week 10: human rights data

The reliability of human rights data

• If u lsiten to how policymakers speak, stats are eveyrwhere. How reliable is this? 

• The common assumption is that stats = facts and facts = true. This is, obviously, not correct. 

• Think thru stats deeply. Question them. Are they trustworthy?

Scholarly importance of human rights data

• Poli scientsits have increasingly used stats to study human rights as they asnwer questions like

  • What kinds of states are more repressive than others

  • What impact do various foreign policies ahve on human rights practices in targetted states

  • Etc. 

Political importants of hr data

• Important role in persuading target audiences to have them do what they wanna do. 

• For social movements and activists, stats can help generate support for a cause and motivate political action

  • Ex, argetnian hr movement. Military in the 70s made lik 30,000 disappearances. Activists used this number to persuade the current govt to engage in deep widespread political reform. The bigger the number, the more the need is for policy change. 

  • The politicians at hte time were like “nahhh its like 7k, SO we dont need massive change”. The military doubeld down and were like “pfft not even, like 1200, we dont need change. Not a big issue”. 

• this^ is not unique to argentina. Darfur

  • Early 2000s, activists emphasized that 400k civilians have been killed since the start of the civil war. This number was used to substantiate the claim that the govt is comtiting genocide. 

  • Obviously this number was contested, but this number made other nations get involved. Lobbying western govts to engage in hi. 

Personal importance of hr data

• Makes the relationship between our own opinions and the truth. Am i right in what i beleoive? 

• Useful in testing the validity of our perspective. 

• Ex

  • In the 80s, a lot of americans were worried abt terrorisim. That year it was found out that more americans died in their bathtub than dying from a terrorist attack. 

Prof’s personal importance

• International crcisi group, should the us invade iraq to advance its war on terror?

• Ppl around prof were anti war, profs in his lecs were anti war, and david was like “yeah i agree, war sux” BUT THEN

• There was a stat by the international crisi group. It was abt how iraqis themselves feel abt the prospect of an invasion

  • “Attitudes towards a us strike are complex, but the overwhelming sentiment was they would support an american led attack”

  • Bizarre. 

• Another one was microaggressions. He would walk on eggshells to avoid these aggressions. 

  • Then the stats came out. And pocs in america are fond of the opportunities in teh west. 

Options when data and personal opinions collide

1. Ignore the data and hold the same view 

2. Question the data and find legitimate reasons to reject its reliability resulting in holding teh same opinion

3. Question the data and find legitimate reasons to accept its reliability, resulting in a new opino

4. Accept the data and immediately chage our mind. 

Assessing data reliability

• Torture in mexico

• According to the data, theres a crap ton of torture. It tells us mexico is corrupt. But is this data reliable?

• 5 questions to ask

1. Who collected the data? Do they have incentives to misrepresetn teh torture patterns in mexico? Is it an activist group that’s putting the govt in a bad light? 

   1. The mexico data comes from the v-dem project. Ppl around the world. Its specifically run by svend, danish professor. 

   2. Okay this sounds good, but is it still reliable?

2. How is torture defined?

   1. We can go to the vdem codebook. 

   2. “Torture is the purpose inflicting of physical/mental pain in order to extract information”. Roughly. 

   3. Are there any biases in that definition?

      1. One issue w the definition can be how is pain defined? Extreme pain is hard to define. Pain is a subjective experience. 

      2. What impact might these definitions have to tell us abt the tortue in mexico. 

3. How was the info on tortue measured and quantified? 

   1. Whos doing this? Is it one person reviewing the info or is it many ppl coming to a consensus?

   2. Vdem says how they gather data from 5 countries, all providing judgement. So many experts. Diverse opinions. 

   3. This is a strong reliable indicator. 

4. Is the data being presented too specific to be believable?

   1. Since torture is a hideen practice, we shouldnt have specific numbers. Its a red flag. 

   2. The 0-4 range builds trust in data. Show a general trend. 

5. How old is it?

   1. Observers say that going abc in time is less and less reliable. Esp statts that arent censuses. 

Break

Assessing the reliability of human rights ngo reports

• The reports published by leading human rights ngos like amnesty international and human rights wathc, are significant. They can shape the publics perception of conflicts resulting in activism and protests. They can also shape govt and un policy. 

• But the qualitative data provided doesnt tell us the truth. why?

1.  Ngo reports are designed to achieve a policy goal. 

2. They study complex topics which are open to interpretation. 

   1. Review w skepticism, not cynicism. 

4 key characteristics of hrw methods

1. Get on the ground presence w the region being studied

2. Build working relaitpnship w locals, activists, ngos, journalists and gov officials

3. Conduct interviews w vics and witnesses of issues being examined

4. Conduct interviews w govt, military, and rebel group officials. 

Sources of bias in hrw methods

1. Reliance on vic and witness testimony

   1. Ppl misremember. 

2. The political motives of those being interviewed

How to reduce the bias, 5 things

1. In person interviews

2. Private interviews

3. Confidential interviews

4. Asking the  same question many times

5. Asking the same questions to diff ppl