Risk: The probability of suffering harm from a hazard including injury, disease, death, or economic loss.
Possibility vs Probability:
Possibility: The event could happen.
Probability: The chances or odds of the event happening.
The media influences the public perception of risk through information dissemination.
Example: Avian Bird Flu has resulted in no deaths in the U.S. while the common flu causes about 35,000 deaths annually.
Biological Hazards
Over 1,400 known pathogens can infect humans (e.g., bacteria, viruses, parasites).
Chemical Hazards
Chemicals present in air, water, soil, and food (e.g., mercury in fish).
Physical Hazards
Natural disasters including fire, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes.
Cultural Hazards
Unsafe working conditions, unsafe highways, and poverty.
Lifestyle Choices
Choices like smoking, drinking, drug use, and inactivity.
Indoor air pollution
Outdoor air pollution
Worker exposure to industrial chemicals
Toxins in drinking water
Pesticides residues on food
Acid deposition, airborne toxic chemicals, ecological disturbances.
Oil spills, groundwater pollution, thermal pollution.
Risk analysis involves evaluating hazards, ranking risks, and determining mitigation strategies.
Factors affecting perception:
Greatest risk is poverty; lifestyle choices significantly impact health.
Recommendations: Avoid smoking, maintain healthy weight, limit alcohol, practice safe sex.
2005 study suggests 1/3 cancer deaths could be avoided through these guidelines.
Estimating risk is complex; higher system complexity increases hazard prediction difficulty.
Example: Reliability = Technological Reliability x Human Reliability.
Historical examples: Chernobyl, Three Mile Island.
Many ignore risks from enjoyable activities (e.g., motorcycle riding, smoking).
Factors influencing risk evaluation:
Fear: Overestimates risk from rare events.
Control: Higher fear over uncontrollable risks (e.g., flying vs driving).
Type of Risk: Catastrophic vs chronic.
Optimism Bias: Belief risks apply to others, not oneself.
Instant Gratification: Choosing pleasurable actions despite known risks.
Non-transmissible Diseases: Caused by non-pathogens, develop slowly (e.g., heart disease, cancer).
Transmissible Diseases: Can spread between humans (e.g., flu, HIV, malaria).
Pathways: Air, food, water, and unsanitary habits.
Epidemic vs Pandemic: Epidemics are localized outbreaks; pandemics involve global spread.
Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs): New metrics for evaluating the burden of diseases.
Infects ~10 million globally yearly, with ~1.5 million deaths.
Treatment challenges due to patient non-compliance result in resistance.
Control measures needed include improved screening and treatment in developing countries.
Influenza (Flu)
Causes ~500,000 deaths yearly; pandemics can be lethal (1918 Spanish Flu example).
Hepatitis B (HBV)
Affects the liver, causing ~1.1 million deaths annually.
HIV
Infects ~1.7 million annually; major challenge in developing regions.
Carcinogens: Cause/promote cancer, often with delayed effects.
Mutagens: Damage DNA, potentially hereditary mutations.
Teratogens: Cause birth defects in developing embryos.
Affected Systems: Immune, nervous, and endocrine systems—with specific examples of neurotoxins and endocrine disruptors.
Toxicology: Study of harmful chemical effects.
Dose impacts: Variable response based on age, size, and genetics.
Solubility and persistence: Impacts on environment and human health.
Encourage regulatory measures for toxic chemical releases and promote alternatives.
Implementation of the Precautionary Principle—act to reduce risks even amid scientific uncertainty.
Major preventable cause of death, contributing to ~400,000 deaths annually in the U.S.
Quitting at younger ages dramatically improves health outcomes.
Public health interventions can reduce smoking prevalence.