6PolicePracRes453

Overview

• Paper Title: "Catching a Serial Rapist: Hits and Misses in Criminal Profiling"

• Author: Per Stangeland

• Source: Police Practice and Research, Vol. 6, No. 5, December 2005, pp. 453-469

• Focus: Case study on the police investigation of a serial rape case using geographic profiling.

Case Background

• Location: Malaga, Spain, historical city with approximately 600,000 residents.

• Crime Series: First 18 assaults occurred in the western part of the city with the rapist having no previous criminal record.

• Key Evidence: DNA and fingerprints tied the assaults to the same individual.

• Victim Profile: Predominantly young, married, attractive women targeted in their homes.

Geographic Profiling

• Key Theories:

  • Awareness Area: Area where the offender feels comfortable and familiar.

  • Activity Space: Locales where the offender engages in regular activities.

  • Buffer Zones: Areas around the offender's home where they are unlikely to offend due to recognition risks.

• Importance of Transport Assumptions: Assumptions about the offender's mode of transport critically affect the geographic profile.

• Recommendations: Combine geographic profiles with thorough on-site observations.

Methodology

• Data Analysis: Utilization of geographic information systems to analyze crime patterns and density.

• The Role of Technology: Cross-references with previous police data aided in identifying possible suspect areas.

Crime Characteristics

• Description of Offender's Behavior:

  • Initial Attacks: Attacks occurred mid-day, typically when victims were at home.

  • Adapting Strategies: The rapist increased his confidence over time, initially masked, later posing as a plumber.

• Changes in Modus Operandi: Shift from targeting married women to younger foreign women studying in language schools.

Findings

• Geographic Profile Attempts:

  • Density Maps: Based on crime site concentrations to predict potential home locations.

  • Circle Hypothesis: Home base likely within a defined radius based on crime locations, but often resulted in broad predictions.

• Comparison with Actual Offender Behavior:

  • Offender used a car instead of walking, which was a critical misjudgment in analyzing the crime pattern.

Key Errors and Insights

• Major Errors:

  • Misplaced assumptions about travel distance and mode (over-emphasis on walking rather than driving).

  • Poor interpretation of victims' descriptions regarding geographical areas.

• Insights from Arrest:

  • Despite profiling accuracy, the precise identification of the suspect remained elusive, underscoring challenges in real-world applications of geographic profiling.

  • Investigative techniques must evolve to effectively utilize technological advancements for profiling.

Conclusion

• Geographic profiling provided useful patterns to guide investigations but lacked precision for identifying the offender specifically.

• Need for improved methods for data access and analysis, particularly in contexts lacking prior criminal records.

• Future directions should include integrating more comprehensive datasets and refining assumptions about offenders' behaviors for better predictive outcomes.