Acknowledge the situation regarding cyclone Alfred; decisions about classes will be communicated by UQ later via email.
Potential for classes to move online based on the impact of the cyclone; safety is prioritized.
Importance of focusing on key concepts for notes and exam preparation.
Conceptual understanding is more valuable than memorization.
Demographic Transition: Understanding mortality and its impact.
Mortality Measures: Includes epidemiological conditions, crude death rates, and total life expectancy.
Neo-Malthusian Theory: Historical context of rapid population growth concerns.
Discussion of how birth rates and fertility change over time, particularly after mortality rates decline.
Investigation into how low fertility levels can impact societal structures and age distribution.
Historical fears of a "population bomb" did not materialize due to declines in fertility observed initially in South Africa and parts of Asia.
Current examples of low fertility rates in countries like China and South Korea (e.g., South Korea at 0.8 children per woman).
Demographic Equation: Population = Previous Population + Natural Increase (Births - Deaths + Migration).
Global Birth Rate Trends:
Births peaked in the late 1980s and have been declining since.
Developed countries are experiencing more deaths than births, entering a phase of population decline.
Population growth is shifting towards less developed countries, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa.
Importance of understanding different fertility measures:
Crude Birth Rate: Number of births per 1,000 people.
Total Fertility Rate: Expected number of children a woman will have during her lifetime based on current conditions.
Net Reproduction Rate: Focuses on female offspring that survive to childbearing age.
Limitations of Crude Birth Rate: Doesn't account for age structure or reproductive age population.
Total fertility rate can provide clearer insights but is still dynamic and subject to change.
The total fertility rate needed to maintain the population is approximately 2.1.
Discussion of varying trends in different countries regarding fertility rates since 1950s.
Countries like Australia, Thailand, and South Korea are below replacement level; interventions in Thailand lowered fertility successfully through education and accessibility to contraception.
Countries such as Afghanistan and Nigeria still exhibit high fertility rates, but declines are slower than expected.
The understanding of fertility requires a global lens:
Fertility remains high in many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa and is significant for future global population growth.
Factors influencing high fertility: economic benefits of children or support in later life.
Significance of social, cultural, and economic contexts in understanding fertility trends.
Anti-natalist Policies: Aimed at reducing fertility, such as China's one-child policy.
Example of less intrusive interventions: Education and access to family planning in Thailand.
Pro-natalist Policies: Strategies to encourage higher birth rates, including financial incentives and changing social attitudes towards family size.
Recent interventions in Australia have not led to increased fertility levels despite greater support for families.
The complex interplay of economic and social factors makes it challenging to directly influence fertility outcomes.
Trends indicate rising childlessness and fewer transitions to second births.
The socio-economic costs of raising children and the implications of delayed adulthood on fertility levels.
Projecting future fertility rates in Australia indicates stabilization around 1.5 children per woman.
Understanding the implications of low fertility on aging populations will be discussed in future lectures.