Stone and Wilcox, Adshade, Cohen

Stone and Wilcox 2020 - Empty Cradles Mean a Bleaker Future

• Fertility fell in the US after the Great Recession
• in 2020, the TFR fell below 1.7 → exceptionally low fertility rate
• COVID-19 fertility fallout
• The lost births will be felt among Hispanic, Native American, Black and working-class white women → most vulnerable
• A rising share of American men and women will be childless
• Declining fertility is not just a tempo effect (lost births now will be made up later)
• Women’s transition into parenthood is delayed
• The fertility level is going well below replacement-level
• Consequences of declining fertility:
    * Economy
      * Slower growth
      * Loss of economic dynamism
      * Rising inequality
    * Public programs
      * Underfunded pensions
      * Overburdened health systems
      * Collapsing local governments
    * National security
      * Fewer potential soldiers
• Real tragedy: what it means for the men and women who will not have the kids they hoped to have
    * Women are more likely to report they didn’t have as many children as they wished to have
    * Average number of women desiring children is rising to more than 2 children
• Women’s concern: economic + social difficulties associated with parenthood
    * Financial costs
    * Time demands of parenting
    * State of the economy
• Most of the decline in birthrates has been among younger, less-educated, minority, and unmarried women
• Family life: is becoming an upper-middle-class luxury good
• Bare branches: term for men (or women) without kin
• More older people are living without a spouse
    * Aging + dying alone, unvisited and uncared for
    * Ex: pandemic → extreme isolation
• Covid
    * Delayed childbearing
    * Some women: want a greater total number of children (don’t want to die alone)
• Having children: now makes people happier if it doesn’t bring financial distress
• We need to help families achieve their desired size
• Solutions:
    * Provide reasonable financial support to families
    * Remove obstacles to marriage
    * Create a more family-friendly society

Adshade 2020 - Falling Birthrates Are No Big Deal

• Delayed parenthood
• Importance of age impact on birth rates
• Low fertility rates are not bad for economic growth and they don’t lead to high levels of government debt
• In the US, technology is driving the growth, not population growth
• Decline in teen birthrates
    * Teen Pregnancy Prevention Program - 2010
    * Causes the TFR to underestimate the future number of births
• Completed fertility: the number of children women have had by their early 40s
    * It is increasing
• Men delay even more childbearing
    * Overestimate how easy it will be to have children when they are older
    * Underestimate how effective medical interventions are at overcoming the relevant problems

→ Because of that, they will probably never have children

Cohen 2013 A - Declining Fertility Is Not the Root of America’s Problem

• We should focus on making things work with fewer children, which would improve the lives of children
• The scary drop in TFR is due to the recession and it’s bottoming out
• US: has the highest fertility rate among major rich countries
• Getting populations to have more children doesn’t work
• Birth rates do not primarily respond to government policies (except in draconian cases)
• Fertility: is mostly about economics and culture
• Today, people have fewer children in China because they have become too expensive

Cohen 2013 B - Let’s Not Panic Over Women With More Education Having Fewer Kids

• Women with more education: have fewer children
• We must figure out how to raise and support fewer children to be happy and productive
• Fewer children = higher status (and vice-versa)
    * Individual level + societal level
• Countries with lower fertility have less gender inequality
• There is a lot that can be done about gender inequality once fertility rates are reduced
• Fertility rates of more educated women are rising