Notes on Existential Risks and Technological Advancement

The Badness of Extinction (Derek Parfit)

• Argument Overview: Parfit discusses the moral implications of human extinction, comparing three potential futures:
  • (1) Peaceful Existence: Humanity continues to thrive.
  • (2) Nuclear War (99% Fatality): Large but not total loss, leading to a decrease in happiness.
  • (3) Nuclear War (100% Fatality): Total annihilation with a far greater negative impact than (2).
• Key Comparison: Most regard the difference between (1) and (2) as greater than that between (2) and (3), but Parfit argues that the latter difference is significantly larger.
• Two Perspectives Supporting Parfit's View:
  1. Classical Utilitarian View: Humanity's extinction would significantly reduce the total sum of happiness achievable in the future.
  2. Ideal Goods Perspective: Achievements in sciences, arts, and moral progress will cease, preventing further advancements towards a just and flourishing society over future centuries.

Astronomical Waste and Technological Development (Nick Bostrom)

• Concept of Opportunity Cost: Delays in developing advanced technologies result in missing out on countless lives that could have existed.
• Resource Availability: The Virgo Supercluster could support approximately 10^{22} biological humans based on its star count and potential life sustainment.
• Loss of Potential Lives: Each second of delay equates to a loss of around 10^{14} human lives, emphasizing the massive scale of opportunity cost.
• Utilitarian Perspective:
  • The potential for human lives is equated to a massive loss of worthwhile value as every delay in technological advancement postpones the creation of valuable lives.
  • The main goal of utilitarians should shift to reducing existential risks rather than merely accelerating technology due to the profound consequences of failure to colonize.

Reducing Existential Risk

• Existential Risk Importance: Reducing existential risk (threats that could eliminate or drastically reduce intelligent life) is the primary task over merely pushing for technological advancements.
• Value of Risk Reduction: A slight improvement in existential risk percentage can represent a significant delay in potential benefits, emphasizing a need for prioritizing safety in development.

The Singularity: A Philosophical Analysis (David Chalmers)

• Defining the Singularity: A theoretical moment when artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence, leading to rapid advancements beyond human comprehension.
• Intelligence Explosion:
  • Initial ultraintelligent machines can design even more capable machines, leading to a recursive loop of self-improvement.
  • Questions arise about whether there are physical limits to intelligence and processing speed.
• Potential Consequences:
  • Positive Outcomes: Advancements may lead to cures for diseases, eradication of poverty, and significant scientific breakthroughs.
  • Negative Outcomes: Risks include the potential extinction of humanity, dominance by superintelligent machines, or catastrophic arms races in machine development.
• Philosophical Questions: The singularity raises critical questions about intelligence, value, morality, human identity, and the potential for enhancing cognitive abilities through technology.

Practical and Philosophical Implications

• Need for Critical Thinking: The various implications of a potential singularity necessitate serious contemplation on the forms it may take and its consequences.
• Connection of Philosophy and Practice: Understanding intelligence in machines enlightens discussions on morality, identity, and the role of humanity in a post-singularity world.

Further Learning Resources

• Nick Bostrom on Existential Risk: Google Lecture on Superintelligence (specific segment 8:03 – 14:33).
• TED Talk: “What Happens When Our Computers Get Smarter Than We Are?”
• Interviews on A.I. Risks: With figures like Bill Gates, Elon Musk, and Stephen Hawking discussing existential threats posed by A.I.