Predict significant changes over the next five to ten years, surpassing the last thirty.
Historical progression:
Transition from automation of pen and paper with spreadsheets.
Establishing local networks followed by internet connectivity.
Global communication via network effects.
Current trend: Introduction of machine intelligence (AI, machine learning, deep learning).
The emergence of machine intelligence leads to the 'automation of automation.'
Lower-level programming roles (e.g., basic coding) are diminishing as software becomes self-writing.
Historical coding practices involved simple conditional logic ("if this, then that").
Evolution of coding to utilize libraries for complex automation;
This complexity is increasingly being automated.
Shift from manual tasks to requiring knowledge of tool usage:
Workers must adapt to use the technology effectively.
The paradigm: "Either software works for you, or you work for software."
Understanding this shift is crucial to grasp changes in work and employment dynamics.
Fortune 500, S&P 500, and Dow 30 companies aware of shrinking workforces.
The economics of supply and demand for stocks is evolving:
Supply of labor shrinking, demand increasing.
Positive outlook for stocks amidst negative implications for employment.
Job landscape shifted from massive employers (e.g., GM) to tech companies (e.g., Facebook).
Revenue per employee metrics starkly contrast across industries.
Rate of disruption is accelerating:
The timeline for job displacement is reducing (20 years to perhaps 3-5 years).
Anticipate a permanent reduction in traditional jobs (manufacturing, coal mining).
Infrastructure projects may temporarily provide jobs but won’t change broader trends.
Recognizing the impending workforce challenges is essential.
Questioning the relevance of traditional adult education and job training models.
Concern over what skills to learn; tech will automate many finance and programming roles.
Likely increased demand for liberal arts graduates in the future:
Need for critical thinkers to interpret automated data outputs.
Importance of diverse perspectives in analyzing information.
Celebrating the potential rise in importance of humanities disciplines:
English, philosophy, and foreign languages may gain value in an automated landscape.
Not immediate but expected shift as job disruptions increase.
Addressing concerns for millions facing job displacement:
Need to devise strategies to manage waves of affected workers.