Hurricane Prediction and Preparedness

Hurricane Prediction

  • satellites and radar allow us to spot tropical cycles days to weeks before they will strike an area
  • however, we’re only making predictions about the exact path they will take because this can change

National Hurricane Center Track Forecast Cone

  • possible track of the center of the tropical cyclone
  • based on the current trajectory and historical data
  • cone gets larger the farther into the future you project

Hurricane Preparedness

  • advanced warning means that deaths due to hurricanes has dropped
  • general guidance is to NEVER ride out the storm
  • evacuate people inland when satellite shows a hurricane is coming
  • population of coastal areas is increasing
    • makes it harder to evacuate large numbers of people quickly
    • gridlock
    • 110 evacuees died in Hurricane Rita in Texas (2005) in a traffic jam
  • some cities could take up to 3 days to evacuate
    • 50-60 hours for Fort Myers, Florida, 30-39 hours for Miami/Fort Lauderdale
  • safe evacuation may not be possible with the increased population
  • if not evacuating, you should:
    • move away from the water
    • hide from the wind

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