1.7 Factors Affecting Voter Behavior

I. Geography

A. Solid South – traditionally Democratic, but increasingly more Republican now.  Why?

B. Great Plains – Republican trend.

C. Rocky Mountain – Republican trend.

D. New England – increasingly Democratic in recent years

E. Great Lakes – Democratic trend, heavy populated with “swing” states (Ohio, Indiana, etc.)

F. Republicans have built on the “L” – Rocky Mountains – South

G. Far West – Democratic trend

II. Presence of an especially strong presidential candidate – coattail effect

III. Time

A. Maintaining elections – political alignment remains the same (1960, 1964).

B. Realigning (“critical”) elections – long-term change in political alignment 

Democratic Rule via Roosevelt v. Hoover – 1932

C. Midterm elections – party in power has lost seats in Congress every midterm election since 1938 (except 1998 and 2002…huge in 2006…Iraq War factor?).

IV. Political party affiliation (PARTISANSHIP)

A. Probably the strongest predictor of voting behavior.

B. However, more people probably are “vote the man/woman, not the party” than in the past.

C. Straight ticket voting – decline in recent years.  Facilitated by party-column ballots.

D. Split ticket voting – increase in recent years.  Facilitated by office-column ballots.

E. Some party members are classified as “strong” and others as “weak”

F. Independents

1. Rising number (~ 1/3 of the electorate) → decline in Republican and Democratic members.

2. Some are “leaners”: independent Republican or independent Democrats

3. Others are pure independents, with no pattern of voting behavior. (~ 13 %)

4. Many tend to be young, college educated, with above average incomes.

V. Demographic factors

A. Sex

1. Males – more likely than females to vote Republican.

2. Females – more likely than males to vote Democratic.

B. Race

1. White – more likely than non-whites to vote Republican.

2. Non-white – more likely than whites to vote Democratic.  Blacks are the most loyal Democratic voters.

3. Hispanics will overtake Caucasians as the majority in America by 2050…certainly could affect electoral 

C. Social Class

1. Lower – more likely to than upper to vote Democratic.

2. Upper – more likely than lower to vote Republican.

D. Religion

1. Protestant – more likely to vote Republican.

2. Catholic – more likely to vote Democratic, although Bush 43 won this demographic in 2004.

3. Jewish – more likely to vote Democratic.

F. Issues 

1. Retrospective voting – looking back on whether or not things have gotten better or worse since the last election.

2. Prospective voting – looking at the candidates’ views on the issues, and who they will accordingly handle the office if elected.

a. The economy – “It’s the economy stupid!” in 1992, Bush 41 promised tax cuts to pull the economy out of recession.

b. War – Elections during war-time can increase turnout.

c. Social issues – played a significant role in recent elections.

G. Candidate appeal

1. Masters of candidate appeal – JFK, Clinton, Bush 43, Obama, Clinton?

2. Disasters of candidate appeal – Dukakis, Dole, Kerry, Romney, Trump?