Objectives:

1. Discuss what “public opinion” is and how we measure it.

   1. Public opinion is defined as the collective opinion of how people think or feel about certain issues. It is made up of the attitudes, beliefs, and values of a population, and it can change over time. Public opinion is an important factor in determining the direction of public policy, since politicians sometimes take it into consideration when making decisions. One way of measuring public opinion is through polling, which is the practice of asking people questions in order to gauge their opinions on a certain topic. When polling people, random sampling is used to ensure that when selecting a sample of people from a population, that population represents the entire population. Stratified sampling is a method of random sampling. Stratified sampling is the process of dividing a population into certain categories, such as counties, and then selecting a sample that is representative of those categories.

2. Outline the major factors that shape public opinion.

   1. The first major factor that shapes public opinion is political socialization. Political socialization begins in the family, with parents passing down their own political beliefs and values to their children. This can happen through simple actions, such as children overhearing their parents talking about political news. Gender is another factor that shapes public opinion. Studies have found that women and men often have different opinions when it comes to politics, as women tend to prioritize social issues. Racial demographics are also a factor that can shape public opinion. For example,  African Americans have been overwhelmingly Democratic, and this can be seen since the Civil Rights movement from the 60s. Religion is another factor that can shape public opinion. People of different religions or those who are not religious at all may have different opinions on the same political issue. For example Jews and African American Protestants are on the left, while evangelical Protestants are on the right. Those who are more religious also tend to be more conservative on social issues.

3. Summarize the arguments for and against the claim that low levels of political knowledge among ordinary voters impact American democracy.

   1. Studies show that Americans don’t know much about the basic inner workings of our government. Some make the argument that this negatively impacts American democracy, while others think it doesn’t impact our democracy. Those who say it doesn’t say its because just because Americans don’t know specific details about politics doesn’t mean they cannot make reasonable decisions. They argue that citizens make information shortcuts to make informed decisions, called heuristics. However there are limits to heuristics, as they can lead to voters making worse decisions and lead them astray from what their actual beliefs are.

4. Discuss the relationship between public opinion and public policy.

   1. Typically, there is a positive correlation between public opinion and public policy. Policy change usually follows a change in public opinion, and this reinforces democratic theory, where government decisions do indeed reflect the will of the people. However, sometimes  policies do not follow the majority's will because the minority is more politically powerful, as the minority may be more politically engaged and pressure politicians accordingly. Government policy responds to those who participate in politics.

Overview of Public Opinion:

• Definition: expression of attitude about politics and government.

• Qualities of public opinion:

  • Salience (relevance and importance)

  • Stability (over time)

  • Direction (positive, negative, conservative, liberal)

  • Intensity (strength of opinion)

How Do We Measure Public Opinion:

• People polled must be a random sample of the entire population

  • Any voter has an equal chance of being interviewed

  • Stratified sampling involves dividing the population into subgroups (strata) and selecting a random sample from each stratum

• If the process is repeated using equally randomized methods, the pollster might get slightly different results. Generally speaking, polling is typically accurate.

What Drives Opinion:

• Political socialization from family: Children learn from political cues provided by their parents

• Young people’s political attitudes are very strongly influences by what happens during their formative years

  • Initial events they face shape how they see the political world.

  • Ex: Civil Rights Movement, Vietnam War, WWII, Cold War, 9/11.

• Women are more likely than men to identify as Democrats.

  • Women hold more liberal social welfare attitudes.

• African Americans have been overwhelmingly Democratic since the Civil Rights movement

• Jews and African American Protestants are on the left, while evangelical Protestants are on the right

• Those who are more religious are more conservative on social issues

• Associating with Democrats shows one is more left leaning, while associating with Republicans shows one is more right leaning

  • However most Americans who side wither either party are moderate

  • Ordinary voters are not polarized, but party sorting makes it seem like they are

Political Information and Public Opinion:

• Most Americans don’t know much about politics

  • More than 1 in 3 Americans can’t name a single branch of government

  • Only a quarter knows that a ⅔ vote of Congress can override a veto

• Some think this doesn’t harm American democracy

  • People can make reasonable decisions without knowing specifics of politics

  • Citizens can use information shortcuts to make well informed decisions- heuristics

• Heuristics have limits: can lead voters astray from their beliefs and they can make worse decisions

Public Opinion and Public Policy:

• Policy change usually follows a change in public opinion

  • Positive outcome in democratic theory: government decisions reflect the will of the people

• Sometimes policy does not reflect majority will because the minority is more politically powerful

  • Minority is more politically engaged and pressures politicians accordingly