Hurricane Prediction and Preparedness

Hurricane Prediction

• satellites and radar allow us to spot tropical cycles days to weeks before they will strike an area
• however, we’re only making predictions about the exact path they will take because this can change

National Hurricane Center Track Forecast Cone

• possible track of the center of the tropical cyclone
• based on the current trajectory and historical data
• cone gets larger the farther into the future you project

Hurricane Preparedness

• advanced warning means that deaths due to hurricanes has dropped
• general guidance is to NEVER ride out the storm
• evacuate people inland when satellite shows a hurricane is coming
• population of coastal areas is increasing
  • makes it harder to evacuate large numbers of people quickly
  • gridlock
  • 110 evacuees died in Hurricane Rita in Texas (2005) in a traffic jam
• some cities could take up to 3 days to evacuate
  • 50-60 hours for Fort Myers, Florida, 30-39 hours for Miami/Fort Lauderdale
• safe evacuation may not be possible with the increased population
• if not evacuating, you should:
  • move away from the water
  • hide from the wind