John Mearsheimer, Who Predicted Russia Ukraine War, Says Pro-Zelensky Europe 'Coalition' Won't Last

Overview of the Meeting

• Setting: 50-minute meeting between President Trump and President Zelensky in the Oval Office.

• Participants: President Trump, Vice President Pence, and President Zelensky.

• Purpose: Discussion of security guarantees and negotiations concerning Ukraine amidst its ongoing conflict.

• Initial Reaction: Professor John Mearsheimer described the atmosphere as shocking and unprecedented, noting the visible tension between the parties.

Key Dynamics of the Meeting

• Early Stages of the Meeting:

  • The discussion seemed stable, with both leaders discussing key issues.

  • Pence's questions prompted a turning point, escalating tensions.

  • Pence's Role: Seen as confrontational; raised uncomfortable issues that shifted the conversation negatively.

• Underlying Tensions:

  • Britain, France, and Ukraine aiming to obtain a security guarantee from the United States.

  • Trump was resolute against providing any guarantees, affecting U.S.-U.K.-Ukrainian relations.

Context Leading to the Meeting

• Recent Diplomatic Activities:

  • Macron (France) and Starmer (U.K.) visited prior to Zelensky's meeting, setting the stage for high-stakes discussions on security.

  • Discussions revolved around a mineral deal potentially involving $500 billion, aimed at indirectly securing U.S. support for Ukraine.

Analysis of Strategic Goals

• U.S. Position:

  • Trump and Pence are committed to avoiding security guarantees for Ukraine, focusing instead on negotiating with Russia.

  • Frustration from both sides culminated in the last minutes of their discussion leading to a breakdown.

• Ukrainian Concerns:

  • Zelensky was under immense pressure due to Ukraine's dire military situation, seeking U.S. guarantees.

  • The lack of clarity from the U.S. leads to heightened Ukrainian frustration.

Future Prospects and Implications

• Retrievability of Situation:

  • Mearsheimer expresses skepticism about the U.S. returning to a supportive position regarding Ukraine.

  • Recent proposals from Macron and Starmer deemed impractical by Mearsheimer, asserting that they lack serious foundation.

• Trade-offs for the U.S.:

  • Questions remain regarding the benefits of the mineral deal for Ukraine versus the unilateral gains for the U.S.

  • Mearsheimer critiques the feasibility of the deal suggesting that it offers little to Ukraine's security needs.

European Stability and Unity

• Diverging European Interests:

  • Mearsheimer notes a lack of cohesion among European nations regarding defense spending and support for Ukraine.

  • Escalating tensions between U.S. and European relations are likely to surface as challenges emerge.

• Possibility of a European Army:

  • Mearsheimer believes forming a cohesive European military force is unrealistic without U.S. support.

  • Historical reliance on U.S. military strength makes independent European action unlikely.

Implications for NATO

• NATO’s Future:

  • Significant rupture noted in U.S.-European relationships, with potential U.S. disengagement from European commitments.

  • Mearsheimer warns that NATO could become a shell of its former self if the U.S. reduces troop presence in Europe.

Outcomes in Ukraine

• Zelensky's Future:

  • Mearsheimer predicts a bleak outlook for Zelensky, labeling him a failed leader in light of the ongoing war.

  • The war is causing a consensus that Zelensky may be forced out of office due to increasing dissatisfaction among Ukrainians.

Conclusion

• Next Steps:

  • Immediate future projections indicate continued conflict in Ukraine, with potential for a ceasefire but not a genuine peace agreement.

  • Mearsheimer suggests that without U.S. backing, Ukraine's prospects in conflict situations are significantly diminished, risking further loss on the battlefield.