future of Belgium

subject of ridicule or leader by example?

• Belgium is a good country to live in (high GDP, good social security, smaller economic inequality and poverty rates, capital EU/NATO,…)

consociational success

• deep social division settled in peaceful way

  • religious conflicts, socio-economic conflicts, linguistic conflicts

• reconciling unreconcilable interests = Belgian specialty

  • delicate (and often complex) compromises

  • segmental autonomy if needed

  • = consociationalism

political challenges and future prospects

state structure

• state reforms: way to de-escalate linguistic conflict

• quest for autonomy

  • FL: cultural-linguistic autonomy (communities)

  • FR: socio-economic autonomy (regions)

  • complex situation in Brussels

• federal cooperation and respect for minority rights

  • language groups (parl.), ministerial parity, special majority laws…

  • conflicts of interest, alarm bell procedure, concertation committee…

• state reforms successful in pacifying conflict…temporarily

• paradox of federalism

  • federalism = counterproductive?

  • doesn’t pacify conflict

  • but strengthens regional identities and deepens divisions

  • leads to more regionalist tendencies?

• Belgian state constantly questioned from within

  • not only by anti-establishment parties

  • also by mainstream parties

  • next reform bound to happen?

• Belgian federation: complex because of compromises; lack of transparancy and democratic accountability

• Francophone minority nto treated ideally when living in Flanders, Wallonia less economically prosperous

  • Flemish side: frustration because it can’t use its demographic majority (minority gets veto powers, so Flemish nationalists and populists use that)

• the next state reform?

  • Belgian system lacks structural support at elite level (too complex and inefficient?)

  • public aware that new reforms will probably follow someday (but for many: state structure less important than health, financial stability, social security…)

  • splitting of Belgium?

    • N-VA and VB

    • what about Brussels?

    • public support?

  • confederal Belgium?

    • multiple interpretations (but what about Brussels?)

  • reforming the federation?

    • federation of 4

    • first time: re-federalize competences?

  • any pathway → negotiations and implementation will be extremely difficult

still consociational?

• divide between 2 linguistic communities makes federal power-sharing difficult

  • centrifugalism

  • bipolarism: 2 is awkward number (shit about same enamy, remember?)

  • need to compromise

  • but difficult → potential deadlock and long coalition formation processes

• 2 democracies? split party system, media landscape, different political priorities…)

• complex federal coalition bargaining

  • party system fragmentation, absence market leader, search for majorities, refusal to govern with VB/PVDA, symmetry…

  • periods of current affairs increasingly long (problems during crises)

  • solution: less parties? introduce formal deadline?

distrust and anti-establishment attitudes

• complex coalition formations, difficult consensus-seeking, lack structural support for state structure, inefficient and in transparant policy-making…

• fertile ground for political distrust, dissatisfaction, support for anti-establishment parties

• success PVDA and Flemish interest → further complicates coalition formation (hollowing out centre)