Demographic Transition, Aging Population and Economic Growth_Display 2024
Page 1: Introduction to Asia-Pacific Economies
Course: ECON3320
Topics Covered: Demographic Transition, Aging Population, Economic Growth
Page 2: Reference for Demographic Transition
Study Reference:
Bloom, David E., and Jeffrey G. Williamson.
Title: "Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia."
Journal: The World Bank Economic Review 12.3 (1998): 419-455.
Page 3: Overview of Demographic Transition
Focus: The concept of demographic transition in relation to economic growth.
Page 4: Definition of Demographic Transition
Concept: Transition from high fertility and mortality rates (preindustrial) to low fertility and mortality rates (postindustrial).
Population Growth: Accompanied by changes in population growth and age structure.
Page 5: Crude Birth Rate Trends
East Asia vs. Southeast/South Asia: Crude birth rate declined more rapidly in East Asia.
Timing of Fertility Decline:
Countries like Korea, Malaysia, and Singapore saw fertility decline about 15 years after child mortality drop.
Thailand experienced a delay of around 25 years.
Page 6: Working-Age Population Ratio
Working-Age Population Increases:
Ratio of working-age population (15-64) to non-working-age population has been rising in Asia since 1970.
Notably high increase in East Asia from 1975 to 1990.
Page 7: Demographic Overview of Asia
Regions Covered:
Eastern Asia, Southern Asia, Central Asia, Western Asia, South-Eastern Asia.
Countries Included: China, Japan, India, Indonesia, etc.
Page 8: Phases of Demographic Transition
Phase One (1950s-1960s): Significant increase in the number of children.
Page 9: Phase Two of Transition
Phase Two (1970s): Rise in working-age population outpacing young population growth in several countries.
Page 10: Future Projections
Aging Population: Projections indicate that individuals aged 60 and older will dominate changes in the age structure in 34 countries.
Page 11: Demographic Transition Impact on Economic Growth
Economic Dynamics:
Early stages: High youth dependency burdens and low working-age proportion hinder per capita income growth.
Later stages: Decreased youth dependency and increased working-age share boost income growth.
The shift from fewer workers to a higher share of working-age adults can lead to economic enhancement, followed by potential challenges from aging populations.
Page 12: Economic Growth Implications
Initial Burden & Gift: Few workers can evolve into a gift when the working-age population increases, though this advantage may fade as the elderly share grows.
Page 13: Statistical Overview of 78 Economies
Data Source: World Bank data on various demographic and economic variables from 1965-1990.
Key Variables & Statistics:
Population growth rate, economic activity growth rates, demographic age group growth rates, GDP per capita statistics.
Page 14: Appendix—Economies in Data Set
Included Countries: List of economies analyzed for demographic impact, including countries from Africa, Asia, the Americas, and Europe.
Page 15: Table of Population Growth Impact
Growth Rate Factors: Impact of population growth, educational attainment, resource abundance, etc. on GDP growth rates.
Page 16: Economic Growth and Labor Force Dynamics
Correlation: Faster growth of economically active populations corresponds to higher GDP per capita growth.
Page 17: Youth Population Impact
Negative Coefficient: Increase by 1% in the population under age 15 negatively affects economic growth rates significantly.
Page 18: Older Population Growth Dynamics
Growth Rates: Economic growth rates are slower when the working-age population's growth falls behind overall population growth before 1970.
Page 19: The East Asian Miracle
Population Dynamics Contribution: Population changes have contributed significantly to GDP growth in East Asia, illustrating a connection between demographic shifts and economic outcomes.
Page 20: Economic Growth Projections
Model Definition: If stable economic growth is set at 2%, miracle growth defined at 4.11% indicates substantial demographic influence on growth.
Page 21: Future Aging Population Forecasts
Investigations: Impact of population aging on economic growth and projections for 12 developing Asian economies (2011-2030).
Page 22: Key Ratios in Economic Studies
Old-age Ratio & Youth Dependency Ratio: Definitions of demographic measures pertinent to economic analysis.
Page 23: Population Trends from 1950-2050
Graphical Trends: Graphs depict demographic shifts—young and elderly as a share of total population across various Asian economies.
Page 24: Growth Sources Summary
First Demographic Dividend: Economic growth linked to the rise in the working-age share of the population—using production functions to represent growth.
Page 25: Economic Growth Components
Growth Rate Equation: Four factors affecting GDP per capita growth.
Page 26: Contribution to Per Capita GDP Growth
Components Breakdown: Detailed examination of GDP growth contributions across 12 Asian economies.
Page 27: Labor Characteristics Influence
Labor Dynamics: Impact of various dependency ratios and labor variables on economic productivity.
Page 28: Depreciating Economic Growth Effects
Economic Relationships: Presentation of age-related growth patterns and productivity factors impacting economic health.
Page 29: Calculation Methodology
Regression Models: Explanation of statistical modeling including various demographics and growth trends.
Page 30: Effects on Labor Force and Economic Metrics
Negative Correlation: Analysis of how an increase in old-age dependency impacts economic labor growth.
Page 31: Labor Productivity Insights
Age Structure Effects: Understanding of how productivity is affected by demographics and dependency ratios.
Page 32: Longitudinal Growth Projections
Statistical Growth Models: Displays the explicit relationship between demographic changes and growth metrics for better understanding.
Page 33: Balance Between Labor and Demographics
Income vs. Age Economic Relationships: Outcomes of demographic shifts affecting labor productivity and capital accumulation.
Page 34: Youth Dependency Ratio Trends
Growth Improvement: Lower youth dependency correlates positively with economic growth.
Page 35: Projections for Economic Growth
Demographic Influence: Final collective impacts leading to growth rates based on changing dependency ratios.
Page 36: Aging Population Economic Outcomes
Emphasis on Future Projections: Specific impacts of aging on economic growth through various models for Asian economies.
Page 37: Projections for Economic Growth by Country
Detailed Projections: Specific projections for aging impacts on economic growth in various economies.
Page 38: Conclusions on Demographic Changes
Future Strategies: Recommendations to address aging population challenges, including policy changes and social support systems.
Page 39: Reference Materials
Publications for Further Reading: Various sources discussing population aging and economic impacts in Asia.
Page 40: Introduction of Labor Contributions
Labor Participation Rates: Labor income dynamics among different age groups across selected Asian economies.
Page 41: Analysis of Older Adult Support
Aging Transition: Trends in differing support needs between younger and older adult populations across Asia.
Page 42: Lifecycle Deficits in Economic Models
Lifecycle Deficits: Discussion of labor income and consumption dynamics as it relates to age.
Page 43: Age Reallocation Systems
Three Components: Outlines variables affecting population aging such as public transfers, familial transfers, and asset-based reallocations.
Page 44: Lifecycle Deficits Support Strategies
Funding Mechanisms: Examination of social support sources for the elderly and their economic impacts.
Page 45: Public Sector Reliance Comparison
Importance of Public Sector: Insights on how reliance on public sector support varies between older populations in Asia compared to other regions.
Page 46: Elderly Financial Support Structures
Asset vs. Transfers: Analysis of financial support reliance, emphasizing familial over public sector transfers in Asian contexts.
Page 47: Support Mechanisms in Aging Economies
Family vs. Public Support: Contrast of familial support versus public transfers in addressing elderly needs across different Asian economies.
Page 48: Fiscal Effects of Aging
Fiscal Support Ratio: Discussion on how aging demographics will impact fiscal policies and ratios in the future.
Page 49: Healthcare Expenditure Projections
Health Expenditure Trends: Historical and projected healthcare expenditures as a percentage of GDP in various Asian countries.
Page 50: Long-Term Economic Growth Strategies
Demographic Implications: Discussion on managing growth through asset reliance in an aging population.
Page 51: Conclusion
Final Thoughts: The overarching impact of demographic shifts on economic growth and the need for adaptive policies to support aging populations.