PLSC14 International Relations
## I. Introduction to International Relations
[[International Relations]] (IR) is the study of relationships among the world's governments. Its central focus is the [[collective goods problem]]: how a group can serve its collective interests when doing so requires members to forgo their individual interests. The field seeks to understand the sources, consequences, and avoidance of conflict, particularly war.
The dominant trend shaping contemporary IR is [[globalization]], characterized by:
1. Ease of global travel
2. Expanding communications technology
3. Integrated markets
Key Actors in IR:
- [[State Actors]]: Territorial entities with [[sovereignty]] (e.g., nations).
- [[Nonstate Actors]] / [[Transnational Actors]]: [[Intergovernmental Organizations]] (IGOs like [[UN]], [[NATO]]), [[Nongovernmental Organizations]] (NGOs like Red Cross), [[Multinational Corporations]] (MNCs), and others (terrorist networks, individuals).
- [[Substate Actors]]: Entities within a country that influence its foreign policy.
## II. Levels of Analysis: Explaining Conflict
[[Kenneth Waltz]], in [[Man, the State, and War]], categorized theories on the causes of war into three [[Levels of Analysis]]:
### A. Individual Level: Human Nature
Theories attributing war to innate human characteristics.
- [[Thomas Hobbes]]: Humans are acquisitive, desired goods are finite, so conflict is inevitable ("nasty, brutish, and short"). Solution: strong central authority.
- [[Sigmund Freud]]: Humans have life ([[Eros]]) and death ([[Thanatos]]) instincts, extrapolated to civilizations. Criticized as teleological and unscientific, with a level-of-analysis problem.
- [[Konrad Lorenz]]: Ethologist who argued animals have "ritual combat" and submission mechanisms; humans lack submission, leading to lethal conflict. Criticized for group selectionism and ignoring war's rational, political context.
General Critiques of Human Nature Theories:
1. [[Level of analysis]] Problem: Applying individual traits to state behavior.
2. Constant vs. Variable: [[Human nature]] is a theoretical constant, but war is a variable occurrence. A constant cannot explain a variable.
### B. State Level: Nature of the State
Theories focusing on internal characteristics of states.
- [[Vladimir Lenin]]: [[Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism]]. [[Capitalism]] leads to wealth concentration, worker impoverishment (underconsumption), and imperialist expansion for new markets, causing war. Criticized as historically narrow ([[imperialism]] is newer than war) and economically flawed (developed states invest in each other, not just poor countries).
- [[Woodrow Wilson]]: Believed multi-national autocratic states were conflict-prone; democratic, homogeneous states are peaceful. Advocated for breaking up empires. Problem: Wealthy multi-ethnic states can be stable.
- [[Joseph Schumpeter]]: States evolve from territorial protection to providing [[collective goods]]. A vestigial class (e.g., military) may still benefit from aggressive foreign policy.
- [[Immanuel Kant]]: Republican governments, a league of nations, and increased trade foster peace. Modern corollaries: the [[Democratic Peace]] (democracies rarely fight each other), international organizations, and economic interdependence reduce conflict likelihood.
### C. Systemic Level: Nature of the International System
Theories focusing on the structure of interactions among states, characterized by [[anarchy]] (lack of a central world government).
#### 1. Foundational Thought: Rousseau & Game Theory
- [[Jean-Jacques Rousseau]]: "[[Stag Hunt]]" allegory illustrates the tension between individual and collective rationality, similar to the [[Prisoner's Dilemma]].
#### 2. The [[Prisoner's Dilemma]] (PD)
A model of strategic interaction where individual rational choices lead to a collectively worse outcome.
- Structure: Two players can Cooperate or Defect. Mutual cooperation yields a good outcome (3,3), but defecting while the other cooperates yields the best individual outcome (4,1). Mutual defection is worse than mutual cooperation (2,2). Defecting is the [[dominant strategy]].
- Applications: [[Arms Race]]s, trade policy, pollution.
- Escaping the Dilemma:
- [[Repeated Play]]: Long-term interactions (facilitated by international organizations) incentivize cooperation.
- [[Central Authority]]: A "third party" (like the UN, [[WTO]], [[ICC]]) to enforce rules and punish defectors.
#### 3. Systemic Theories
- [[Neorealism]] (Structural Realism): Views international outcomes through the distribution of capabilities (power) in an anarchic system. Focuses on [[polarity]] (unipolar, bipolar, multipolar systems) and alliance formation for [[balance of power]].
- [[Neoliberalism]]: Emphasizes states' incentives to cooperate. Believes institutions can facilitate repeated interaction, reduce communication costs, and punish defection, mitigating anarchy's effects.
## III. Power, Realism, and Statecraft
### A. Core Realist Principles
- [[Realism]] explains IR in terms of power (_[[realpolitik]]_), developed in reaction to [[idealism]] (which emphasizes law, morality, and institutions).
- The [[international system]] is anarchic, forcing states into [[self-help]]. Power is based on [[capabilities]].
- Key norms: [[sovereignty]] (supreme authority over territory) and [[diplomacy]].
- The [[security dilemma]]: One state's efforts to increase its security (e.g., building arms) can threaten others, leading to arms races.
### B. Distribution of Power & Polarity
- [[Balance of Power]]: The process by which states counterbalance a rising power through alliances. [[Bandwagoning]] (aligning with the strongest) is an alternative.
- [[Great Powers]]: Most powerful states (e.g., US, Russia, China, UK, France, Germany, Japan). [[Middle Powers]] have less influence.
- [[Polarity]]: Structure of the system based on power centers.
- [[Multipolar]]: Many power centers.
- [[Bipolar]]: Two major rivals/alliance blocs (e.g., [[Cold War]]).
- [[Unipolar]]: One hegemon (e.g., post-Cold War US). [[Hegemony]] leads to [[hegemonic stability theory]].
- [[Power transition theory]]: Major wars are likely when a rising, dissatisfied challenger nears parity with a dominant hegemon.
### C. U.S. Foreign Policy & Alliances
- U.S. policy alternates between [[internationalism]] and [[isolationism]]. Internationalism can be [[multilateral]] (working through institutions) or [[unilateral]] (acting alone, e.g., 2003 Iraq War).
- [[Alliances]]: Coalitions for mutual security. Key concepts: [[alliance cohesion]], [[burden sharing]], [[client states]], and [[extended deterrence]] (protecting allies).
- Key Alliances: [[NATO]] (collective defense via Article V) and the [[U.S.-Japanese Security Treaty]].
### D. Statecraft and Strategies
- [[Statecraft]]: The art of managing state affairs in a world of power politics.
- [[Deterrence]]: Threatening punishment to prevent an action.
- [[Compellence]]: Threatening force to make an actor do something.
- [[Arms Race]]: Reciprocal military build-up.
## IV. Decision-Making Models: How States Act
Three models explain how foreign policy decisions are made.
### A. [[Unitary Rational Actor]] ([[Rational Model]])
Assumes the state is a single, rational entity maximizing its utility.
- Process: Identifies goals, alternatives, consequences, then makes a choice.
- Modifications:
- [[Bounded Rationality]]: Decision-makers "satisfice" due to information costs.
- [[Prospect Theory]]: Decisions are framed around a reference point; losses are feared more than gains are valued.
- Application - [[Cuban Missile Crisis]]:
- Soviet Motives Possible: Bargaining chip, diverting trap, Cuban defense, Cold War politics, missile power parity. The rational actor model finds none fully convincing.
- U.S. Response: Chose a naval blockade over doing nothing, diplomacy, secret talks, invasion, or air strike. Blockade was a firm but non-lethal action placing the onus on Khrushchev.
- Outcome: Soviets withdrew missiles, averting war. Model views both sides as rationally weighing goals (appear strong, avoid nuclear war).
### B. [[Organizational Process]] Model
Assumes state actions are outputs of large organizations following [[Standard Operating Procedures]] (SOPs).
- Policy results from bureaucratic bargaining and compromise, not unified national interest.
- Application - Cuban Missile Crisis:
- Explains inconsistencies: Secrecy in shipping (GRU/KGB SOPs) vs. visibility in Cuba (Air Defense Command SOPs); simultaneous MRBM/IRBM construction (Strategic Rocket Forces SOPs); soft silos and poor air defense (construction pace SOPs).
- Explains U.S. blockade choice: Pre-existing contingency plans emphasized blockade over a risky air strike.
- Other Examples: [[Von Schlieffen Plan]]'s inflexibility; U.S. military's initial struggle with [[counterinsurgency]] in Vietnam.
### C. [[Governmental Politics]] Model
Assumes foreign policy results from bargaining and politics among individuals in small groups within the government.
- [[Groupthink]]: In [[crisis]]es, small groups can make poor decisions due to overconfidence, close-mindedness, and pressure for conformity.
- Examples: [[Bay of Pigs Invasion]] (flawed assumptions weren't challenged), [[Iran Contra]], [[Challenger disaster]].
- [[Arrow's Theorem]] ([[The Impossibility Theorem]]): Even if individuals are rational, group voting mechanisms cannot guarantee a rational, transitive group preference. Agenda-setting power matters (e.g., RFK in ExComm).
- Individual Decision-Makers: Psychology affects choices through [[misconception]]s, [[affective bias]] (emotions), and [[cognitive bias]] (e.g., reducing [[cognitive dissonance]] via wishful thinking, mirror imaging, historical analogies).
- [[Domestic]] Influences: [[Bureaucracies]], [[Interest Groups]] (lobbyists, ethnic groups), the [[Military Industrial Complex]], [[Public Opinion]], and legislatures shape foreign policy.
## V. Conflict and War
### A. Types of War
- [[Hegemonic War]]: Over control of the international system (world war).
- [[Total War]]: War of conquest and occupation (e.g., [[Napoleonic Wars]]).
- [[Limited War]]: Military actions with limited objectives (e.g., raids).
- [[Civil War]]: Conflict within a state over its government.
- [[Guerrilla War]]: Irregular forces operating among civilians.
### B. Causes of War: A Multi-Level Approach
- Individual Level: War as rational choice or deviation from rationality.
- Domestic Level: State/society characteristics making violence more likely.
- Interstate Level: Power relations (e.g., [[Power Transition]], [[Deterrence]], [[Arms Races]]).
- Global Level: Cyclical theories (e.g., long economic waves/[[Kondratieff cycles]]) or linear change (technology/norms reducing war).
### C. Conflicts of Ideas
- [[Nationalism]]: Devotion to one's nation, linked to [[self-determination]].
- [[Ethnic Conflict]]: Driven by ethnic hatred, often over territory, leading to [[ethnic cleansing]] or [[genocide]]. Fuelled by [[ethnocentrism]] (in-group bias).
- [[Religious Conflict]]: Involves core, absolute values.
- [[Islamist movements]]: Seek government based on [[Islamic Law]]. Include violent (e.g., [[ISIS]], [[al Qaeda]], [[Hamas]], [[Hezbollah]]) and non-violent groups. The [[Sunni]]-[[Shi'ite]] divide is a major fault line.
- [[Ideological Conflict]]: (e.g., capitalism vs. communism). Realists downplay its importance relative to power. [[Revolution]]s matter because they change power calculations.
### D. Conflicts of Interest
- [[Territorial Disputes]]: Over borders (**[[irredentism]]**) or [[secession]]. Since WWII, few borders changed by force. Disputes often over small islands/strategic waters. [[UNCLOS]] governs territorial waters and EEZs.
- Control of Governments: Internal struggles over who governs an existing state.
- [[Economic Conflict]]: Less likely to cause war due to mutual gains from trade. Exceptions: mercantilist policies, [[lateral pressure]] for resources, drug trafficking (treated as security issue).
## VI. Military Force and Terrorism
### A. Conventional Forces
States maintain militaries for deterrence, compellence, and other roles (peacekeeping, etc.).
- Land Forces: Control territory; [[counterinsurgency]] aims to "win hearts and minds."
- Naval Forces: Control seas; [[power projection]] (e.g., U.S. aircraft carriers).
- Air Forces: Strategic bombing, air support, interception, reconnaissance, airlift.
- Coordination: Logistics, intelligence, space capabilities ([[GPS]]), electronic/cyber warfare, stealth technology.
### B. Terrorism
- Definition: Politically motivated violence against non-combatants by non-state actors, intended to influence an audience. "[[State-sponsored terrorism]]" involves state use of terrorist proxies.
- Why Groups Use Terrorism: A rational strategy for weak actors to amplify psychological impact. Common against democracies.
- Terrorist Strategies:
- [[Coercion]]: Force policy change.
- [[Provocation]]: Induce disproportionate retaliation to gain sympathy.
- [[Spoiling]]: Sabotage peace processes.
- [[Outbidding]]: Compete with rival groups for popular support.
- [[Counterterrorism]]: Spectrum from economic development and policing to military force.
- Counterterrorism Strategies:
- [[Deterrence]] (threat of retaliation): Difficult against stateless networks.
- [[Defense]] (hardening targets): Expensive and can be circumvented.
- [[Preemption]] (attacking first): Can be costly and create negative image.
- [[Negotiation]]: Rare due to fear of encouraging more terrorism (viewed as a repeated game where refusing to negotiate establishes credibility).
- [[Counterinsurgency]]: "Wins hearts and minds" through nation-building.
### C. Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs)
- [[Nuclear Weapons]]:
- [[Fission weapons]] ([[Atomic bombs]]): Use [[uranium-235]] or [[plutonium]].
- [[Fusion weapons]] ([[Thermonuclear bombs]]): Much more powerful.
- Effects: Blast, heat, radiation (**[[nuclear fallout]]**), electromagnetic pulse.
- Delivery Systems: [[Ballistic Missiles]] ([[ICBM]]s, [[SRBM]]s), [[cruise missiles]].
- [[Chemical Weapons]] & [[Biological Weapons]]: Banned by the [[Chemical Weapons Convention]] (1992) and [[Biological Weapons Convention]] (1972).
- [[Proliferation]]: Spread of WMDs. The [[Non-Proliferation Treaty]] (NPT) aims to control it.
- Nuclear Strategy & Arms Control:
- Goal is deterrence and ensuring [[second-strike capability]] (**[[Mutually Assured Destruction]] - MAD**).
- [[Arms Control]]: Reciprocal limits (e.g., [[SALT]], [[ABM Treaty]], [[START]]).
- Control of Militaries: Via [[chain of command]] and [[civilian supremacy]] (to prevent [[coup d'état]]).
## VII. International Political Economy (IPE)
### A. Trade Relations
- [[Balance of Trade]] (BOT): Exports minus imports. [[Trade surplus]] (exports > imports); [[trade deficit]] (imports > exports).
- Theories of Trade:
- [[Mercantilism]] (Realist): Emphasizes relative gains, advocates trade surpluses as a form of power.
- [[Liberalism]]: Emphasizes absolute gains, [[comparative advantage]], and efficiency from free trade.
- [[Marxism]]/[[Leninism]]: Focuses on exploitation of developing countries.
- Politics of Trade: [[Market imperfections]] ([[monopoly]], [[oligopoly]]) and political interventions ([[taxation]], [[tariffs]], [[sanctions]], [[autarky]]).
- [[Protectionism]]: Shielding domestic industries via tariffs, [[quotas]], [[subsidies]], and regulations.
- International Trade System:
- [[World Trade Organization]] (WTO): Multilateral system promoting free trade.
- Principles: [[Nondiscrimination]] ([[Most Favored Nation]]), [[reciprocity]], [[domestic safeguards]].
- [[Dispute Settlement]]: Panel rulings; retaliation authorized for non-compliance.
- Bilateral/Regional Agreements: e.g., [[NAFTA]], [[EU]] (a customs union/common market).
- Collective Action in Trade: [[Cartels]] (e.g., [[OPEC]]) try to manipulate prices.
- Globalization Backlash: Resistance from nationalists, displaced workers, environmentalists.
### B. Monetary Relations & Finance
- Money & Policy: States use [[fiscal policy]] (taxing/spending) and [[monetary policy]] (controlling money supply) for economic management.
- [[Exchange Rate]]s:
- [[Fixed Exchange Rate]]: Government-set rates.
- [[Floating Exchange Rate]]: Market-determined rates.
- [[Managed float system]]: Occasional government intervention.
- Why Currencies Change Value: Speculation (short-term); money supply/[[inflation]], trade balances (long-term). [[Devaluation]] can be used to boost exports.
- [[Central Banks]] (e.g., U.S. [[Federal Reserve]]): Maintain currency value, control inflation via [[discount rate]]s.
- [[Balance of Payments]]: Summary of all international money flows.
1. [[Current Account]]: Balance of trade in goods/services, plus government transactions and remittances.
2. [[Capital Flows]]: Net foreign investment ([[FDI]] and portfolio investment).
3. [[Changes in Reserves]]: Makes the national accounts balance.
- International Financial Institutions:
- [[IMF]]: Provides loans with [[conditionality]] (policy reforms required).
- [[World Bank]]: Focuses on development projects.
- Historical System: [[Bretton Woods System]] (1944-1971) established fixed exchange rates pegged to the US dollar/gold, the IMF, and World Bank. Collapsed due to the [[dollar overhang]] and lack of confidence, leading to the current floating system.
- [[The Impossible Trinity]]: A state cannot simultaneously have all three: 1) Fixed exchange rate, 2) [[Free Capital Flow]]s, 3) [[Independent Monetary Policy]]. Must choose two.
### C. [[Foreign Direct Investment]] ([[FDI]]) & [[Multinational Corporations]] ([[MNC]]s)
- Why MNCs Invest Overseas: Market access, resources, efficiency (cheap labor), getting around trade barriers.
- MNC Structures:
- [[Horizontal Integration]]: Same activity in multiple countries (e.g., Coca-Cola).
- [[Vertical Integration]]: Controlling multiple steps of production (e.g., Chiquita).
- Host Country Dilemma: MNCs bring investment, tech, jobs (benefits) but may repatriate profits and offer limited real transfers (costs).
- Bargaining: Host country and MNC bargain over terms. The [[Obsolescing Bargain Model]]: MNC power high initially, shifts to host over time (especially for resource extraction).
- MNCs and Labor: Can improve wages in poor countries but also eliminate jobs in advanced ones via offshoring.
## VIII. North-South Relations and Development
### A. The Development Challenge
- [[Global South]] ([[LDC]]s): Characterized by poverty, reliance on primary commodity exports (**[[mono-exporters]]**), and vulnerability.
- [[Basic Human Needs]]: Food security, child health (via UNICEF methods), education, women's status.
- [[Migration]] & [[Refugees]]: Result from deprivation. [[Remittances]] are funds sent home by migrants.
### B. Theories of Accumulation & Inequality
- [[Capitalist]] (Liberal) View: Stresses efficiency and growth; inequality is a temporary lag.
- [[Socialist]]/[[Marxist]] View: Stresses distribution; sees a [[zero-sum game]] relationship where the North exploits the South.
- [[World-Systems Theory]] (Marxist global level): Divides world into [[core]] (manufacturing), [[periphery]] (raw materials), and [[semi-periphery]]. Periphery suffers from a [[resource curse]]**.
### C. Imperialism and Post-Colonialism
- [[Imperialism]]: Conquest and control of colonies. [[Lenin]] tied it to capitalist finance.
- [[Colonialism]]'s Legacy: Shaped economies to serve colonizers, left administrative gaps.
- [[Neocolonialism]]/[[Dependency Theory]]: Continued economic dependence of former colonies via debt, MNC control, and unfair trade. [[Enclave economy|Enclave economies]] exemplify this.
### D. Strategies for Development
- Historical Policy Shifts: Liberalism (pre-WWI) → Protectionism (mid-20th century) → Liberalism again (post-1980s).
- [[Structuralism]]: Argues government intervention is needed to industrialize due to market imperfections (e.g., coordination problems like the "Battle of the Sexes" game).
- [[Singer-Prebisch Theory]]: Argues terms of trade deteriorate for primary commodity exporters over time, widening the North-South gap.
- [[Import Substitution Industrialization]] (ISI): Protectionist policy to build domestic industry. Fell out of favor after the 1980s debt crisis.
- [[Structural Adjustment]]: IMF/World Bank-mandated reforms (macro stability, trade liberalization, privatization) in exchange for loans.
- [[Export-Led Growth]]: Strategy of the "[[Asian Tigers]]" (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan), combining state intervention with a focus on exports. Successfully led to high growth but contributed to the [[1997 Asian Financial Crisis]] (caused by volatile short-term capital flows, moral hazard, and fixed exchange rates).
### E. Capital Flows for Development
- [[Foreign Investment]]: Direct ownership by MNCs, often via [[joint ventures]].
- [[Debt]]: Loans require [[debt service]]. [[Debt renegotiation]] (via [[Paris Club]]/[[London Club]]) is common. [[IMF conditionality]] attaches policy strings to loans.
- [[Foreign Aid]]: Mostly bilateral grants from [[DAC]] countries. Can be politically motivated or humanitarian (**[[disaster relief]]**).
## IX. Global Issues: Environment, Resources, Population
### A. The Environment as a Collective Goods Problem
- Types of Goods (based on rivalry and excludability):
- [[Private goods]] (Rival, Excludable): e.g., consumer goods.
- [[Club goods]] (Non-Rival, Excludable): e.g., country clubs.
- [[Common Goods]] (Rival, Non-Excludable): e.g., fisheries, atmosphere → leads to [[tragedy of the commons]].
- [[Public goods]] (Non-Rival, Non-Excludable): e.g., national defense → leads to [[free riding]].
- Solutions: Markets (**[[property rights]]**, [[Coase's Theorem]]), international regimes, hegemony.
### B. Key Environmental Issues
- Atmosphere:
- [[Global Warming]]: Caused by [[greenhouse gasses]] (CO2, methane, CFCs). A collective goods problem with high costs now for distant benefits. Governed by the [[Kyoto Protocol]] and [[carbon emission credits]].
- [[Ozone Depletion]]: Caused by CFCs. The [[Montreal Protocol]] (1987) is a successful case of international cooperation due to lower costs and clear dangers.
- [[Biodiversity]]: Loss due to habitat destruction. Conflict between free traders and environmentalists.
- Forests & Oceans: [[UNCLOS]] governs oceans as the [[common heritage of mankind]]. [[Antarctica]] is managed by treaty.
- Pollution: Often a regional issue (e.g., acid rain, water pollution).
### C. Natural Resources
- Energy: Oil, coal, natural gas are central to geopolitics and conflict.
- Minerals: Uneven distribution (e.g., China's rare earth monopoly).
- Water: Growing scarcity, especially in the Middle East, leads to disputes.
### D. Population
- [[Demographic transition]]: Process where death rates fall first, then birth rates fall with development. Rapid growth can hinder per capita income growth.
- Disease: Major mortality factors (HIV/AIDS, infectious diseases) affect development.
## X. Historical Context of the International System
### A. Evolving International Systems
- World Wars (1900-1950):
- [[WWI]]: Triggered by alliance systems and the [[cult of the offensive]]. Ended with the punitive [[Treaty of Versailles]] and the failed [[League of Nations]].
- [[WWII]]: Result of Axis expansionism, Allied appeasement (**[[Munich Agreement]]**), and global conflict. Ended with U.S. nuclear use.
- The [[Cold War]] (1945-1990): Bipolar conflict between US ([[NATO]]) and USSR ([[Warsaw Pact]]). Key events: [[Marshall Plan]], [[Korean War]], [[Cuban Missile Crisis]], [[Vietnam War]], Soviet war in Afghanistan, fall of the [[Berlin Wall]].
- Post-Cold War Era (1990-2015): Characterized by US hegemony, new conflicts, and terrorism.
- Key Events: [[Gulf War]] (1991), Yugoslav Wars & NATO intervention, Rwandan genocide, [[September 11, 2001]] and the "[[War on Terrorism]]" (Afghanistan, Iraq), [[Arab Spring]], persistent [[Israeli-Palestinian Conflict]], rise of China.