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Causation v. Correlation
Causation: measuring the effect of one variable on another
Correlation: measuring two variables that both tend to change together
not enough information to discover is one affects the other or if it’s a confounding variable
positive correlation: both increase/decrease together
negative correlation: one increases as the other decreases
Empirical statements v. Normative statements
Empirical statements: factual claims based on evidence—no bias
Normative statements: claims with judgement/bias in addition to factual evidence
Definition
Sovereign political organizations that can exercise control over a permanent population with international recognition
Sovereignty
Ability to exercise control in a defined area
legal authority, legislative authority, protect from external threat
Get political power through legitimacy from citizens of the state
Have institutions
Strong v. Weak States
Strong States
state has the ability to enact a policy and see through its execution and enforcement
the capacity of the state
ex: UK
Weak state
does not have the capacity to carry something out
ex: Nigeria
Failed states
cannot provide basic law and order to their people
criminals not afraid of repercussions by the state
ex: Haiti
Autonomy
ability to enact and carry out policy without the support of the public
high autonomy- state can doesn’t need the people’s support
ex: China
low autonomy- state needs the people’s support
ex:UK
Legitimacy
the people accept the right of the state to rule over them
Traditional Legitimacy
acquired because of old traditions
maintained largely due to consistency and predictability
history and religion based
families often came into power because they’d been chosen by God
ex: Tsarist Russia and Dynastic China
Charismatic Legitimacy
cults of personality
single individual captures loyalty and attention of the people
individual leader is now the basis of the legitimacy of the state
often forms after a revolution → someone becomes the hero of the people → gains power
ex: Stalin, Mao
Rational-Legal Legitimacy
leaders exercise power under the terms of political rules (usually a Constitution)
disliked leaders will still have power as long as they are serving a term
ex: UK, US
Institutions
Formal
based on official rules that are relatively clear
ex: Army, US House of Representatives, Courts, IRS
Informal
have unwritten and unofficial rules
bring people together
not automatically less powerful
ex: MLB, NFL
Linkage
connect people to policy making
ex: civil society groups, political parties, interest groups, the media
Nation
people with a commonality such as race, language, religion
desire self-government (or want to maintain it)
Nation-State
states sometimes have a strong sense of national identity created through shared language, culture, ethnicity, etc
ex: China (Han Chinese)
national disunity does not equal instability
ex: UK (England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland)
Multinational States
states made of multiple nations
ex: Nigeria
Nationalism
pride in one’s people and belief they can achieve their political destiny
Stateless Nations
nations poorly integrated into political system of state they are in
desire to separate and form their own nation-state is not yet realized
ex: Uighurs in China, Chechen people in caucasus region in Russia
Regime
Rules and systems under which the political process takes place
Determine how individuals and groups acquire and exercise political power
Some have written law— Constitution
Regime changes can happen through:
Reform
gradual changes to the political rules that do not fundamentally alter political system
Revolution
sudden and radical change in the structures and systems → completely transforms political regime
Coup D’États
military of the state acts internally
displaces whoever is currently in power and seizes it for itself
Government
the individuals currently exercising political power from official positions of authority
new president coming into power → change in government
Unitary States
concentrate basically all power at the central/national level
regional governments may have some power, but like not really
ex: China, Iran, UK
Devolution
central government willingly cedes certain key powers to lower governments
not built into constitution, could theoretically be taken back
ex: UK
Federal State
Constitution divides powers amongst federal and regional governments
clarifies what powers apply to what levels
regional governments permanently established → cannot be taken away easily
ex: Mexico, Nigeria, US
Supranational Organizations
governing bodies that allow many sovereign states to send representatives to make collective decision for the group
ex: EU, NATO, UN, WTO
limits sovereignty of member states
Ethnicity
attributes identified by a group of people that make them distinct
can include cultural heritage, ancestry, history, language, homeland, religion, ideology, etc
Citizenship
formal relationship between state and individual
comes with specific rights/privileges granted by the state
similar to nationality and ethnicity but different since citizenship is purely political
basis of patriotism— which is pride in the state
Cleavages
basis for political conflict
divide groups in society against one another because of conflicting political goals
Exs: owner v. worker, church v. state, urban v. rural, land v. industry
Cross-Cutting Cleavages
two cleavages do not align with each other in a way that reinforces the divide between the two sides
people are part of multiple cleavages → promotes stability because people are in too small of sections to make change → politics still function civilly
ex: workers being from urban and rural environments
Coinciding Cleavages
deeply divide a society to the point where it can no longer remain stable and unified
whichever side holds the majority shapes policy agenda → other side consistently losing → threatens idea of revolution
Ex: all the workers being in urban environments while all the owners live in rural areas
Centrifugal Forces
forces that divide and polarize people in a state
Ex: religion, ethnicity, language
Centripetal Forces
brings people of a state together
increases legitimacy and stability
Ex: religion, ethnicity, language
Political Ideology
person’s preference for the goals of politics
Liberalism
economic and personal freedom & central goals of a political system
want freedom to pursue own (economic) interests
individuals should have basic rights and a relative equality of opportunity, but not economic equality
Communism
true freedom comes in the form of economic equality
want to abolish social and economic inequality through strict state control of all economic activity (or no state at all)
total equality by sharing everything
Fascism
Reject all notions of equality and freedom
Unwavering loyalty to the state → empowering it means reaching full strength and potential
Individualism
values individual rights and liberties over government restrictions
limited government
means to protect individual rights
emphasis on initiative and responsibility
Populism
supports interests of the common people over the elites
often decreases political stability while increasing tensions
Political Culture
basic norms for political activity in a country
each country has it’s own political culture
Political Efficacy
belief that one’s actions can influence political processes
Political Socialization
the process by which people acquire political beliefs and values
Ex: family, media
Coup D’États v. Revolutions
Coups: small group of organized people (usually military)
Revolutions: large group of largely uncoordinated people (the masses)
Plurality v. Majority
Plurality
the candidate has more votes than the other(s)
Majority
the candidate has over half of the votes
Referendum
general vote by the general public on a topic
direct decision
Single Member District
aka first-past-the-post
give seats only to the candidate with the most votes
vote for the individual not the party
always results in a 2 party system
smaller parties gain nothing
gerrymandering is a huge issue
doesn’t represent people well
if the votes are split amongst many candidates, a leader with only 20% (for ex.) of the total votes can win (only 1/5 actually wanted him)
Proportional Representation
percentage of votes → amount of seats
vote for the party not the individual
open: people pick
closed: party picks
multi-party system
more diversity
people actually vote for who they want because it still matters
coalitions tend to form
alliances
smaller parties align → have more power than party with most seats
Mixed System
mix of both
power is in the people!
Presidential System
voters cast direct vote for candidate to serve as president
not done through legislative
separation of powers— executive separate from legislative
divided government
not uncommon for legislative branch to be majority a different party than the executive branch
much harder for things to pass and change to be created
leaves at end of term limit(s), or impeached
Parliamentary System
leader is chosen form majority party
party chosen through election
often titled prime minister
do not have separation of powers, extremely intertwined
removed through a vote of no confidence
majority vote in parliament is to gain a new PM
no term limit, but vote of confidence should be called after an extended period of time
Semi-Presidential System
combines elements of parliamentary system and presidential system
elected president as head of state and prime minister responsible for day-to-day
Head of State
Figure head for the country
Ex: Welcoming important foreign people
can be the same person as head of government
Ex: Royal Family in England
Head of Government
responsible for day-to-day administration of the policies of the state
presidential systems more likely to unite these roles, parliamentary systems more likely not to
Civil Society
non-governmental organizations and institutions that manifest the will of the people
people join organizations to give their input and express interests
Pluralism
large, healthy, freely organized civil society where policymaking authorities are influenced by civil society organizations
organizations are in free competition with each other
Corporatism
state controlled civil society
state dictates which groups are allowed to provide their input
Rule OF Law
all people bound to the same laws
democratic
Rule BY Law
law is malleable
authoritarian
Liberal Democracies
hold free, fair, and competitive elections
Illiberal Democracies
not actually a democracy!!!
hold elections that are not free, fair, and competitive
solely there to increase legitimacy
Kinds of Democracies (check over these)
Consolidated
political system where democratic institutions and practices are well-established, stable, and widely accepted by citizens over an extended period of time
Traditional
equality in voting
effective participation
enlightened understanding
citizen control of agenda
inclusion
Modern
set of values that comes along with industrialization
such as rationalism, materialism, technology, etc
Post-Modern
set of values that emphasizes quality of life over concern for material gain
Procedural
meet minimum requirements of democracy
have free and fair elections for real policymakers
Substantive
citizens have access to multiple sources of information
strong civil society
Common Traits of Democracy
level of rule of law
fairness of elections
transparency of the state’s internal decision making-processes
Interest Groups
organizations that advocate for specific policy interests or social causes
Definition
non-democratic rule
invest political authority into a small group of individuals
authority is exercised without any constitutional responsibility to the public
people do not have a viable constitutional mechanism to remove one government and replace it with another
different from totalitarianism
Common Traits
economic factors
income inequality
very small/no middle class
social factors
political culture
statism— authoritarianism was essential to survive → controlling nature is expected
tendency to trust in the state for security and provision of basic needs
Russia!
religious factors
Catholicism and Islam establish formal religious hierarchies → levels of authority don’t change → slower to develop, modernize, and democratize
Means of Control
Coercion
forcefully compel people to submit
Media Control
censors content citizens see
Restrictions on Civil Society
require groups to register with state monitoring agencies
blocking groups from officially registering
censorship of a group’s messaging
banning NGOs
non-governmental organizations
arresting organizers/participants of protest demonstrations
still around to increase legitimacy
Political Opposition
most authoritarian regimes stage elections → have to make sure no one else wins
arrests opposition leaders and candidates for crimes
Alexei Navalny- embezzlement
disqualifying candidate or party for technical reasons
miscounting votes
restricting candidates media access
can’t get their message out
Cooptation
bring groups/individuals into a beneficial relationship with the state → do not challenge legitimacy of the regime
Corporatism
interest groups organize into one body → negotiate and represents them with the state
organization has a special relationship with the state → TECHNICALLY civil society
form of cooptation
seen in all course countries
Patron-Clientelism
rulers place people into key positions of power → that power is abused for personal gain
those individuals are entrusted to put people in positions of power below them and continue the cycle
result— large hierarchal pyramid of loyalty and favor-trading → very hard to challenge the power of the state
another form of cooptation
Corruption
power v. authority
power— ability to get people to do things they otherwise would not do
authority— having an official position with a defined role given by the state
corruption is the abuse of a position of authority for personal gain
Types of Authoritarian Regimes
Totalitarianism
also called a personality cult
leader is portrayed as a (near) perfect version of the nation’s aspirations
leader becomes unifying symbol of the pride and patriotism of the people → legitimacy
ex: Mao, Stalin
Military Rule
result of a coup d’état
military is in charge of policy-making
ex: Nigeria (not present)
One-Party State
only one political party is able to compete for and exercise political power
sometimes the restriction is the law, sometimes corruption ensures it
China— CCP are the only ones allowed to be in charge
Mexico— result of major patron-client network
Illiberal Democracy
regimes with elections but lack other features of liberal democracy
elections are often rigged, only occur to increase legitmacy
ex: Russia
Theocracy
rule by God
positions of power held by religious leaders
ex: Iran
Neoliberalism
process of economically liberalizing a country by reducing government intervention
increases competitiveness → encourages economic development
Privatization
putting ownership into non-governmental organizations and people
state owned → public
nationalization is the opposite
Austerity
cutting public spending and reliance on government → balances budget and reduces debt
harmful to public well-being
gets rid of many social welfare programs
Protectionism
opposite of economic liberalization
government creates trade barriers → boosts domestic industry
isolates economy
Tariffs
taxes on imported goods
helps producers not consumers
Quotas
limits quantity of imported goods allowed
Subsidies
money given by the government
tariffs, quotas, and subsidies make domestic goods more attractive to consumers → nationalization brings back control of industries
Economic Development
Import Substitution Industrialization
protectionist process
want to economically develop your own country without relying on foreign imports and assistance → can compete with foreign countries
increase tariffs, encourage domestic production and self-sufficiency
Structural Adjustment Programs
neoliberal programs designed to help countries become more attractive to investors
privatizing businesses, removing tariffs, reducing government expenditures
increases economic growth but can increase poverty and limit access to services
Foreign Direct Investment
investments from foreign countries
brings in money but can lead to debt & erosion of state sovereignty
Economic Measures
GDP
measures economic growth
total market value of all goods + services produced
doesn’t account for how people are doing
quality of life, debt, worth of money
GDP Per Capita
GDP divided by number of people
doesn’t account for inequality
Gini Index
coefficient that measures economic inequality in a society
scale of 0-1, usually expressed as a percentage
0 is good, 1 is bad
0 is perfect equality
only measures distribution of wealth, not the average
HDI
measures basic standard of living
0-1
0 is bad, 1 is good
1 is highest possible human development
doesn’t measure inequalities, only average development
Developed Countries
Developed
industrialized/post-industrial
service economy
higher incomes
ex: UK
Developing
somewhat industrialized
manufacturing economy
middle incomes
ex: Mexico
Least-Developed
very little industrialization
agriculture economies
low income
ex: Somalia
IMF, World Bank, WTO
International Monetary Fund
provides loans
helps countries develop policy programs
World Bank
helps with long-term economic development
helps reduce poverty
World Trade Organization
manages rules of trade between nations
Globalization
increasing connection between people, cultures, economies, and nation-states
result of technology, trade, cultural diffusion, etc
lifted countries out of poverty
creates competition
creates multinational corporations
Supranational Organizations
organizations that go above nations
nations give up some sovereignty
people don’t always like decisions and how it affects their countries
lack of control
ex: UN, EU, WHO, NATO, etc
Resource Curse
countries with an abundance of one resource experience slow economic growth
focus all their energy/money on one industry, neglect all else
focusing on export of one resource (ex:oil) → less economic diversification, political instability, corruption
can be lifted out through diversifying economy, strong institutions, investments in other sectors
ex: Venezuela
Liberalization
economic liberalization happens through:
privatization of companies
free trade
deregulation on businesses
elimination of government subsidies
lower taxes
lower quotas
get rid of welfare programs
Mao v. Deng Xiaoping v. Xi Jinping
CCP’s Priorities During Mao
loyalty over all else
communism
CCP’s Priorities During Deng Xiaoping
functioning economy
skill over anything else
“No matter if it is a white cat or a black cat; as long as it can catch mice, it is a good cat.”
cleaned up mess Mao left
experimentation
CCP’s Priorities During Xi Jinping
loyalty (cult of personality)
anti-corruption campaign
State
China is a one-party and unitary state
all power is concentrated in the CCP
has a state-capitalist economy
Government in charge of economy— nationalized organizations and industries
Head of State
Xi Jinping in charge of like everything
he’s general secretary of CCP, chairman of central military commission, and president (represents China globally)
technically elected by NPC, but nominated by CCP (him winning was a given)
Ethnic Minorities
CCP recognizes ethnic minorities → allows them autonomy in respective regions
CCP tolerates languages and religions
did not have to follow one-child policy
China still very much in charge
China wants to increase control in largest ethnic regions
Xinjiang, Tibet, Taiwan
installed own candidate for Dalai Lama in Tibet
claims Taiwan is part of China
Violent relationship with Uighurs
reeducation camps
persecution
55 officially recognized
supposedly represented in NPC and local levels
not a lot of representation
Century of Humiliation
China lost international dignity and territory for roughly a century → want avenge/prove themselves to the world
China’s Political Culture
Confucian vales
strong sense of hierarchy and societal roles
ethnocentrism and isolationism
ethnocentrism— evaluating other cultures according to standards of their own
toleration of strong leaders
self-censorship
acceptance of guanxi
not exciting elections
CCP Membership
extremely important for moving up in business careers
extremely serious process
2-3 year process
applications, interviews, connections
must make sure you are in line with how the party works
source of great pride— part of the elite (feels like it)
Women’s Roles
very little say
most focused on caretaking and domestic duties
very little women in workforce and government
Xi is against feminism
Guanxi
extreme networking
good connections and reputation is essential to move up
draw on connections to secure favors in personal relations
can get away with a lot
Cleavages (urban & rural)
Hukou System
restrict’s rural resident’s ability to access same services as urban residents
rights defined by where you live
hard to change residency
result— migrant workers with temporary Hukous → not a lot of access → inequality between rural and urban citizens
One-Child Policy
long term effects
huge imbalance of population
35 million more boys than girls
having one child is the norm → not helping to fix the population
government implementing new incentives for women to have more children
Media Control
CCP monitors everything on the internet
increase in censorship under Xi
theoretically free speech but anything that exposes state secrets and endangers country can be censored— very vague definition
level of censorship dependent on attention attracted
Civil Society
allowed but only to a certain extent
government controls access to policy making through relationships with State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)
corporatist
mass protesting not allowed— especially after Tiananmen Square
Deng Xiaoping & The Economy
focused on gradual economic reform
didn’t care about the system as long as it worked
got rid of communes (private farming)
encouraged supply & demand economy
created special economic zones
areas subject to different economic regulations
affect FDIs
Government & Party
CCP controls the state, economy— literally everything
government and CCP are parallel organizations
government has authority, but CCP influences everything they do
National People’s Congress
“most powerful institution”
NOT TRUE
in charge of legislature, elections, decision making
CCP has actual power
Premier
head of NPC
comes from the standing committee
oversees state council
approved by NPC
Standing Committee
directly under Xi
7 members
responsible for making key decisions
Politburo
under standing committee
25 members
including 7 on standing committee
top government and military officials, regional chiefs, head of important party organizations
People’s Liberation Army
controlled by Central Military Commission— controlled by Xi
General Secretary of CCP
highest role in CCP
oversees literally everything
approves all decision making
Judiciary
not independent of free
listens to CCP
rule by law
citizens need to prove their innocence— often through guanxi
Diagrams
Asymmetric Federalism
power is split up unequally
different ethnic minorities have different amounts of power
central government still has most power
Mongol Invasion
cut Russia off from Western Development
Tsarist Russia
absolutist and autocratic while rest of world experiencing Enlightenment
political culture is used to strong leaders and authoritarian rule
Political Culture
statism
used to strong role of state in society
rely on state for stability and order— especially after USSR and shock therapy
distrust of politicians
think they are corrupt
mistrust and suspicion of western ideals (democracy and individualism)
corruption deeply embedded
Politics & Economy under Communism
Politically
democratic centralist government
small, elite leadership had all the power
Economy
command economy
government owns all resources and makes all economic decisions
quotas to run production of goods
not stable or fair
low quality goods
Gorbachev: Glasnost, Perestroika, Democratization
led to end of USSR
Glasnost
political openness
more free speech
loosening control and power
Perestroika
slow privatization (economy)
failed terribly
Democratization
limited democracy through elected congress
they elect president
slowly becoming more democratic
1993 Constitution
referendum
created 3 branches of government after USSR collapse
Yeltsin
Shock Therapy
abrupt switch from command economy to free-market economy
huge increase in inflation
nobody knew how to do anything
economy STRUGGLED
Yeltsin was a mess— always drunk
Oligarchs
very rich business leaders with lots of political influence
rose to power through connections, taking over former state-owned properties, controlling big industries (ex: oil)
Putin has neutralized power of the oligarchs
ones that won’t align with Putin— exiled, charged with embezzlement, or killed
took all the power for himself
Putin’s Rise to Power
former KGB
rose through ranks by being lucky & Yeltsin needed someone loyal
selected by oligarchs because loyal and competent
supposedly orchestrated terrorist attack → could come in and fix the mess → increased his support
Putin’s Terms
2000-2004
stability
2004-2008
economic growth
2012-2016
growing international power
Putin’s 7 Reforms
creation of federal super districts → more centralized government (lowers local powers)
president appoints governors
power to remove governors (who aren’t following Putin)
power to appoint governors
overturned in 2012
federation council reform— governors Putin appointed choose members in legislative branch
managing elections
qualified opponents often disqualified or shot
hard to get on ballot if not part of Duma
Duma election reform
elections changed to PR & raised threshold
easier for United Russia to get representation
extended presidential terms from 4 to 6 years
Chechnya
Muslim ethnic group
semi-autonomous region within Russia → series of terrorism and separatism
Chechen Wars
first about Chechen independence
second was Islamist cause
Putin created 7 super districts with governors appointed by him → maintained control over minorities
Religion
majority Russian Orthodox
increasingly close relationship between church and state
form of legitimacy for Putin— if church approves of him he must be good → nationalism
conservative values in contrast to western values
Civil Society
historically weak civil society
low political efficacy
Putin restricts media heavily
Youth groups exist but in Putin’s interests and funded by Kremlin
corporatist
Nashi
conservative views, nationalist, supposedly anti-fascist
groups are frequent targets of harassment and arrests
NGOs
have to be approved— many are denied
very little foreign funding
can be shut down at any time
Illiberal Democracy (?)
competitive authoritarian regime
rigged elections
elites support Putin → managed democracy
Political Parties
United Russia
catch-all party
no real policy platform
created by political elites to support them
party to support Putin
usually win since Russia is a dominant party system
allow other parties but rig it so they win
Communist Party of Russian Federation
created after Yeltsin banned communist party
holds no real threat to Putin → easy to get name on ballot
Liberal Democratic Party
extremely conservative and right
poses no threat to Putin → easy to get name on ballot
Alexei Navalny
Russian opposition leader
huge threat to Putin
worked to uncover corruption of Putin and the government
hero to the people, extremist threat to government → arrested for embezzlement → poisoned → imprisoned → died in prison
Media Control
Pravda
soviet state-run newspaper
subscription required
everything state controlled
began during Yeltsin → increased during Putin
freedom of press supposedly exists but journalism criticizing Putin is punished
President
issue decrees without Duma approval
suspend local laws
nominate judges
issue pardons and reprieves
determines foreign affairs
negotiates treaties
dissolve Duma
oversees bureaucracy
appoints PM and governors
Prime Minister
appointed by president and approved by Duma
head of government
represents president’s policies and carries them out
currently Mikhail Mishustin
Legislative Branch
Upper house
Federation Council
approves budget legislation, treaties, and judicial nominees
people are appointed
Lower house
Duma
passes legislation, confirms PM
people are elected
can theoretically impeach the president, but he can dissolve the Duma
Judiciary
Constitutional Court
members appointed by president
exercises judicial review
doesn’t actually do this
rule by law
Supreme Court
highest level of civil and criminal cases
judicial review not allowed
2011-2012 Protests
inspired by Arab Spring
called for more government accountability
Russians protested against election results
claimed they were fraudulent
kind of were
huge amounts of protests → scared Putin
reforms!
direct election of governors
reduction in required signatures to register a political party
Demographic Trends
bad levels of alcoholism and HIV/AIDS → increase in death rates
increase in emigration out of Russia
especially after 2011/2012 protests