labor in the case of trade policy. And Environment, economics and labor in the case of environmental policy.

• Satisficing: Settling for a decision that is a minimally acceptable solution, even if that decision is not the best possible outcome.

• Puralist Model: Focuses on the fact that societal groups may play very important roles in the foreign policies adopted by states and captures decision-making processes involving these actors.

• Societal groups can influence the decisions by mobilizing the media and public opinion, lobbying government agencies responsible for making decisions, influencing the appropriate representative bodies (U.S. Congress), organize transnational networks of people with comparable interests, and make direct contact with the highest government officials.

Constructivist Alternatives

• Constructivists hold that foreign policy decisions are based on 2 major factors; the country’s strategic culture, and the leaders’ interpretation of international norms.

• An example of a country’s strategic culture is a country’s historical experience, philosophies, values, institutions, and understandings of its geography and development.

• Foreign policy decisions are determined by leaders’ beliefs that their actions are congruent with the international norms they have appropriated in interpretation of international norms.

Transnational Religious and Ideological Movements

• Transnational Movements: Groups of people from different states who share religious, ideological, or policy beliefs and who work together to change the status quo.

• Samuel Huntington predicted that the next great international conflic would be a “clash of civilizations” arising from underlying differences between Western liberal democracy and Islamic fundamentalism.

• Extremist Islamic Fundamentalism: Groups seeking to chance states and societies through violent and coercive means to support imposition of Sharia law.

• Extremist groups advocate violence as the means to overthrow corrupt rulers and install religious authority steeped in Sharia law.

• Mujahideen: “holy warriors” for Islamic supporters.

• Jihad: “holy war” for Islam.

• Osama Bin Laden and what remained of the Mujahideen formed the Al Qaeda group.

• The conflict in the Sunni-Shia divide is based on who the legitimate successor is to the prophet Muhammad.

• IS: Islamic State

• Infidels: Nonbelievers from the West.

• The IS’s goal was to bring grandeur, authority, and stability to the caliphate by capturing territory, exploiting resources in that territory to gain economic support, and establishing governance with a strict legal system bringing swift justice to offenders and and educational and social service system.

• The IS hasn’t achieved their goals however, and has killed those who oppose strict application of Islamic law, Shiites, and infidels.

• Boko Haram is also known as “western ways are forbidden” is a radical Islamist guerrilla group fighting the Nigerian military in the north.

• Transnational movements can include religion, ideology, environment, human rights, development, opposition to abortion, family planning, or immigration.

Ethnonational Movements

• Ethnonational Movements: The participation in organized political activity of self-concious communities sharing an ethnic affiliation; some movements seek autonomy within an organized state; other desire separation and the formation of a new state; still others want to join with a different state.

• The Kazaks, Serbs, and the Albanian Kosovars groups all sought to facilitate their demands through cell phones and the internet.

• Kashmir is a mountainous area at the intersection of India, Pakistan, and China.

• Kashmir is divided by a 450 mile line of control patrolled by Pakistan and India troops.

Fragile States

• Fragile States: State which has ineffective or nonexistent government, widespread lawlessness, often accompanied by insurgency and crime; situation where state authorities are not protecting their own people.

• A fragile state has an inability to exercise a monopoly on the legitimate use of force within their territory, to make collective decisions because of the erosion of legitimate authority, to interact with other states in the international system, and/or provide public services.

• The Fragile States Index is produced annually and based on 12 social, economic, and political indicators.