Study Guide Opinions

Topic 0: Introduction to Public Opinion

1. V.O. Key's comment:
   Front: What did V.O. Key say about public opinion and the holy ghost?
   Back: "To speak with precision of public opinion is a task not unlike coming to grips with the Holy Ghost."

2. Definitions of public opinion:
   Front: What are two definitions of public opinion?
   Back: 1) The sum of individual opinions
   2) The collective preferences on matters related to government and politics

3. Challenges in studying public opinion:
   Front: What are the three main challenges in studying public opinion?
   Back: 1) Defining public opinion
   2) Measuring public opinion
   3) Determining how/if public opinion impacts policy

4. Examples of challenges:
   Front: Provide an example for each of the three main challenges in studying public opinion.
   Back: (Answers may vary, but should relate to definition, measurement, and policy impact)

Topic 1: Attitudes, Opinions, Measurement

5. Political attitudes:
   Front: Define political attitudes and their components.
   Back: Consistent beliefs, values, and feelings about political issues, policies, and institutions. Components include cognitive, affective, and behavioral aspects.

6. Attitude strength:
   Front: Differentiate between strong, weak, and constructed attitudes.
   Back: Strong attitudes are stable and influential; weak attitudes are less stable; constructed attitudes are formed on the spot when asked.

7. Attitude strength over time:
   Front: How does attitude strength vary over time? Provide a presidential example.
   Back: Attitude strength can change over time. Example: Attitudes towards a president may strengthen or weaken based on their performance or events during their term.

8. Measuring political attitudes:
   Front: What are some methods for measuring political attitudes?
   Back: Surveys, polls, interviews, focus groups, and experimental methods.

9. Opinion vs. Attitude:
   Front: Why doesn't opinion perfectly reflect the underlying attitude?
   Back: Measurement error, social desirability bias, question wording effects, context effects, and the complexity of attitudes.

10. Measurement examples:
    Front: Give examples of how political attitudes are measured.
    Back: Trump approval ratings, abortion stance questions, cultural liberalism scales.

11. Multi-item scales:
    Front: What are multi-item scales and why are they useful?
    Back: Series of related questions combined to measure an underlying concept. Useful for measuring complex attitudes and reducing measurement error.

12. Multi-item scale tradeoff:
    Front: What's the tradeoff between longer multi-item scales and survey space?
    Back: Longer scales provide more reliable measurement but take up more survey space, limiting other questions that can be asked.

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Topic 2: Samples, Population, Inferences

13. Repeated sampling:
    Front: Explain the concept of repeated sampling in polling.
    Back: If we took 1,000 samples of the same size from a population, we'd get 1,000 slightly different estimates (e.g., approval ratings).

14. Population vs. Sample:
    Front: Why do we sample instead of measuring the entire population?
    Back: Measuring an entire population is often impractical, too expensive, or impossible. Sampling allows us to make inferences about the population.

15. Literary Digest Fiasco:
    Front: What was the Literary Digest Fiasco of 1936?
    Back: The magazine incorrectly predicted Alf Landon would beat Franklin D. Roosevelt due to a biased sample, despite a large sample size.

16. Representative vs. Non-representative samples:
    Front: What's the difference between representative and non-representative samples?
    Back: Representative samples accurately reflect the characteristics of the population, while non-representative samples do not.

17. Non-ignorable non-response:
    Front: What is non-ignorable non-response in polling?
    Back: When people who don't respond to a survey differ systematically from those who do, potentially biasing results.

18. 2016 vs. 2024 polls:
    Front: How did polls perform in the 2016 vs. 2024 presidential elections?
    Back: 2016 polls underestimated Trump's support in key states. 2024 polls were more accurate (Note: As of 2023, we don't have 2024 election results, so this is hypothetical).

19. Margin of error:
    Front: What is the margin of error in polling?
    Back: The range within which the true population value is likely to fall, given the sample estimate.

20. Sample size and margin of error:
    Front: How does sample size affect margin of error?
    Back: Larger sample sizes generally lead to smaller margins of error, but with diminishing returns.

21. Interpreting a poll:
    Front: What four elements should you consider when interpreting a poll?
    Back: 1) Sample estimate, 2) Population value, 3) Margin of error, 4) Confidence level

22. Survey methods:
    Front: Name three types of survey methods and their characteristics.
    Back: 1) Face-to-face: in-person interviews
    2) RDD (Random Digit Dialing): telephone surveys
    3) Scientific online surveys: web-based, probability sampling

23. Gold standard surveys:
    Front: What makes a survey "gold standard" and give examples.
    Back: High-quality probability sampling, careful question design, high response rates. Examples: American National Election Studies (ANES), General Social Survey (GSS).

24. Response rate trends:
    Front: What's the historical trend in survey response rates?
    Back: Response rates have been declining over time, posing challenges for researchers.

25. Survey weighting:
    Front: What is survey weighting, why is it done, and what are its limits?
    Back: Adjusting the importance of responses to match population characteristics. Done to correct for sampling biases. Limited by available population data and assumptions made.

Topic 3: Knowledge and Misinformation

26. Political knowledge:
    Front: Define political knowledge and its components.
    Back: Correct information about politics. Components may include civic knowledge, current events, political processes, and government structures.

27. Measuring political knowledge:
    Front: How is political knowledge typically measured?
    Back: Through multi-item scales with factual questions about politics and government.

28. Knowledge distribution:
    Front: How is political knowledge distributed in the mass public?
    Back: Unevenly, with a small proportion highly knowledgeable, a larger middle group with moderate knowledge, and many with low knowledge.

29. Faulty people vs. faulty respondents:
    Front: What is the debate between "faulty people" and "faulty respondents"?
    Back: Whether low knowledge scores reflect true ignorance (faulty people) or measurement issues (faulty respondents).

30. Political misinformation:
    Front: Define political misinformation, including the confidence aspect.
    Back: Holding incorrect political information with confidence.

31. Misinformation distribution:
    Front: How is political misinformation distributed in the mass public?
    Back: High mean (many people hold some misinformation) and high variance (some people hold much more misinformation than others).

32. Motivated reasoning:
    Front: How does motivated reasoning relate to misinformation?
    Back: People tend to seek out, believe, and remember information that confirms their existing beliefs, potentially reinforcing misinformation.

33. Expressive responding:
    Front: How does expressive responding relate to misinformation?
    Back: People may give incorrect answers to signal group loyalty or express disapproval rather than due to genuine misinformation.