Origins of the Phillips Curve:
Phillips curve- a curve that shows the short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment
Aggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply, and the Phillips Curve:
Shows the combinations of inflation and unemployment that arise in the short run as shifts in the aggregate-demand curve move the economy along the short-run aggregate supply curve.
Decreases in the money supply, cuts in government spending, or increases in taxes contract aggregate demand and move the economy to a point on the Phillips curve with lower inflation and higher unemployment.
Shifts in the Phillips Curve: The Role of Expectations:
The Long-Run Phillips Curve:
Natural rate of unemployment levels Unemployment does not depend on money growth and inflation in the long run.
The Meaning of “Natural”:
Reconciling Theory and Evidence:
The Short-Run Phillips Curve:
Unemployment rate = Natural rate of unemployment - a(actual inflation-expected inflation)The variable a is a parameter that measures how much unemployment responded to unexpected inflation
The Natural Experiment for the Natural-Rate Hypothesis:
Natural-rate hypothesis- the claim that unemployment eventually returns to its normal, or natural, rate, regardless of the rate of inflation
Supply shock- an event that directly alters firms’ costs and prices, shifting the economy’s aggregate supply curve and thus the Phillips curve
The Sacrifice Ratio:
Sacrifice Ratio- the number of percentage points of annual output lost in the process of reducing inflation by 1 percentage point
Rational Expectations and the Possibility of Costless Disinflation:
The Volcker Disinflation:
Does not necessarily refute the rational-expectations view that credible disinflation can be costless.
The Greenspan Era:
During this period, Alan Greenspan was chairman of the Federal Reserve
The Phillips Curve during the Financial Crisis:
Financial crisis caused by aggregate demand to plummet