Chapter 4: Canada's Population in a Global Context

Introduction

  • All 3 key demographic processes are dependent on age
  • All 3 key demographic processes are related to sex and gender   * Survival advantage of women over men
  • Composition: the distribution of the population in accordance with the intersecting characteristics of age and sex

Principles of Age and Sex Composition

Population Age Distribution

  • Age distribution: those under 15 (youth), those aged 15-64 (working age), and those aged 65+ (post-retirement)   * These are approximations   * To get a sense of the economic dependency burden in a given society
  • Total dependency ratio: the ratio of youth + old-age dependents ÷ working-age population   * Obtain a measure of a society’s overall dependency on the workers, who must provide for those not in the labor force
  • Dependency ratio:   * If it is greater than 100 → more dependents than workers in the population   * If it is below 100 → more workers than dependents in the population
  • Populations with relatively large old-age components tend to have relatively small youth components and have a relatively high median age

Age Pyramids

  • Age-sex pyramid: a pictorial representation of the age and sex composition of the population
  • Median age: the age that divides the distribution in half (half the population is above the median and the other half is below)

Typology of Age Pyramids

  • Demographic transition   * Early stages: age pyramid = pagoda-like (wide base and narrowing structure)   * Most explosive growth stage: triangular shape   * Post-transitional phase: urn-shaped pyramid (narrow bottom, large bulge in the middle, sharp narrowing at the top)
  • Aging transition: societies pass from an initially young to an eventual aging structure
  • Canada: urn-shaped pyramid   * Bulge in middle, largest segment of population → baby boom generation
  • Stable population: structure with very low constant rates of natural growth
  • Stationary age structure: structure in which annual rates of natural increase remain exactly zero indefinitely due to equal numbers of births and deaths annually

Determinants of Age Composition

  • Shifts in age composition are caused by changes in fertility (mostly) and mortality
  • Intrinsic rate of natural increase: the difference between the intrinsic birth rate and the intrinsic death rate   * Intrinsic birth rate: rate at which mothers bear their daughters in a stable population, determined by a set of constant age-specific birth rates   * Intrinsic death rate: death rate in a stable population, determined by a set of constant age-specific death rates

The Relative Importance of Fertility and Mortality

  • Life expectancy at birth: measure of survival determined by a populations’ age-specific mortality rates   * Higher life expectancy = better survival probability
  • Gross reproduction rate (GRR): measures the average number of daughters born to a women, given a prevailing schedule of age-specific fertility rates   * Greater GRR = higher fertility
  • Declining mortality → makes the age distribution younger   * Because more young people + more births
  • When mortality declines are in infancy/early childhood = younger population
  • When mortality declines are in the ages 45+ = aging population → advanced societies today

Effects of Migration on Age-Sex Structure

  • Negligible! In large national populations, any amount of migration will only have a minor impact
  • Age pyramid of foreign-born population: diamond-shaped (few immigrants below 15 and 65)

Age Distribution as Demographic Memory

  • 2 populations with different age structures will converge to identical age compositions if they have identical age-specific birth and death rates over 70 years or more   * Example: Sri Lanka + Sweden
  • Ergodic property of populations: the tendency for populations to eventually “forget” their initial age distributions
  • Time it takes for a population’s age structure to change completely: 100 years

Population Momentum

  • Population momentum: M = the size of the stationary population ÷ size of the initial population   * M is greater than 1: population increase   * M = 1: no momentum   * M is below 1: population decline
  • Useful for planning purposes
  • Net reproduction rate (NRR): measure of a population reproductivity. the extent to which mothers replace themselves by bearing daughters, taking into account mortality to women in the reproductive ages

Sex Ratios

Basic Principles

  • Sex ratio: numerical balance between males and females in a population   * Should be close to 100 males per 100 females   * Primary sex ratio: ratio of males to females at conception   * Secondary sex ratio: ratio of males to females at birth   * Tertiary sex ratio: ratio of males to females at birth beyond infancy

Sex Ratio at Conception

  • Human sex ratio at conception = 115/130 males for every 100 females   * Cause: males are at greater risk of death than females throughout the entire lifecycle

Sex Ratios at Birth and in Early Childhood

  • Secondary sex ratio depends on 2 factors:   * The sex ratio at conception   * Sex-selective loss during pregnancy
  • Normal range: 103-107 boys born for 100 girls   * More male than female fetuses are lost to spontaneous abortion or stillbirth
  • Sex-ratio at birth is controlled by parental hormone levels at the time of conception   * Severe stress   * Highly traumatic events
  • Evolutionary biology theory: in the animal kingdom, pregnant females when faced by severe stressors preferentially abort frail male fetuses   * Not proven in humans

Sex Ratios in Adulthood and Old Age

  • Determined by gender-based difference in mortality
  • Females live longer than males

Societal Ramifications of Change in Age-Sex Composition

Sex Ratio Effects

  • High sex ratio for black and white populations (more men than women): low levels of family disruption, high rates of violent crime
  • Low sex ratio (more women than men): low rates of violent crime, high levels of family disruption

  → Direct positive effects on the sex ratio on rates of criminal violence and negative indirect effects via family disruption

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