Hypothesis Testing 2.0

Introduction to Research on Null Hypotheses

  • A population is all possible cases of a certain entity with similar characteristics.

    • Can be defined broadly (e.g., all people) or more narrowly (e.g., people in Texas, people at a school).

  • Full population study is often impractical due to changing demographics and costs.

    • Example: A census collects data that quickly becomes outdated.

  • Researchers often rely on samples that ideally resemble the larger population.

Sampling Methods

  • Random Sampling: Minimizes bias; includes:

    • Simple Random Sampling: Every individual has an equal chance.

    • Systematic Random Sampling: Collect data at fixed intervals (e.g., every 10th person).

  • Stratified Sampling: Population divided into smaller groups (strata) like age, gender, ethnicity, with equal representation from each group.

  • Non-Random Sampling: Used when random sampling isn't practical, such as convenience samples.

  • Sampling Criteria: Specific requirements for selecting a sample relevant to the study type.

    • Example: Studying students with disabilities requires targeted sampling rather than random.

Sampling Error

  • Defined as the degree to which a sample differs from the population.

    • Larger samples generally produce results that resemble the population more closely, reducing sampling error.

  • Standard Error: Inversely related to sample size; as sample size increases, standard error decreases.

Two Types of Hypotheses

  • Null Hypothesis (H0): Assumes no relationship or difference exists.

    • Example: No relationship between cholesterol levels and heart disease incidence.

    • Always stated negatively in relation to the alternative hypothesis.

  • Research Hypothesis: Posits a relationship or difference that the study will investigate.

    • Example: An exercise group will differ from a non-exercising group in outcome.

  • Number of null hypotheses increases with the number of independent variables.

    • Example: One independent variable leads to one null hypothesis; two variables lead to three null hypotheses; three lead to seven, etc.

Tests Involving Null Hypotheses

  • Null hypotheses are foundational for statistical tests; often retained or rejected based on analysis results.

  • As sample size grows, confidence in the findings increases, allowing for the null hypothesis to be tested appropriately.

One-Directional vs Two-Directional Null Hypotheses

  • One-Directional Null Hypothesis: Predicts a specific direction of impact (improvement expected).

    • Example: New fertilizer will increase crop yield.

  • Two-Directional Null Hypothesis: Examines change without specifying direction (increase or decrease).

    • Example: Fertilizer could either increase or decrease yield, thus both tails of the distribution are evaluated.

Rejection Regions and Alpha Levels

  • Alpha Level (α): Represents the significance level for rejecting the null hypothesis; often set at 0.05 or 0.01.

    • One-tailed test: 5% rejection area in one tail means focusing only on increases or decreases.

    • Two-tailed test: 5% rejection area split between two tails; needs to consider both potential changes.

  • Null hypothesis is rejected if sample mean lies in the rejection region based on calculated Z scores.

    • Example: A Z score of 2.54 would lead to rejection if it exceeds the critical Z score threshold for the set alpha.

Type I and Type II Errors

  • Type I Error: Rejecting a true null hypothesis (false positive).

    • Example: Finding a drug effective in lowering cholesterol when it is not impactful in the population.

  • Type II Error: Failing to reject a false null hypothesis (false negative).

    • Example: Not finding an effect that does exist, often problematic with small sample sizes.

  • Test Power: Likelihood of correctly rejecting a false null hypothesis; increases with larger sample sizes.

Summary of Key Concepts

  • Emphasis on accurate hypothesis creation; hypothesis should be concise and reflect research aims.

  • Different methodologies (parametric and non-parametric) discussed:

    • Parametric Methods: Use when data meet normality assumptions (e.g., Pearson's correlation, T-tests).

    • Non-Parametric Methods: Employed when data doesn't meet parametric assumptions.

  • Other important concepts include: Levine's test to check group variances for equality before analysis.

  • Encourage further discussion with the instructor for clarifications and deeper understanding.

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