RISK 2 - Effect of War

RISK 2

EFFECT OF WAR ON BUSINESS

  • Examines the ramifications of wartime scenarios on businesses.

Page 1: Introduction

  • The interaction between war and business performance.

Page 3: The State of Peace

2024 Global Peace Index

  • Peace levels categorized as very high, high, medium, low, very low, and not included.

  • Improvements: 65 countries marked advancements in peace.

  • Deteriorations: 97 countries witnessed declines in peace.

Page 4: Examples of War

  • Mentioned conflicts: Ukraine/Russia, Israel/Palestine, 9/11 incident.

  • Focus on effects rather than choosing sides.

Page 5: Effects of War

  • Always present consequences:

    • Loss of human lives leading to suffering.

    • Destruction of infrastructure.

    • Economic losses in various sectors.

Page 6: Economic Effects

Direct Effects on Business:

  • Loss of life affecting:

    • Employees and their family members, reducing workforce.

    • Customers affecting sales.

  • Destruction of infrastructure, buildings, and equipment.

  • Responsibility for costs:

    • Who is liable?

    • Role of insurance in recovery.

  • Psychological costs add to economic effects.

Page 7: Continuing Economic Effects

Indirect Effects on Business:

  • Increased costs in business operations:

    • Decline in consumer demand.

    • Increased transaction costs (new suppliers).

    • Higher salaries for at-risk employees.

    • A drop in foreign direct investment.

    • Potential new government regulation (e.g., increased taxes).

    • Overall impact on GDP.

Page 8: Supply Chain Effects of War

  • Key impacts on supply chains:

    • Transportation difficulties leading to delays.

    • Uncertain delivery schedules.

    • Goods and service shortages.

    • Businesses face vulnerabilities not only to attacks but also to disruptions in the supply chain.

Page 9: Business Opportunities During War

  • Explore potential opportunities during conflict situations.

Page 10: Further Effects on Society

  • Avoidance of public transport by locals.

  • Decrease in tourism following an attack.

  • Consumer consumption typically decreases temporarily.

  • Rise in defense and security spending.

  • Increases in racism and ethnic tensions.

  • Psychological fears influence spending habits.

Page 11: Case Study - 9/11

  • Assessment of war impacts specifically regarding the 9/11 attacks.

Page 12: Impact on Air Traffic Post-9/11

  • Flight operations drastically altered:

    • US airspace was closed in the aftermath.

    • Illustrated an immediate effect on traffic and trade.

Page 13: Short/Medium Term Effects of 9/11

  • Key economic impacts captured:

    • Closed airspace for three days.

    • Diminished trade volume lasting four years.

    • Several airlines faced bankruptcy.

    • Heightened security measures created new trade barriers.

Page 14: Local Economic Consequences of 9/11

  • Significant financial losses recorded:

    • $14 billion in destroyed office properties.

    • 100,000 jobs losses.

    • $50 billion depreciation in GCP.

    • 20% reduction in air travel-related jobs.

Page 15: Anticipation and Preparation for Future Wars

  • Discussing if businesses can anticipate wartime events:

    • Importance of risk analysis and identifying risk hotspots.

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