Lesson on Negotiation in International Conflict

Negotiation in International Conflict

Page 1: Title Slide

• NEGOTIATION IN INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT

• Source: virtual Benilde

Page 2: Topics Overview

• Topics Include:

  • Introduction

  • The negotiation option

  • The puzzle of civil war termination

  • The study of negotiation

    • Communication-based approaches

    • Realist approaches

  • Negotiation and the conflict cycle

  • Conclusion

Page 3: Introduction

• Historical Context:

  • Prior to WWII, interstate conflict was dominant in international relations.

  • Post-Cold War saw a shift to intrastate violence and intercommunal conflicts.

Page 4: Decline in Civil Wars

• Current Trends:

  • Civil wars have decreased in frequency and violence over the past two decades.

  • Supported by studies, including the Human Security Report (Mack, 2005).

  • Numerous conflicts have been resolved via negotiation, e.g., in Bosnia, Northern Ireland, and South Africa.

Page 5: War Termination Trends

• Two Major Trends:

  1. Decline in the onset of wars — understanding factors affecting this decline is crucial (Marshall & Gurr, 2005).

  2. Increased interest in negotiated settlements.

Page 6: Topics Overview Continued

• Summary of Topics:

  • Introduction

  • Negotiation option

  • Puzzle of civil war termination

  • Study of negotiation

  • Communication-based approaches

  • Realist approaches

  • Negotiation and the conflict cycle

  • Conclusion

Page 7: Preference for Negotiation

• Negotiation Feedback:

  • Growing preference for negotiation as a means of resolving disputes.

  • Driven by better understanding of interest-based negotiations (Fisher et al., 1991).

  • Focused on achieving ‘win-win’ solutions.

Page 8: Rise of International Institutions

• Historical Development:

  • Post-WWII saw growth in international institutions (e.g., UN, regional bodies) promoting multi-party negotiations.

Page 9: Limitations of Judicial Means

• Sovereignty Concerns:

  • States prioritize sovereignty and are reluctant to be governed by international legal institutions (Bilder, 1997).

  • As a result, bargaining remains the default option in disputes.

Page 10: Preferred Means of Settlement

• Post-WWII Dynamics:

  • International negotiation and diplomacy became primary methods for dispute resolution.

  • Influenced by advancements in nuclear technology.

Page 11: Nuclear Diplomacy Post-Cuban Crisis

• Crisis Management:

  • Nuclear brinksmanship led to diplomatic relations and discussions to reduce tensions through agreements on arms control.

Page 12: Influence of Realist Theories

• Strategic Calculations:

  • Realist theories highlight that balance of power, military stalemates, and domestic pressures affect negotiation prospects (Organski, 1968; Stein, 1990).

Page 13: Liberal Theories & Democratic States

• Democratic Peace Theory:

  • Democratic states have a tendency to resolve conflicts peacefully (Russett, 1993).

  • Exceptions exist with weak democracies exhibiting aggressive behaviors (Mansfield & Snyder, 1995).

Page 14: Rise of Pluralist Values

• Democratic Trends:

  • The increase in democratic states enhances the preference for diplomacy in international relations (Huntington, 1993).

Page 15: Historical Democratic Waves

• Democratic Surges:

  • Huntington's theory on democratic waves illustrates the rise and decline of democracies globally (1800-2003).

Page 16: Sovereignty Challenges

• Sovereignty & Human Rights Violations:

  • Sovereignty hinders challenges to status quo unless human rights are violated.

Page 17: Humanitarian Interventions

• Justification for Interventions:

  • Interventions in conflicts often occur under humanitarian pretenses but should be a last resort after negotiation options have been exhausted.

  • Example: Croatian army's actions leading to independence of regions.

Page 18: Civil War Termination Puzzle

• Intrastate Conflicts:

  • Civil wars saw a rise during the Cold War, with a notable decline later on.

Page 19: Long Civil Wars & Negotiated Settlements

• Key Observations:

  • Long civil wars often end through negotiations as neither side achieves a decisive military victory (Licklider, 2005).

Page 20: Superpower Interests in Negotiated Settlements

• Cold War Context:

  • The end of the Cold War led superpowers to seek negotiated resolutions to end costly proxy wars.

Page 21: Topics Overview Repeated

• Summary of Topics:

  • Introduction

  • Negotiation option

  • Puzzle of civil war termination

  • Study of negotiation

  • Communication-based approaches

  • Realist approaches

  • Negotiation and the conflict cycle

  • Conclusion

Page 22: Small-State Involvement

• Negotiation Intermediaries:

  • Small and medium-sized powers seek to mediate conflicts and facilitate negotiations.

  • Examples: Norway, Australia, and Switzerland.

Page 23: Role of NGOs in Negotiation

• Community Initiatives:

  • Organizations like the Community of Sant’ Egidio have been active mediators in various conflicts, facilitating discussions and negotiations at multiple levels.

Page 24: Additional Topics Overview

• Summary of Topics:

  • Introduction

  • Negotiation option

  • Puzzle of civil war termination

  • Study of negotiation

  • Communication-based approaches

  • Realist approaches

  • Negotiation and the conflict cycle

  • Conclusion

Page 25: Approaches to the Study of Negotiation

• Classification of Approaches:

  • Communication-based approaches emphasize dialogue and trust-building.

  • Realist approaches focus on utility and strategic advantages in negotiations.

Page 26: Repeat of Topics Overview

• Summary of Topics:

  • Introduction

  • Negotiation option

  • Puzzle of civil war termination

  • Study of negotiation

  • Communication-based approaches

  • Realist approaches

  • Negotiation and the conflict cycle

  • Conclusion

Page 27: Communication-Based Approaches

• Emphasis on Trust:

  • Changing perceptions through negotiation to foster trust and enable concessions.

  • Involvement of civil leaders is essential for sustainability.

Page 28: Conflict Perceptions and Dialogue

• Foundations of Dialogue:

  • Initiating informal dialogues helps build relationships before formal negotiations.

Page 29: Role of Third Parties

• Facilitating Negotiation:

  • Third parties establish communication channels and frame discussions to break impasses and promote mutual understanding.

Page 30: Topics Overview Again

• Summary of Topics:

  • Introduction

  • Negotiation option

  • Puzzle of civil war termination

  • Study of negotiation

  • Communication-based approaches

  • Realist approaches

  • Negotiation and the conflict cycle

  • Conclusion

Page 31: Realist Approaches Overview

• Utility Maximization:

  • Realists view negotiation through utility calculations, influencing behaviors and outcomes.

  • Factors include perceived prospects of military victory vs. negotiated settlements.

Page 32: Timing in Negotiation

• Critical Timing:

  • Successful negotiation requires the parties to be exhausted and seeking alternatives to continued violence.

  • External pressure and incentives can improve negotiation acceptance.

Page 33: Handling Penalties and Inducements

• Careful Introduction of Benefits:

  • Inducements must be managed carefully to avoid unintended consequences that could undermine negotiations.

Page 34: Overview of Topics Repeated

• Summary of Topics:

  • Introduction

  • Negotiation option

  • Puzzle of civil war termination

  • Study of negotiation

  • Communication-based approaches

  • Realist approaches

  • Negotiation and the conflict cycle

  • Conclusion

Page 35: Conflict Cycle Perspectives

• Trust & Risk in Bargaining:

  • Communication-based perspectives favor dialogue to build trust.

  • Realists argue for negotiations only when violent options are exhausted.

Page 36: Stages of Conflict

• Conflict Phases:

  • Conflicts evolve through phases: rising tensions, confrontation, violence, and de-escalation.

Page 37: Post-Settlement Phases

• De-escalation Dynamics:

  • Post-agreement may include ceasefires and formal settlements, occasionally reverting to violence.

Page 38: Heated Political Exchanges

• Discussion Scenario:

  • Analyzing the role of the U.S. in Ukraine-Russia relations and public perception dynamics.

Page 39: Zelensky’s Visit to the White House

• Key Points from Meeting:

  • Agreement on U.S. access to Ukraine's mineral resources in exchange for support.

  • Importance of security guarantees highlighted by Zelensky.

Page 40: Trump-Zelenskyy Interaction Video

• Visual Insight:

  • Recording of the meeting showcasing negotiation dynamics over Ukraine's situation

Page 41: London Summit Photo

• Summit Attendees:

  • Various leaders gathered to discuss commitments to Ukraine amidst ongoing tensions.

Page 42: London Summit Agenda

• Focus Areas:

  • Leaders working on ceasefire plan, with emphasis on U.S. negotiations without EU involvement.

Page 43: Finnish Peace Plan Proposal

• Three-Phase Structure:

  • Suggested phases focusing on pressure on Russia, ceasefire, and overall peace agreement.

Page 44: Summary Video Link

• Visual Resource:

  • Relevant video on Finnish President's perspectives on negotiations.

Page 45: Critical Analysis Questions

• Discussion Points:

  • Importance of European involvement and guarantees for ceasefire reliability.

Page 46: Final Topics Overview

• Summary of Topics:

  • Introduction

  • Negotiation option

  • Puzzle of civil war termination

  • Study of negotiation

  • Communication-based approaches

  • Realist approaches

  • Negotiation and the conflict cycle

  • Conclusion

Page 47: Conclusion - Negotiation Willingness

• Protagonist Behavior:

  • Increasing tendency for parties to negotiate due to battlefield stalemates and prolonged violence.

Page 48: Supply and Demand Factors

• Third-party Assistance:

  • Abundance of negotiation facilitators aids resolution processes.

  • Successful engagement involves broad societal involvement for sustainable trust.

Page 49: References

• Cited Work:

  • Negotiation and International Conflict by Fen Osler Hampson, Chester A. Crocker, Pamela R. Aall