SCM 300 Module 2
Lead Time vs. Lot Size
- Lead Time: Time between a customer placing an order and receiving it.
- Lot Size (Order Size, Q): Quantity ordered in a single purchase.
- Interplay: Long lead times often push firms toward larger lot sizes to avoid stock-outs; large lots raise holding cost and risk.
Inventory: Basics & Considerations
- Definition: Stock of any item/resource used in an organization—includes goods for sale and items required for daily operations.
- Types of Inventory
- Raw Materials / Components
- Work-in-Process (WIP)
- Finished Goods
- Spare or Replacement Parts
- Capital Equipment & MRO (Maintenance, Repair & Operations)
- Key Issues to Consider
- Storage: space, temperature, energy, handling, lease/buy decisions, cost.
- Transport: vehicles, insulation/heating, fuel, labor, packaging, cost.
- Shrinkage: pilferage, security, losses, damage, obsolescence.
- Money: cash tied up, financing, taxes, insurance.
- Legal: licenses, certifications, regulatory limits.
- Other limits: quotas, space, security, cash flow.
Inventory Risk vs. Need
- Balance between having enough inventory to satisfy demand and mitigating risks (loss, cost, obsolescence).
Supply-Chain Risk & Insurance Strategies
- Risks: loss, damage, theft, machine breakdowns, transportation accidents, labor issues, demand fluctuation, market shifts, environmental/political events, epidemics, crime, technology changes.
- Insurance Mindset
- BUY IT risks: theft, late shipment, poor quality.
- MAKE IT risks: labor shortage, machinery failure, demand spikes.
- MOVE IT risks: logistics, distance, transit theft.
- SELL IT risks: retail shrink, high demand, damage.
- SERVICE IT risks: defects, warranty repairs.
Market Needs & Inventory Strategies
- Customers expect rapid fulfillment—inventory enables quick response.
- Cost management via: economies of scale, quantity discounts, manufacturing efficiencies.
Types of Inventory
- Long-Term Inventory
- Seasonal Inventory
- Perishable Inventory
- Safety Stock
- Cushion to protect against uncertainty in demand, lead time, or supply.
- Not intended for regular consumption—acts as insurance.
- Anticipation Inventory
- Built to absorb predictable, uneven demand (seasonality, holidays) or capitalize on quantity discounts.
- Pipeline Inventory
- Orders already placed but not yet received/paid for; “inventory on its way.”
- Formula: ext{Pipeline} = dL where d = periodic demand, L = lead time (same units).
- Example: 5 units/day flowing through a 3-day pipeline ⇒ 5 \times 3 = 15 per SKU; six SKUs ⇒ 90 total units.
Demand Forecasting
Qualitative Methods
- Solicit opinions from executives, experts, sales force, consumers.
- Useful when data are irrelevant, lacking, or for new products/markets.
- Wisdom of crowds: group may outperform individual expert under right conditions.
Quantitative Methods
- Value: objectivity and repeatability; Limits: quality of data, assumption of continuity.
- Causal (e.g., linear regression) vs. Time-Series (averages, trends, seasonality).
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
- Forecast = average of demand over the last n periods.
- Best for fairly stable demand.
Example: 4-period SMA for Week 13 → (25{,}396 + 26{,}256 + 29{,}365 + 28{,}227)/4 = 27{,}311 units.
Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
- Recent periods receive higher weights; \sum w_i = 1.
- 3-period WMA Example for Period 13 (weights 0.2, 0.3, 0.5):
26{,}260(0.2) + 28{,}230(0.3) + 31{,}360(0.5) = 29{,}401 units. - 4-period WMA Example for Period 10 (weights 0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4):
26{,}269(0.1)+26{,}452(0.2)+26{,}804(0.3)+25{,}396(0.4)=26{,}116.9 units.
Cost of Inventory
- Purchase Cost (Item Cost) DC
- Holding/Carrying Cost: warehouse rent, security, depreciation, obsolescence, handling, insurance, opportunity cost.
- Ordering Cost: salaries, e-procurement, delivery fees, negotiation, legal analysis.
- Stock-out (Customer Service) Cost: backorders, lost sales, penalties, customer ill-will.
High Inventory Levels
- Pros: quantity discounts, fewer stock-outs, fewer orders (lower S), transportation economies.
- Cons: higher holding cost, handling cost, shrinkage/obsolescence, tied-up capital.
Average Inventory
- For constant lot size Q under basic EOQ model: \text{Avg Inv} = Q/2.
Total Cost of Inventory & Economic Order Quantity (EOQ)
Total Annual Cost Formula
TC = DC + \frac{Q}{2}H + \frac{D}{Q}S
- D = annual demand.
- C = unit cost.
- H = holding cost per unit per year.
- S = cost to place a single order.
EOQ Derivation
- Optimal Q occurs when Annual Holding Cost = Annual Ordering Cost:
\frac{Q}{2}H = \frac{D}{Q}S
Q = EOQ = \sqrt{\frac{2DS}{H}} - Guarantees lowest TC given constant D,C,H,S and no quantity discounts.
Practice Problem
- Given: D = 15{,}000 units, C = \$10, H = 0.30C = \$3, S = \$125.
- EOQ:
Q = \sqrt{\frac{2(15{,}000)(125)}{3}} \approx 1{,}118 units. - Total Cost @ EOQ:
TC = 150{,}000 + \frac{1{,}118}{2}(3) + \frac{15{,}000}{1{,}118}(125)
= 150{,}000 + 1{,}677 + 1{,}678 \approx \$153{,}355. - Time Between Orders (weeks):
TBO = \left( \frac{Q}{D} \right) 52 = \left( \frac{1{,}118}{15{,}000} \right) 52 \approx 3.88\text{ weeks}.
EOQ Inputs & Limitations
- Exact lot size/timing may be infeasible; storage space limits; ignores quantity discounts; assumes constant demand & lead time.
Purchasing Process
- Requisition (Material Requisition) – internal communication of need.
- Supplier Selection (Request for Quotation) – assess availability, current/new suppliers.
- Place Order (Purchase Order) – may involve analysis, negotiation, contracts, reorder systems.
- Track Order – monitor delivery status, coordinate space.
- Receive Order – inspect, record, shelve.
- Cost categories: mostly Ordering Cost; some Quality & Handling costs.
Make-or-Buy Decision
- Make when proprietary tech, no competent supplier, better quality control, idle capacity, need tighter control.
- Buy when insufficient capacity, lack of expertise, outside supplier superior in cost/quality.
Centralized vs. Decentralized Purchasing
- Centralized: volume leverage, avoid duplication, specialization, consolidated shipping, common supplier base.
- Decentralized: better local knowledge, local sourcing relationships, shorter lead times, greater flexibility, less bureaucracy.
- Hybrid: certain categories centralized, others decentralized.
Choosing a Supplier
- Start with stakeholder (end-user) needs: cost, quality, speed, flexibility.
- Plant/warehouse location vs. transportation cost, lead time, inventory needs, shrinkage risk.
- Technology: tracking, data accuracy, systems compatibility.
- Commitment to continuous product & service improvement, R&D investment.
- Ability to scale with growth; evaluation of 2nd/3rd-tier supplier quality.
Supplier Management Tools
Supplier Certification Programs
- Demonstrate commitment to quality/performance; narrow approved supplier pool; rely on international (ISO) or in-house standards; require ongoing recertification.
Supplier Scorecards
- Quantify and communicate performance expectations; enable data-driven discussions; foster supplier development.
Supplier-Partnering Hierarchy (Liker & Choi, HBR 2004)
- Understand how suppliers work – on-site visits, respect capabilities.
- Turn supplier rivalry into opportunity – dual sourcing, compatible philosophies.
- Supervise suppliers – monthly scorecards, immediate feedback, senior management involvement.
- Develop suppliers’ technical capabilities – build problem-solving skills, common lexicon.
- Share information intensively but selectively – structured meetings, accurate data.
- Conduct joint improvement activities – exchange best practices, study groups.
- Goal: deeper relationships enabling co-prosperity, innovation, risk reduction.