Iran Protests: Analysis and Future Implications

Iran Protests and the Future of the Islamic Republic

The protests in Iran have been ongoing for three months.
They represent a clash between a young, modern population seeking change and an aging theocratic regime determined to maintain power.
The protests began following the death of Mahsa Amini, who was detained for allegedly wearing an improper hijab.
Despite being unarmed and leaderless, the protests persist despite violent crackdowns by the regime.
Over 18,000 protesters have been arrested, more than 475 killed, and 11 sentenced to death.
The execution of Mohsen Shekari, a 23-year-old arrested during the protests, has further fueled the unrest.

The protests have altered the relationship between the Iranian state and society.
Defying the hijab law is increasingly common, especially in Tehran.
Videos of Iranians removing turbans from Shiite clerics are popular on social media.
Government symbols, including Ayatollah Khomeini's ancestral home, have been defaced and set on fire.
Strikes by laborers, bazaar merchants, and petrochemical workers echo tactics from the 1979 revolution.

The ideological principles of Ayatollah Khamenei and his followers are "Death to America," "Death to Israel," and insistence on hijab.
Khamenei’s philosophy is shaped by the fall of Iran’s monarchy (1979), the dissolution of the Soviet Union (1991), and the Arab uprisings of 2011.
His response to these events has been to never compromise under pressure or on principles.
Khamenei has consistently chosen repression over reform.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei faces the dictator's dilemma: offering change risks weakness, while not offering change risks continued protests.
Rescinding compulsory hijab is seen as a gateway to broader freedoms, which the regime fears.
The regime believes that granting freedom of dress will lead to demands for other freedoms, such as the freedom to drink, eat, read, love, watch, listen, and speak freely.

There are signs of disarray within the ruling elite regarding how to handle the protests.
Some officials have suggested abolishing the morality police, while others see it as a temporary tactic.
Hossein Jalali, a clerical ally of Khamenei, stated that the collapse of the hijab would be the collapse of the Islamic Republic's flag.
He threatened to freeze the bank accounts of women who refuse to comply with hijab laws.

The Iranian regime possesses a formidable repressive capacity.
Ayatollah Khamenei commands 190,000 members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and tens of thousands of Basij militants.
The conscription army, with approximately 350,000 active forces, is unlikely to join the opposition.
The security services may be contemplating whether removing Khamenei would preserve their own interests, similar to Tunisia and Egypt in 2011.

Charles Kurzman noted that revolutions require a critical mass of supporters who perceive the movement as viable.
There are increasing doubts about the regime’s viability among a critical mass of Iranians.
Nasrin Sotoudeh believes that regime change is a real possibility.
The regime's rule through fear is diminishing, with acts of defiance becoming more common.
Female athletes and actors are appearing without the hijab, and political prisoners are remaining defiant.
Killings of protesters often lead to mourning ceremonies that perpetuate the protests.

The current movement is driven by pluralism and patriotism, unlike the anti-imperialism of the 1979 revolution.
The faces of the movement are athletes, musicians, and ordinary people, especially women and ethnic minorities.
Slogans include "We will not leave Iran, we will reclaim Iran," and "Women, life, freedom."
Shervin Hajipour’s song “Baraye” (“For”) has become the anthem of the protests, expressing a desire for a normal life.

American and Israeli intelligence officials do not currently view the protests as a serious threat to the regime.
However, history shows that predicting popular uprisings is difficult.
The C.I.A. underestimated the likelihood of the 1979 revolution.
Abbas Amanat highlights Iran’s cultural power to co-opt invaders, with Persian culture, language, and traditions enduring over millennia.
Ayatollah Khomeini sought to replace Iranian patriotism with Islamic identity, a tradition continued by Ayatollah Khamenei.

While the Islamic Republic sought to subdue Iranian culture, it is Iranian culture and patriotism that are threatening to undo the Islamic Republic.
Four decades of the Islamic Republic’s hard power will ultimately be defeated by two millenniums of Iranian cultural soft power.
The question is no longer about whether this will happen but when.
There is an inverse relationship between the courage of an opposition and the resolve of a regime, and authoritarian collapse often goes from inconceivable to inevitable in days.