Can the International Criminal Court Deter Atrocity? Notes

Abstract

• Central issue: control violence to spare innocent lives in international relations.

• International Criminal Court (ICC): aims to enhance security by preventing human rights abuses.

• First systematic assessment of ICC's deterrent effects on state & non-state actors.

• Conditional impact: ICC can deter some governments and legimitate-seeking rebel groups.

• Research indicates ICC's role in reducing violence by pursuing justice.

Introduction

• ICC's role in international law remains ambiguous in a system of sovereign states.

• ICC has jurisdiction over military, strategic logic; lacks own police force.

• Difficulty: prosecuting state agents & non-state actors like rebel leaders.

• Goals: peace, security, justice for atrocities.

• Research questions: Can ICC reduce egregious human rights violations?

Importance of ICC Impact

• ICC's authority to enforce international law against serious crimes; crucial to examine deterrence.

• Focus: preventing widespread killing of civilians in countries with civil wars.

• Broad view on deterrence:

  • Prosecutorial Deterrence: directly reduces law-breaking through fear of punishment.

  • Social Deterrence: informal consequences calculated by potential perpetrators; relies on societal standards.

• Effective deterrence arises when both prosecutorial & social aspects reinforce.

Mechanisms of Deterrence

• ICC's influence may extend beyond perceived weakness; several pathways can deter law violations.

• Stronger impact on governments than rebels; ICC's presence prompts domestic reforms (notable in Uganda, Kenya, Côte d'Ivoire).

Evaluation of the ICC's Effectiveness

• Standards for evaluation: contribution to justice, normative value, societal atonement, legitimacy with local victims.

• Critics argue ICC may not calibrate threats and may complicate peacemaking.

• Evidence: ICC ratification can correlate with decreased civil war hostilities and reduced human rights abuses.

Social and Legal Mechanisms of Deterrence

Prosecutorial Deterrence

• Works via fear of sanctions from legal prosecution; likelihood and promptness of punishment matter.

• In criminology, higher conviction rates correlate with reduced crime, emphasizing likelihood over severity.

• ICC was designed to enhance likelihood of prosecution for egregious crimes.

Social Deterrence

• ICC embodies community norms against crimes; social reactions deter violations.

• Literature emphasizes informal social pressures as instrumental in compliance with international norms.

• Relevant during periods where formal institutions struggle.

Conditions for Deterrence

• ICC's effects vary among actors, influenced by exposure to prosecution risk and social cost perceptions.

• States dependent on aid may be more deterred due to vulnerability to foreign pressure.

• Rebel groups with secessionist aims may adapt behaviors to comply with norms.

Empirical Investigation of the ICC’s Impact

• Study across 101 states with 264 rebel groups since 1989; analyzing intentional civilian killings.

• Findings: ICC ratification correlates with reduced civilian killings by government actors; stronger reduction evident post-ICC establishment.

Conclusions

• ICC's influence on deterrence is considerable, though conditional; has potential to deter some actors.

• Domestic legal reforms and civil society mobilization synergize with ICC efforts to promote accountability.

• Despite criticisms, ICC shows promise in reducing atrocities in specific contexts.