EN-Roads Simulator Overview

EN-Roads Simulator

Introduction

Andrew Jones from Climate Interactive introduces EN-Roads, a simulator developed in collaboration with MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative and Tonis Systems. EN-Roads is designed to help users understand how different actions impact energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and overall temperature, with the goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. The simulator allows for the exploration of various climate change mitigation strategies and their potential outcomes.

Overview of EN-Roads

EN-Roads enables users to model the effects of single actions, such as implementing a carbon price, or combinations of actions, like combining a carbon price with energy efficiency measures in transportation, buildings, and industry. The simulator employs a system dynamics model to project outcomes over time based on user-defined policies, offering a comprehensive view of long-term impacts.

Key Interface Elements:

• Energy Sources: The left side of the interface displays global sources of primary energy, including:

  • Coal (brown): Indicates the use of coal as a primary energy source.

  • Oil and natural gas (red): Represents the utilization of oil and natural gas.

  • Renewables (wind, solar, hydro, bioenergy) (blue): Shows the contribution of renewable energy sources.

  • Nuclear: Displays nuclear energy as a power source.

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The right side shows net greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 to 2100, providing a historical and predictive view of emissions trends.

• Temperature Increase: Also on the right, the resulting temperature increase above pre-industrial levels is displayed in both Celsius and Fahrenheit by 2100, illustrating the potential impact of different policies on global warming.

Graphs and Data

EN-Roads offers a range of graphs, including 12 primary graphs that cover:

• Drivers of the economy: Factors influencing economic activity.

• Energy demand: The total energy required for various activities.

• Cost of energy supplies: Expenses associated with different energy sources.

• Energy use: Distribution and consumption of energy across sectors.

• Carbon dioxide emissions: Amount of CO_2 released into the atmosphere.

• Greenhouse gas emissions: Total emissions of greenhouse gases.

• Temperature: Global temperature changes.

• Sea level rise: Increase in sea levels due to climate change.

In addition to the main graphs, over a hundred other graphs are available for detailed analysis. Advanced users can customize policies, such as setting a specific carbon price (e.g., $$75) by clicking on the three dots, allowing for tailored scenario creation.

Policy Information:

Clicking the 'i' button provides detailed information about each policy, including:

• Examples of the policy: Real-world applications of the policy.

• Policy messaging: How the policy is communicated.

• Underlying dynamics: The mechanisms through which the policy works.

• Potential co-benefits: Additional advantages of the policy.

• Equity considerations: How the policy affects different groups.

• Exact settings: Specific parameters and configurations.

• Case studies: Examples of the policy's implementation and impact.

The full user guide and documentation can be accessed for detailed information on policies and general information about EN-Roads.

Interface Controls

• Undo/Redo: Use the back and forward buttons to undo or redo policy changes, facilitating iterative scenario development.

• Replay: The 'replay last change' button replays the last action over three times for better visualization, enhancing understanding of immediate impacts.

• Reset: Resets all policies and assumptions to their default settings, allowing users to start from a clean slate.

• Home: Returns to the main graphs view, providing quick access to the primary interface.

Scientific Basis and Validation

EN-Roads is built on the best available science, utilizing data from sources such as NASA, the Met Office, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The model's historical data is compared against other scenarios, and it is tested against large integrated assessment models (IAM) from research laboratories worldwide. This validation process involves:

• Inputting similar data into EN-Roads and IAMs.

• Comparing the outputs.

• Identifying gaps and improving the model.

One example cited is a comparison with three integrated assessment models coordinated by the Network for Greening the Financial System.

Model Transparency

All equations used in the model are available in the reference guide on the EN-Roads website. Users can review equations, sectors, and parameters within the model. Many parameters can be adjusted in the assumption sector. For instance, users can modify the climate sensitivity to a doubling of carbon dioxide and observe the resulting temperature changes. References behind these analyses are also provided.

Usage Scenarios

EN-Roads can be used in various settings:

• Individual exploration: Users can independently investigate climate scenarios.

• Small group discussions: Facilitates collaborative analysis and debate.

• EN-Roads climate workshops: Structured workshops to explore climate solutions.

• Climate action simulation (a role-playing game): Engaging simulations to understand policy impacts.

• Student assignments: Educational tool for climate science and policy courses.

Advanced Features

Kaya Identity

The drivers of carbon dioxide emissions can be analyzed using Kaya graphs, which break down emissions into four main drivers:

• Global population: Total number of people on Earth.

• Global growth in GDP per capita: Economic output per person.

• Energy intensity of GDP: Energy used per unit of economic output.

• Carbon intensity of total final energy: Carbon emissions per unit of energy.

Additional advanced graphs include stacked greenhouse gas emissions, providing detailed insights into emission sources.

Air Pollution

The simulator allows users to explore the drivers of air pollution from energy sources and examine the effects of policies like carbon pricing on air pollution, offering a co-benefit analysis of climate policies.

Marginal Cost of Energy

Users can explore the marginal cost of various energy supplies, observing the decreasing costs of wind and solar energy over time, especially with subsidies, which can inform investment decisions.

Sharing Scenarios

Users can share their scenarios via Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, or email. A scenario can be copied as a URL, facilitating easy collaboration and dissemination.

Actions and Outcomes Summary

The actions and outcomes view provides a summary of all policy changes made by the user, along with key outcomes such as:

• Temperature change: The projected change in global temperature.

• Concentration: Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.

• Sea level rise: The anticipated rise in sea levels.

• Cumulative avoided emissions: The total amount of emissions prevented by the policies.

Support and Updates

• Support Page: Offers a comprehensive FAQ section and the ability to submit technical questions via support tickets, ensuring user assistance.

• Release Notes: Monthly release notes detail updates and new features added to the model based on the latest scientific discoveries, keeping users informed of improvements.

• Translations: The simulator is available in multiple languages, with more being added, enhancing accessibility.

Purpose

The primary goal of EN-Roads is to enhance decision-makers' understanding of the dynamics within the climate system and promote actions that address climate change and related equity issues. The simulator aims to empower users to make a significant positive impact on the world.