Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault

Author and Context

• Author: John J. Mearsheimer

• Position: R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago

• Publication: September/October 2014 issue of Foreign Affairs

• Main Argument: The Ukraine crisis is largely the fault of the West, particularly due to NATO enlargement and other Western policies.

Overview of the Crisis

• Predominant Narrative in the West: The crisis in Ukraine is blamed on Russian aggression, specifically the actions of President Vladimir Putin.

• Counter Argument: Mearsheimer argues that the U.S. and Europe share most of the responsibility for the crisis through their strategic moves against Russia (e.g., NATO's eastward expansion).

Key Points

NATO Expansion

• Historical Context:

  • Russian leaders have opposed NATO enlargement since the mid-1990s.

  • The first wave of NATO enlargement occurred in 1999, which included the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland.

  • A second round in 2004 included Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia, leading to complaints from Russia.

• Reactions from Russia:

  • Concerns from Russian President Boris Yeltsin about NATO's proximity to Russian borders.

  • Putin perceived NATO’s plans for Ukraine as a significant threat.

U.S. Policy and Support for Democracy in Ukraine

• Financial Investments:

  • Over $5 billion spent by the U.S. since 1991 to support Ukraine's democratic aspirations.

  • Funded organizations like the National Endowment for Democracy aimed at promoting civil society.

• Impact of Yanukovych's Ouster:

  • Yanukovych’s decision to accept Russian aid over EU integration sparked mass protests leading to his eventual departure, supported by U.S. involvement.

The Spark Leading to Crisis

• November 2013 Turning Point:

  • Yanukovych rejected an EU deal, which triggered large protests, escalating to violence and the eventual ousting of Yanukovych in February 2014.

  • The new government in Ukraine was heavily pro-Western, which Russia viewed as a direct threat.

Putin's Reaction and Actions

• Timeline of Events:

  • Post-Yanukovych ouster, Putin ordered the annexation of Crimea, leveraging its strategic importance and the presence of ethnic Russians in the region.

• Strategies Employed by Russia:

  • Support for Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine, considerable military movements along the border, increased gas prices, and economic pressure on Ukraine.

Misunderstandings in Western Policy

• Western Elites' Perception:

  • Over-reliance on liberal principles such as rule of law and democracy, while neglecting realist considerations in international relations.

• Failure to Appreciate Geopolitics:

  • U.S. and European leaders underestimated Russia's security concerns and failed to recognize the realpolitik nature of the conflict.

Recommended Changes in Western Policy

Towards a Neutral Ukraine

• Proposal for Policy Shift:

  • The U.S. should aim for a neutral Ukraine, not one solidly aligned with the West, similar to Austria's Cold War position.

• Economic Cooperation:

  • Joint initiatives involving the EU, U.S., and Russia should promote Ukrainian stability without further alienating Russia.

Signs of Resolution

• Conclusion and Recommendations:

  • Acknowledging Ukraine's significance to Russia, the West must refrain from further NATO expansion.

  • Encourage Ukraine to respect its multi-ethnic identity and language rights while fostering a cooperative international stance that does not provoke Russian sensitivities.

Final Thoughts

• Consequences of Continuing Current Policies:

  • Persisting with anti-Russian policies risks further hostilities and economic hardships for Ukraine.

  • The U.S. faces a strategic choice: maintain current adversarial policies or pursue a path toward peaceful coexistence and a neutral Ukraine.