Kaiser 2011 & Morgan 2003
Kaiser 2011 - Does Family Planning Bring Down Fertility
Demographers: say that women’s lack of contraception keeps fertility high
Based on health surveys in developing countries
Unmet need
Important factors to consider: cultural taboos and fears of side effects (could be addressed only by intense public education campaigns
Strong government
Economists: say that family planning programs are a waste of money because fertility really depends on desired family size
Strongest predictors of a woman’s desired family size: income, education level, infant’s chances of surviving
So we should spend money on schooling, not family planning programs
Combination of both approaches!
Vaupel: argues that our lifespans will stay the same in the future
Olshansky: argues that our lifespans will decrease in the future
Our lifespans are guided by aspects of human biology that appear fairly fixed
Morgan 2003 - Is Low Fertility a Twenty-First-Century Demographic Crisis?
Total fertility rate: is declining below replacement levels
Women now have fewer children than they want and have children at late ages
Problem: dramatic population aging
Emerging Global Low Fertility
Only 16 countries are not showing evidence of a fertility transition
64 countries have fertility at replacement level or below
105 countries are experiencing fertility transitions
Only 2 countries have stopped their transition at a fertility level that is above the replacement level
Is Very Low Fertility Inevitable?
Bumpass: increased costs of children + idea that individuals should assess these costs and act in their self-interest
Campbell + Ryder: very low fertility is not inevitable
Low Versus High Parity Births
75%-90% are 1st or 2nd births
Proportion of women who intend to have 2 children is dominant in most developed countries
First children: desired for affective reasons
Second children: for family building
Higher order births: economic functions
Socioeconomic change
Large families are now viewed as inconsistent with good parenting
Powerful trends toward individualism and self-actualization
Biological predispositions reinforce the desire for parenthood
Institutional Adjustments
Institutional adjustments can make small families feasible
Importance of affordable, quality child care to weaken the incompatibility of work and childbearing
Gender + technological changes that affect the division of household labour
An Integrative Framework
TFR: results from the population’s intended family size x set of factors reflecting unanticipated effects
Delayed childbearing: can lead to women not having all the children they intend
High levels of infecundity at older ages
Importance of public policy and institutional responses
Is Low Fertility A Crisis?
Low fertility is not a crisis, it’s a problem
Low fertility: causes rapidly aging populations
Multiphasic response
Societies that can respond to the legitimate needs of their citizens and invest in the next generations will approximate replacement-level fertility
Kaiser 2011 & Morgan 2003
Kaiser 2011 - Does Family Planning Bring Down Fertility
Demographers: say that women’s lack of contraception keeps fertility high
Based on health surveys in developing countries
Unmet need
Important factors to consider: cultural taboos and fears of side effects (could be addressed only by intense public education campaigns
Strong government
Economists: say that family planning programs are a waste of money because fertility really depends on desired family size
Strongest predictors of a woman’s desired family size: income, education level, infant’s chances of surviving
So we should spend money on schooling, not family planning programs
Combination of both approaches!
Vaupel: argues that our lifespans will stay the same in the future
Olshansky: argues that our lifespans will decrease in the future
Our lifespans are guided by aspects of human biology that appear fairly fixed
Morgan 2003 - Is Low Fertility a Twenty-First-Century Demographic Crisis?
Total fertility rate: is declining below replacement levels
Women now have fewer children than they want and have children at late ages
Problem: dramatic population aging
Emerging Global Low Fertility
Only 16 countries are not showing evidence of a fertility transition
64 countries have fertility at replacement level or below
105 countries are experiencing fertility transitions
Only 2 countries have stopped their transition at a fertility level that is above the replacement level
Is Very Low Fertility Inevitable?
Bumpass: increased costs of children + idea that individuals should assess these costs and act in their self-interest
Campbell + Ryder: very low fertility is not inevitable
Low Versus High Parity Births
75%-90% are 1st or 2nd births
Proportion of women who intend to have 2 children is dominant in most developed countries
First children: desired for affective reasons
Second children: for family building
Higher order births: economic functions
Socioeconomic change
Large families are now viewed as inconsistent with good parenting
Powerful trends toward individualism and self-actualization
Biological predispositions reinforce the desire for parenthood
Institutional Adjustments
Institutional adjustments can make small families feasible
Importance of affordable, quality child care to weaken the incompatibility of work and childbearing
Gender + technological changes that affect the division of household labour
An Integrative Framework
TFR: results from the population’s intended family size x set of factors reflecting unanticipated effects
Delayed childbearing: can lead to women not having all the children they intend
High levels of infecundity at older ages
Importance of public policy and institutional responses
Is Low Fertility A Crisis?
Low fertility is not a crisis, it’s a problem
Low fertility: causes rapidly aging populations
Multiphasic response
Societies that can respond to the legitimate needs of their citizens and invest in the next generations will approximate replacement-level fertility